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Title: Exploring techniques to improve machine learning’s identification of at-risk students in physics classes

Machine learning models were constructed to predict student performance in an introductory mechanics class at a large land-grant university in the United States using data from 2061 students. Students were classified as either being at risk of failing the course (earning a D or F) or not at risk (earning an A, B, or C). The models focused on variables available in the first few weeks of the class which could potentially allow for early interventions to help at-risk students. Multiple types of variables were used in the model: in-class variables (average homework and clicker quiz scores), institutional variables [college grade point average (GPA)], and noncognitive variables (self-efficacy). The substantial imbalance between the pass and fail rates of the course, with only about 10% of students failing, required modification to the machine learning algorithms. Decision threshold tuning and upsampling were successful in improving performance for at-risk students. Logistic regression combined with a decision threshold tuned to maximize balanced accuracy yielded the strongest classifier, with a DF accuracy of 83% and an ABC accuracy of 81%. Measures of variable importance involving changes in balanced accuracy identified homework grades, clicker grades, college GPA, and the fraction of college classes successfully completed as the most important variables in predicting success in introductory physics. Noncognitive variables added little predictive power to the models. Classification models with performance near the best-performing models using the full set of variables could be constructed with very few variables (homework average, clicker scores, and college GPA) using straightforward to implement algorithms, suggesting the application of these technologies may be fairly easy to include in many physics classes.

Published by the American Physical Society2024 
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Award ID(s):
1833694 1834575 1834601 1834569
PAR ID:
10511060
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Publisher / Repository:
American Physical Society
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Physical Review Physics Education Research
Volume:
20
Issue:
1
ISSN:
2469-9896
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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Retrieved from https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10511060. <em>Physical Review Physics Education Research</em> 20.1 Web. doi:10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.20.010149. </div> <div class="modal-footer"> <button class="btn btn-sm btn-default" data-dismiss="modal" aria-hidden="true">Close</button> </div> </div> </div> </div></li> <li class="links-format"><a href="#cite-apa" data-toggle="modal">APA</a> <div id="cite-apa" class="modal" tabindex="-1" role="dialog" aria-labelledby="cite-apa_label" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-hidden="true">×</button> <strong id="cite-apa_label">Cite: APA Format</strong> </div> <div class="modal-body">Pace, John, Hansen, John, & Stewart, John. <em>Exploring techniques to improve machine learning’s identification of at-risk students in physics classes</em>. <em>Physical Review Physics Education Research</em>, <em>20</em> (1). Retrieved from https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10511060. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.20.010149">https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.20.010149</a> </div> <div class="modal-footer"> <button class="btn btn-sm btn-default" data-dismiss="modal" aria-hidden="true">Close</button> </div> </div> </div> </div></li> <li class="links-format"><a href="#cite-chi" data-toggle="modal">Chicago</a> <div id="cite-chi" class="modal" tabindex="-1" role="dialog" aria-labelledby="cite-chi_label" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-hidden="true">×</button> <strong id="cite-chi_label">Cite: Chicago Format</strong> </div> <div class="modal-body">Pace, John, Hansen, John, and Stewart, John. "Exploring techniques to improve machine learning’s identification of at-risk students in physics classes". <em>Physical Review Physics Education Research</em> 20 (1). Country unknown/Code not available: American Physical Society. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.20.010149">https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.20.010149.</a> <a href="https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10511060">https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10511060</a>. </div> <div class="modal-footer"> <button class="btn btn-sm btn-default" data-dismiss="modal" aria-hidden="true">Close</button> </div> </div> </div> </div></li> <li class="links-format"><a href="#cite-bib" data-toggle="modal">BibTeX</a> <div id="cite-bib" class="modal" tabindex="-1" role="dialog" aria-labelledby="cite-bib_label" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="modal-dialog"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-hidden="true">×</button> <strong id="cite-bib_label">Cite: BibTeX Format</strong> </div> <div class="modal-body"> @article{osti_10511060,<br/> place = {Country unknown/Code not available}, title = {Exploring techniques to improve machine learning’s identification of at-risk students in physics classes}, url = {https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10511060}, DOI = {10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.20.010149}, abstractNote = {Machine learning models were constructed to predict student performance in an introductory mechanics class at a large land-grant university in the United States using data from 2061 students. Students were classified as either being at risk of failing the course (earning a D or F) or not at risk (earning an A, B, or C). The models focused on variables available in the first few weeks of the class which could potentially allow for early interventions to help at-risk students. Multiple types of variables were used in the model: in-class variables (average homework and clicker quiz scores), institutional variables [college grade point average (GPA)], and noncognitive variables (self-efficacy). The substantial imbalance between the pass and fail rates of the course, with only about 10% of students failing, required modification to the machine learning algorithms. Decision threshold tuning and upsampling were successful in improving performance for at-risk students. Logistic regression combined with a decision threshold tuned to maximize balanced accuracy yielded the strongest classifier, with a DF accuracy of 83% and an ABC accuracy of 81%. Measures of variable importance involving changes in balanced accuracy identified homework grades, clicker grades, college GPA, and the fraction of college classes successfully completed as the most important variables in predicting success in introductory physics. Noncognitive variables added little predictive power to the models. Classification models with performance near the best-performing models using the full set of variables could be constructed with very few variables (homework average, clicker scores, and college GPA) using straightforward to implement algorithms, suggesting the application of these technologies may be fairly easy to include in many physics classes. Published by the American Physical Society2024}, journal = {Physical Review Physics Education Research}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, publisher = {American Physical Society}, author = {Pace, John and Hansen, John and Stewart, John}, }</div> <div class="modal-footer"> <button class="btn btn-sm btn-default" data-dismiss="modal" aria-hidden="true">Close</button> </div> </div> </div> </div></li> <li class="divider"></li> </ul> <ul class="nav nav-list" style="font-size: 14px; font-family: Arial Regular;"> <li class="nav-header header-format">Export Metadata</li> <li class="links-format"><a href="https://par.nsf.gov/endnote?osti_id=10511060">EndNote</a></li> <li class="links-format"><a href="https://par.nsf.gov/export/format:excel/osti-id:10511060">Excel</a></li> <li class="links-format"><a href="https://par.nsf.gov/export/format:csv/osti-id:10511060">CSV</a></li> <li class="links-format"><a href="https://par.nsf.gov/export/format:xml/osti-id:10511060">XML</a></li> <li class="divider"></li> </ul> <ul class="nav nav-list" style="font-size: 14px; 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