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1. Constraining long‐term model predictions for woody growth using tropical tree rings

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17075  

   Xu, Xiangtao; van_der_Sleen, Peter; Groenendijk, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Medvigy, David; Moorcroft, Paul; Petticord, Daniel; Ma, Yixin; Zuidema, Pieter_A (December 2023, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract The strength and persistence of the tropical carbon sink hinges on the long‐term responses of woody growth to climatic variations and increasing CO₂. However, the sensitivity of tropical woody growth to these environmental changes is poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in growth predictions. Here, we used tree ring records from a Southeast Asian tropical forest to constrain ED2.2‐hydro, a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit vegetation demography. Specifically, we assessed individual‐level woody growth responses to historical climate variability and increases in atmospheric CO₂(C_a). When forced with historical C_a, ED2.2‐hydro reproduced the magnitude of increases in intercellular CO₂concentration (a major determinant of photosynthesis) estimated from tree ring carbon isotope records. In contrast, simulated growth trends were considerably larger than those obtained from tree rings, suggesting that woody biomass production efficiency (WBPE = woody biomass production:gross primary productivity) was overestimated by the model. The estimated WBPE decline under increasing C_abased on model‐data discrepancy was comparable to or stronger than (depending on tree species and size) the observed WBPE changes from a multi‐year mature‐forest CO₂fertilization experiment. In addition, we found that ED2.2‐hydro generally overestimated climatic sensitivity of woody growth, especially for late‐successional plant functional types. The model‐data discrepancy in growth sensitivity to climate was likely caused by underestimating WBPE in hot and dry years due to commonly used model assumptions on carbon use efficiency and allocation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to constrain model predictions of individual tree‐level growth sensitivity to C_aand climate against tropical tree‐ring data. Our results suggest that improving model processes related to WBPE is crucial to obtain better predictions of tropical forest responses to droughts and increasing C_a. More accurate parameterization of WBPE will likely reduce the stimulation of woody growth by C_arise predicted by biosphere models. 

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2. Increased photosynthesis during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43430-9  

   Miller, David L.; Wolf, Sebastian; Fisher, Joshua B.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Xiao, Jingfeng; Keenan, Trevor F. (November 2023, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Drought is often thought to reduce ecosystem photosynthesis. However, theory suggests there is potential for increased photosynthesis during meteorological drought, especially in energy-limited ecosystems. Here, we examine the response of photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) to meteorological drought across the water-energy limitation spectrum. We find a consistent increase in eddy covariance GPP during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems (83% of the energy-limited sites). Half of spring GPP sensitivity to precipitation was predicted solely from the wetness index (R² = 0.47,p < 0.001), with weaker relationships in summer and fall. Our results suggest GPP increases during spring drought for 55% of vegetated Northern Hemisphere lands ( >30° N). We then compare these results to terrestrial biosphere model outputs and remote sensing products. In contrast to trends detected in eddy covariance data, model mean GPP always declined under spring precipitation deficits after controlling for air temperature and light availability. While remote sensing products captured the observed negative spring GPP sensitivity in energy-limited ecosystems, terrestrial biosphere models proved insufficiently sensitive to spring precipitation deficits. 

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3. Mapping the global distribution of C4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45606-3  

