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Abstract Previous studies demonstrate that the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulates tropical cyclone (TC) activity over various locations worldwide. Since TCs are associated with anomalous large‐scale circulations, they can influence the development of the MJO. However, the impact of TC on the MJO has not been thoroughly examined. This study investigates the influence of TC‐associated processes on the MJO development based on the analysis of a case observed during the Dynamics of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation field campaign. During the suppressed phase before the December 2011 MJO initiation, two TCs were active in the southern Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). A dry air band within 10°S‐Eq is sustained by TC‐induced horizontal advection and descent, inhibiting large‐scale convection in the southern equatorial IO. Consequently, convection is triggered and develops only in the northern TIO around Eq‐10°N. The MJO initiates as convection develops south of the equator after the TCs dissipate.
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Impact of MJO Propagation Speed on Active Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Periods
Abstract The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is often used for subseasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, TC activity still has considerable variability even given the state of the MJO. This study evaluates the connection between MJO propagation speed with Atlantic TC activity and possible physical mechanisms guiding this relation. We find the Atlantic sees the highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) during MJO phase 2. However, the odds of above average ACE in the Atlantic is greatest during slow MJO propagation. We find that slow propagation of the MJO results in lower vertical wind shear anomalies over the Caribbean and main development region compared with typical MJO propagation. Typical MJO propagation produces an amplified height pattern and lower height anomalies along the region of the tropical upper tropospheric trough which is known to impede Atlantic TC activity. Slow MJO propagation sees weaker height anomalies over the Atlantic.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1747781
- PAR ID:
- 10498309
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 51
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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