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Abstract Shrubs are common – and presently expanding – across coastal barrier interiors (the land between the foredune system and back‐barrier bay), and have the potential to influence barrier morphodynamics by obstructing cross‐shore overwash flow. The ecological and geomorphological consequences of ecomorphodynamic couplings of the barrier interior, however, remain largely unexplored. In this contribution, we add an ecological module of shrub expansion and mortality to a spatially‐explicit exploratory model of barrier evolution (Barrier3D) to explore the effects of shrub‐barrier feedbacks. In our model simulations, we find that the presence of shrubs significantly alters barrier morphology and behavior. Over timescales of decades to centuries, barriers with shrubs (relative to those without) tend to be narrower, migrate landward more slowly, and have a greater proportion of subaerial volume distributed toward the ocean‐side of the barrier. Shrubs also tend to increase the likelihood of discontinuous barrier retreat, a behavior in which a barrier oscillates between periods of transgression and relative immobility, because shrubs induce prolonged periods of barrier immobility by obstructing overwash flow. However, shrubs can increase barrier vulnerability to drowning by preventing periods of transgression needed to maintain barrier elevation relative to rising sea levels. Additionally, physical barrier processes influence shrub expansion in our simulations; we find that greater dune erosion and overwash disturbance tends to slow the rate of shrub expansion across the barrier interior. Complementing recent observational studies of barrier islands in Virginia, USA, our results suggest that interior ecology can be a key component of barrier evolution on annual to centurial timescales.
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Predicting Barrier Island Shrub Presence Using Remote Sensing Products and Machine Learning Techniques
Abstract Barrier islands are highly dynamic coastal landforms that are economically, ecologically, and societally important. Woody vegetation located within barrier island interiors can alter patterns of overwash, leading to periods of periodic‐barrier island retreat. Due to the interplay between island interior vegetation and patterns of barrier island migration, it is critical to better understand the factors controlling the presence of woody vegetation on barrier islands. To provide new insight into this topic, we use remote sensing data collected by LiDAR, LANDSAT, and aerial photography to measure shrub presence, coastal dune metrics, and island characteristics (e.g., beach width, island width) for an undeveloped mixed‐energy barrier island system in Virginia along the US mid‐Atlantic coast. We apply decision tree and random forest machine learning methods to identify new empirical relationships between island geomorphology and shrub presence. We find that shrubs are highly likely (90% likelihood) to be present in areas where dune elevations are above ∼1.9 m and island interior widths are greater than ∼160 m and that shrubs are unlikely (10% likelihood) to be present in areas where island interior widths are less than ∼160 m regardless of dune elevation. Our machine learning predictions are 90% accurate for the Virginia Barrier Islands, with almost half of our incorrect predictions (5% of total transects) being attributable to system hysteresis; shrubs require time to adapt to changing conditions and therefore their growth and removal lags changes in island geomorphology, which can occur more rapidly.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1832221
- PAR ID:
- 10507864
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
- Volume:
- 129
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 2169-9003
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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