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Predicting the effects of anthropogenic climate change on Earth’s marine mollusk species is highly relevant, as many are critical human food resources and indispensable members of marine ecosystems. To predict which species will go extinct and which will survive, it is essential to understand the past climate species have experienced, as well as determine the relationship between functional traits, which provide a direct connection to organismal ecology, and survival. Many extant West Atlantic (WA) mollusks, especially gastropods and bivalves, survived the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period and the Last Interglacial, warm intervals compared to the present, that can serve as analogues for predicted future conditions of anthropogenic climate change. WA mollusks have an exceptional Neogene fossil record, which makes them an ideal group to study to develop a predictive extinction risk framework. The present research focuses on the correlation between functional traits and extinction in over 80 species of WA mollusks, both extant and extinct. Functional trait data such as body size, mobility, diet, bathymetric depth range, and organism-substrate relationship, which correlate with metabolic requirements, a known factor in extinction risk, and degree and type of ornamentation, shell shape in bivalves, and narrowness of the aperture in gastropods, which correlate with predation resistance, were collected across these species. These comprise both continuous and discrete character data. Various statistical tests were applied to the database to examine variable correlation/interaction, and the relative contributions of traits to extinction risk. Traits related to metabolism were strong predictors of survival; traits related to predation resistance play a less important role. While this study focuses on organismic traits, the aim of future research will be to explore how group characteristics such as geographic range are associated with functional traits and extinction risk for these species. A predictive framework is developed using patterns of extinction in the fossil record to infer survival of various species in the future, which will be relevant for evaluating the potential consequences of climate change, global change biology, and for determining which species should be targeted for conservation efforts.
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Using the Fossil Record to Understand Extinction Risk and Inform Marine Conservation in a Changing World
Understanding the long-term effects of ongoing global environmental change on marine ecosystems requires a cross-disciplinary approach. Deep-time and recent fossil records can contribute by identifying traits and environmental conditions associated with elevated extinction risk during analogous events in the geologic past and by providing baseline data that can be used to assess historical change and set management and restoration targets and benchmarks. Here, we review the ecological and environmental information available in the marine fossil record and discuss how these archives can be used to inform current extinction risk assessments as well as marine conservation strategies and decision-making at global to local scales. As we consider future research directions in deep-time and conservationpaleobiology, we emphasize the need for coproduced research that unites researchers, conservation practitioners, and policymakers with the communities for whom the impacts of climate and global change are most imminent.
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- PAR ID:
- 10498415
- Publisher / Repository:
- Annual Reviews
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Annual Review of Marine Science
- Volume:
- 16
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1941-1405
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 307 to 333
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-021723-095235
