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Maintaining the functionality of wastewater networks is critical to individual well-being, business continuity, public health, and safety. However, seismic damage and loss assessments of wastewater networks traditionally use fragility functions based on median repair rates without considering relevant sources of uncertainty and correlations of damage when estimating potential damage states and pipe repairs. This study presents a probabilistic methodology to incorporate modeling uncertainty (e.g. model parameter and model class uncertainty) and spatial correlations (e.g. spatial auto- and cross-correlation) of pipe repairs. The methodology was applied to a case study backbone system of a wastewater network in Portland, OR, using the expected hazard intensity maps for multiple deterministic earthquake scenarios, including a moment magnitude M6.8 Portland Hills Fault and M8.1, M8.4, M8.7, and M9.0 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) events. As spatial-correlation models of pipeline damage were non-existent in the literature and local information on costs to repair the pipes was limited at the time of this study, correlation methods and repair costs were proposed to estimate lower and upper bounds of pipe damage and loss. The results show how the consideration of different levels of uncertainty and spatial correlation for pipe repair rate could lead to different probabilistic estimates of damage and loss at the system level of the wastewater network, even though the point estimates, such as the mean and median, remain essentially unaltered.
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Consequences of consequence models: The impact of economies of scale on seismic loss estimates
The detailed evaluation of expected losses and damage experienced by structural and nonstructural components is a fundamental part of performance-based seismic design and assessment. The FEMA P-58 methodology represents the state of the art in this area. Increasing interest in improving structural performance and community resilience has led to widespread adoption of this methodology and the library of component models published with it. This study focuses on the modeling of economies of scale for repair cost calculation and specifically highlights the lack of a definition for aggregate damage, a quantity with considerable influence on the component repair costs. The article illustrates the highly variable and often substantial impact of damage aggregation that can alter total repair costs by more than 25%. Four so-called edge cases representing different damage aggregation methods are introduced to investigate which components experience large differences in their repair costs and under what circumstances. A three-step evaluation strategy is proposed that allows engineers to quickly evaluate the potential impact of damage aggregation on a specific performance assessment. This helps users of currently available assessment tools to recognize and communicate this uncertainty even when the tools they use only support one particular damage aggregation method. A case study of a 9-story building illustrates the proposed strategy and the impact of this ambiguity on the performance of a realistic structure. The article concludes with concrete recommendations toward the development of a more sophisticated model for repair consequence calculation.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2131111
- PAR ID:
- 10503183
- Publisher / Repository:
- Earthquake Spectra
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earthquake Spectra
- ISSN:
- 8755-2930
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231220001
