Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) are bioindicators for the rapidly changing Antarctic environment, making understanding their population dynamics and behavior of high research priority. However, collecting detailed population data throughout the breeding season on many colonies is difficult due to Antarctica’s harsh conditions and remote location. The colonial breeding ecology of Adélie penguins has led to the evolution of a highly vocal species with individualized calls, making them well-suited for passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) with autonomous recording. PAM units can potentially provide an easily deployable and scalable way to collect fine-scale data on population estimates and breeding phenology. Here I present a framework for using acoustic indices to monitor phenology of dense penguin colonies even under high wind conditions. I evaluate the relationship between acoustic indices such as RMS amplitude and penguin colony size between distinct breeding stages (incubation, guard, crèche, and fledge) on Torgersen and Humble Islands in the West Antarctic Peninsula with an automated pipeline implemented in R. Using PAM to interpret penguin vocalizations for population size and breeding phenology estimates could lead to the development of a real-time remote monitoring system over a large spatial footprint, revealing Adélie penguin responses to climate change. 
                        more » 
                        « less   
                    
                            
                            Remote sensing of emperor penguin abundance and breeding success
                        
                    
    
            Abstract Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are under increasing environmental pressure. Monitoring colony size and population trends of this Antarctic seabird relies primarily on satellite imagery recorded near the end of the breeding season, when light conditions levels are sufficient to capture images, but colony occupancy is highly variable. To correct population estimates for this variability, we develop a phenological model that can predict the number of breeding pairs and fledging chicks, as well as key phenological events such as arrival, hatching and foraging times, from as few as six data points from a single season. The ability to extrapolate occupancy from sparse data makes the model particularly useful for monitoring remotely sensed animal colonies where ground-based population estimates are rare or unavailable. 
        more » 
        « less   
        
    
                            - Award ID(s):
- 2046437
- PAR ID:
- 10510467
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
- 
            
