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Abstract Following the failure to fully achieve any of the 20 Aichi biodiversity targets, the future of biodiversity rests in the balance. The Convention on Biological Diversity's Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) presents the opportunity to preserve nature's contributions to people (NCPs) for current and future generations by conserving biodiversity and averting extinctions. There is a need to safeguard the tree of life—the unique and shared evolutionary history of life on Earth—to maintain the benefits it bestows into the future. Two indicators have been adopted within the GBF to monitor progress toward safeguarding the tree of life: the phylogenetic diversity (PD) indicator and the evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) index. We applied both to the world's mammals, birds, and cycads to show their utility at the global and national scale. The PD indicator can be used to monitor the overall conservation status of large parts of the evolutionary tree of life, a measure of biodiversity's capacity to maintain NCPs for future generations. The EDGE index is used to monitor the performance of efforts to conserve the most distinctive species. The risk to PD of birds, cycads, and mammals increased, and mammals exhibited the greatest relative increase in threatened PD over time. These trends appeared robust to the choice of extinction risk weighting. EDGE species had predominantly worsening extinction risk. A greater proportion of EDGE mammals (12%) had increased extinction risk compared with threatened mammals in general (7%). By strengthening commitments to safeguarding the tree of life, biodiversity loss can be reduced and thus nature's capacity to provide benefits to humanity now and in the future can be preserved.
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Macroevolutionary constraints on global microbial diversity
Abstract Biologists have long sought to quantify the number of species on Earth. Often missing from these efforts is the contribution of microorganisms, the smallest but most abundant form of life on the planet. Despite recent large‐scale sampling efforts, estimates of global microbial diversity span many orders of magnitude. It is important to consider how speciation and extinction over the last 4 billion years constrain inventories of biodiversity. We parameterized macroevolutionary models based on birth–death processes that assume constant and universal speciation and extinction rates. The models reveal that richness beyond 1012species is feasible and in agreement with empirical predictions. Additional simulations suggest that mass extinction events do not place hard limits on modern‐day microbial diversity. Together, our study provides independent support for a massive global‐scale microbiome while shedding light on the upper limits of life on Earth.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2022049
- PAR ID:
- 10507754
- Publisher / Repository:
- John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology and Evolution
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 2045-7758
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10403
