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Nannothemis bella Uhler, 1857 (Odonata: Libellulidae), the smallest dragonflyin North America, inhabit bogs and sedge fens across their distribution, spanning fromQuebec (Canada) south to Florida and west to Minnesota and Louisiana (USA). While commonin the northern part of their range, N. bella is of conservation concern in the southernpopulations where they are disjunct and rare. Little work has been done on the ecologyand geographic conservation of this species. To fill this knowledge gap, we constructedspecies distribution models (SDMs) to analyze the spatial distribution and climatic nicheof N. bella, define factors in habitat suitability and estimate potential niche shifts underclimate change and inform conservation efforts. Our present-day SDMs indicate the dominantenvironmental elements determining habitat suitability include the proportion of siltin soil, temperature seasonality, percentage of clay and coarse components in soil, and soilclass. Our paleodistribution models show a southern distribution within the last glacialmaximum, with a shift northward 8,326 to 4,200 years ago. Our projected SDMs for 2050under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 predict a significant decrease in habitat suitability throughoutthe entire range of N. bella. As such, N. bella is a species of conservation concern andconservation measures are imperative for its continued existence as a much-needed bioindicatorfor these freshwater ecosystems. Additionally, this ecological knowledge providesthe foundation for identifying population sites from which to collect N. bella for futurepopulation genetic studies.
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Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human–elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia
Human–wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability—three key drivers of human–elephant conflict—will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions “regional rivalry” SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions “sustainability” SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2042526
- PAR ID:
- 10510445
- Publisher / Repository:
- PNAS
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 121
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312569121