   Luo, Xiangzhong; Zhou, Haoran; Satriawan, Tin W.; Tian, Jiaqi; Zhao, Ruiying; Keenan, Trevor F.; Griffith, Daniel M.; Sitch, Stephen; Smith, Nicholas G.; Still, Christopher J. (February 2024, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Plants with the C₄photosynthesis pathway typically respond to climate change differently from more common C₃-type plants, due to their distinct anatomical and biochemical characteristics. These different responses are expected to drive changes in global C₄and C₃vegetation distributions. However, current C₄vegetation distribution models may not predict this response as they do not capture multiple interacting factors and often lack observational constraints. Here, we used global observations of plant photosynthetic pathways, satellite remote sensing, and photosynthetic optimality theory to produce an observation-constrained global map of C₄vegetation. We find that global C₄vegetation coverage decreased from 17.7% to 17.1% of the land surface during 2001 to 2019. This was the net result of a reduction in C₄natural grass cover due to elevated CO₂favoring C₃-type photosynthesis, and an increase in C₄crop cover, mainly from corn (maize) expansion. Using an emergent constraint approach, we estimated that C₄vegetation contributed 19.5% of global photosynthetic carbon assimilation, a value within the range of previous estimates (18–23%) but higher than the ensemble mean of dynamic global vegetation models (14 ± 13%; mean ± one standard deviation). Our study sheds insight on the critical and underappreciated role of C₄plants in the contemporary global carbon cycle. 

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4. Recent global decline of CO ₂ fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis

   https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb7772  

   Wang, Songhan; Zhang, Yongguang; Ju, Weimin; Chen, Jing M.; Ciais, Philippe; Cescatti, Alessandro; Sardans, Jordi; Janssens, Ivan A.; Wu, Mousong; Berry, Joseph A.; et al (December 2020, Science)

   The enhanced vegetation productivity driven by increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) [i.e., the CO₂fertilization effect (CFE)] sustains an important negative feedback on climate warming, but the temporal dynamics of CFE remain unclear. Using multiple long-term satellite- and ground-based datasets, we showed that global CFE has declined across most terrestrial regions of the globe from 1982 to 2015, correlating well with changing nutrient concentrations and availability of soil water. Current carbon cycle models also demonstrate a declining CFE trend, albeit one substantially weaker than that from the global observations. This declining trend in the forcing of terrestrial carbon sinks by increasing amounts of atmospheric CO₂implies a weakening negative feedback on the climatic system and increased societal dependence on future strategies to mitigate climate warming. 

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5. Resolving the Carbon‐Climate Feedback Potential of Wetland CO ₂ and CH ₄ Fluxes in Alaska

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007524  

   Ma, Shuang; Bloom, A. Anthony; Watts, Jennifer D.; Quetin, Gregory R.; Donatella, Zona; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Norton, Alexander J.; Yin, Yi; Levine, Paul A.; Braghiere, Renato K.; et al (September 2023, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

   Abstract Boreal‐Arctic regions are key stores of organic carbon (C) and play a major role in the greenhouse gas balance of high‐latitude ecosystems. The carbon‐climate (C‐climate) feedback potential of northern high‐latitude ecosystems remains poorly understood due to uncertainty in temperature and precipitation controls on carbon dioxide (CO₂) uptake and the decomposition of soil C into CO₂and methane (CH₄) fluxes. While CH₄fluxes account for a smaller component of the C balance, the climatic impact of CH₄outweighs CO₂(28–34 times larger global warming potential on a 100‐year scale), highlighting the need to jointly resolve the climatic sensitivities of both CO₂and CH₄. Here, we jointly constrain a terrestrial biosphere model with in situ CO₂and CH₄flux observations at seven eddy covariance sites using a data‐model integration approach to resolve the integrated environmental controls on land‐atmosphere CO₂and CH₄exchanges in Alaska. Based on the combined CO₂and CH₄flux responses to climate variables, we find that 1970‐present climate trends will induce positive C‐climate feedback at all tundra sites, and negative C‐climate feedback at the boreal and shrub fen sites. The positive C‐climate feedback at the tundra sites is predominantly driven by increased CH₄emissions while the negative C‐climate feedback at the boreal site is predominantly driven by increased CO₂uptake (80% from decreased heterotrophic respiration, and 20% from increased photosynthesis). Our study demonstrates the need for joint observational constraints on CO₂and CH₄biogeochemical processes—and their associated climatic sensitivities—for resolving the sign and magnitude of high‐latitude ecosystem C‐climate feedback in the coming decades. 

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