- 
            Abstract Autonomous recording units (ARUs) are recognized for their use in detecting vocalizing bird species to assess presence, occupancy, and density, but their potential to monitor reproductive status of individuals and reproductive rates is not well known. We investigated whether song rates derived from ARU data, when combined with the known date, can be used to predict the proportion of male songbirds in 3 breeding status classes (single, paired, and feeding young). We monitored breeding status with weekly field visits and collected daily ARU recordings at 46 olive‐sided flycatcher (Contopus cooperi) breeding territories in northwestern Canada in 2016–2017. We tested 4 variations of a hierarchical multinomial regression model that used time of day, day of year, and song rate derived from 2‐minute recordings to predict breeding status, and evaluated models using a novel, likelihood‐based approach. We found the top model correctly estimated 79% of the observed proportions of birds in each breeding status across the length of the breeding season. Although date was the primary predictor of breeding status, singing rate reduced some of the uncertainty and provided more accurate estimates for a given time. A major challenge to prediction accuracy and data interpretation was accounting for bird movement and the associated impact on detection, which we partly addressed by limiting our study to individuals who were detected on at least 30% of ARU sampling days. We demonstrate that ARUs can be used to assess breeding status in a cryptic, low‐density species at risk such as the olive‐sided flycatcher, suggesting this method could be applied to a wider range of species to better understand demographics and population dynamics, and inform management decisions, for bird species of concern.more » « less
- 
            Abstract Sex‐related differences in vital rates that drive population change reflect the basic life history of a species. However, for visually monomorphic bird species, determining the effect of sex on demographics can be a challenge. In this study, we investigated the effect of sex on apparent survival, recruitment, and breeding propensity in the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae), a monochromatic, slightly size dimorphic species with known age, known sex, and known breeding history data collected during 1996–2019 (n = 2127 birds) from three breeding colonies on Ross Island, Antarctica. Using a multistate capture–mark–recapture maximum‐likelihood model, we estimated apparent survival (), recapture (resighting) probability (), and the probability of transitioning among breeding states and moving between colonies (; colony‐specific non‐juvenile pre‐breeders, breeders, and non‐breeders). Survival rate varied by breeding status and colony, but not sex, and pre‐breeders had higher survival rates than breeders and non‐breeders. Females had a higher probability of recruiting into the breeding population each year and may enter the breeding pool at younger ages. In contrast, both sexes had the same probability of breeding from year to year once they had recruited. Although we detected no direct sex effects on survival, the variation in recruitment probability and age‐at‐first reproduction, along with lower survival rates of breeders compared to pre‐breeders, likely leads to shorter lifespans for females. This is supported by our findings of a male‐biased mean adult sex ratio (ASR) of 1.4 males for every female ( proportion of males = 0.57, SD = 0.07) across all colonies and years in this metapopulation. Our study illustrates how important it can be to disentangle sex‐related variation in population vital rates, particularly for species with complex life histories and demographic dynamics.more » « less
- 
            Abstract The use of quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to monitor pathogens is common; however, quantitative frameworks that consider the observation process, dynamics in pathogen presence, and pathogen load are lacking. This can be problematic in the early stages of disease progression, where low level detections may be treated as ‘inconclusive’ and excluded from analyses. Alternatively, a framework that accounts for imperfect detection would provide more robust inferences. To better estimate pathogen dynamics, we developed a hierarchical multi-scale dynamic occupancy hurdle model (MS-DOHM). The model used data gathered during sampling forPseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), the causative agent of white-nose syndrome, a fungal disease that has cause severe declines in several species of hibernating bats in North America. The model allowed us to estimate initial occupancy, colonization, persistence and prevalence ofPdat bat hibernacula. Additionally, utilizing the relationship between cycle threshold and pathogen load, we estimated pathogen detectability and modeled expected colony and bat pathogen loads. To assess the ability of MS-DOHM to estimate pathogen dynamics, we compared MS-DOHM’s results to those of a dynamic occupancy model and naïve detection/non-detection. MS-DOHM’s estimates of site-level pathogen presence were up to 11.9% higher than estimates from the dynamic occupancy model and 35.7% higher than naïve occupancy. Including prevalence and load in our modeling framework resulted in estimates of pathogen arrival that were two to three years earlier compared to the dynamic occupancy and naïve detection/non-detection, respectively. Compared to naïve values, MS-DOHM predicted greater pathogen loads on colonies; however, we found no difference between model estimates and naïve values of prevalence. While the model predicted no declines in site-level prevalence, there were instances where pathogen load decreased in colonies that had beenPdpositive for longer periods of time. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for pathogen load and prevalence at multiple scales changes our understanding ofPddynamics, potentially allowing earlier conservation intervention. Additionally, we found that accounting for pathogen load and prevalence within hibernacula and among individuals resulted in a better fitting model with greater predictive ability.more » « less
- 
            Abstract Effects of global climate change on population persistence are often mediated by life‐history traits of individuals, especially the timing of somatic growth, reproductive development, and reproduction itself. These traits can vary among age groups and between the sexes, a result of differential life‐history tactics and levels of lifetime reproductive investment. Unfortunately, the trait data necessary for revealing sex‐specific breeding behaviors and use of breeding cues over reasonably large geographic areas remain sparse for most taxa. In this study, we assembled and analyzed a new reproductive trait base for the North American deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) from digitized natural history specimens and field censuses. We used the data to reconstruct sex‐specific breeding phenologies and their drivers within and among North American ecoregions. Male and female phenologies varied across the geographic range of this species, with discordance in timing and intensity being highest in regions of lower seasonality (and longer breeding seasons). Reliance on environmental variables as breeding cues also appeared to vary in a sex‐specific manner, being most similar for photoperiod and least similar for temperature (positive male response and negative female response); in addition, model validation indicated that phenological models generalized better for males than for females. Finally, our individual‐level trait data also show that male reproductive investment (quantified as relative testis size) varies across the vastly different abiotic and social (i.e., female breeding) contexts studied here. By harmonizing across a broad set of digital data resources, we demonstrate the potential to uncover drivers of phenological variation within species and inform global change predictions at multiple scales of biological organization.more » « less
 An official website of the United States government
An official website of the United States government 
				
			 
					 
					
