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1. How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5d  

   Overland, J. E. (March 2021, Environmental research letters)

   null (Ed.)

   Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain. 

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2. Physical Links from Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Barents–Kara Sea Ice Variability from Synoptic to Seasonal Timescales in the Cold Season

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0155.1  

   Yu Feng Siew, Peter; Wu, Yutian; Ting, Mingfang; Zheng, Cheng; Clancy, Robin; Kurtz, Nathan T.; Seager, Richard (November 2023, Journal of Climate)

   Abstract Previous findings show that large-scale atmospheric circulation plays an important role in driving Arctic sea ice variability from synoptic to seasonal time scales. While some circulation patterns responsible for Barents–Kara sea ice changes have been identified in previous works, the most important patterns and the role of their persistence remain unclear. Our study uses self-organizing maps to identify nine high-latitude circulation patterns responsible for day-to-day Barents–Kara sea ice changes. Circulation patterns with a high pressure center over the Urals (Scandinavia) and a low pressure center over Iceland (Greenland) are found to be the most important for Barents–Kara sea ice loss. Their opposite-phase counterparts are found to be the most important for sea ice growth. The persistence of these circulation patterns helps explain sea ice variability from synoptic to seasonal time scales. We further use sea ice models forced by observed atmospheric fields (including the surface circulation and temperature) to reproduce observed sea ice variability and diagnose the role of atmosphere-driven thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Results show that thermodynamic and dynamic processes similarly contribute to Barents–Kara sea ice concentration changes on synoptic time scales via circulation. On seasonal time scales, thermodynamic processes seem to play a stronger role than dynamic processes. Overall, our study highlights the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation, its persistence, and varying physical processes in shaping sea ice variability across multiple time scales, which has implications for seasonal sea ice prediction. Significance StatementUnderstanding what processes lead to Arctic sea ice changes is important due to their significant impacts on the ecosystem, weather, and shipping, and hence our society. A well-known process that causes sea ice changes is atmospheric circulation variability. We further pin down what circulation patterns and underlying mechanisms matter. We identify multiple circulation patterns responsible for sea ice loss and growth to different extents. We find that the circulation can cause sea ice loss by mechanically pushing sea ice northward and bringing warm and moist air to melt sea ice. The two processes are similarly important. Our study advances understanding of the Arctic sea ice variability with important implications for Arctic sea ice prediction. 

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3. Arctic sea ice growth in response to synoptic- and large-scale atmospheric forcing from CMIP5 models

   Cai, L. (July 2020, Journal of climate)

   null (Ed.)

   We explore the response of wintertime Arctic sea ice growth to strong cyclones and to large-scale circulation patterns on the daily scale using Earth system model output in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A combined metrics ranking method selects three CMIP5 models that are successful in reproducing the wintertime Arctic dipole (AD) pattern. A cyclone identification method is applied to select strong cyclones in two subregions in the North Atlantic to examine their different impacts on sea ice growth. The total change of sea ice growth rate (SGR) is split into those respectively driven by the dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric forcing. Three models reproduce the downward longwave radiation anomalies that generally match thermodynamic SGR anomalies in response to both strong cyclones and large-scale circulation patterns. For large-scale circulation patterns, the negative AD outweighs the positive Arctic Oscillation in thermodynamically inhibiting SGR in both impact area and magnitude. Despite the disagreement on the spatial distribution, the three CMIP5 models agree on the weaker response of dynamic SGR than thermodynamic SGR. As the Arctic warms, the thinner sea ice results in more ice production and smaller spatial heterogeneity of thickness, dampening the SGR response to the dynamic forcing. The higher temperature increases the specific heat of sea ice, thus dampening the SGR response to the thermodynamic forcing. In this way, the atmospheric forcing is projected to contribute less to change daily SGR in the future climate. 

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4. The Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Subsequent Surface Impacts as Consequences to Arctic Sea Ice Loss

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0128.1  

   Liang, Yu-Chiao; Kwon, Young-Oh; Frankignoul, Claude; Gastineau, Guillaume; Smith, Karen L; Polvani, Lorenzo M; Sun, Lantao; Peings, Yannick; Deser, Clara; Zhang, Ruonan; et al (January 2024, Journal of Climate)

   Abstract This study investigates the stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss and subsequent near-surface impacts by analyzing 200-member coupled experiments using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) with preindustrial, present-day, and future sea ice conditions specified following the protocol of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The stratospheric polar vortex weakens significantly in response to the prescribed sea ice loss, with a larger response to greater ice loss (i.e., future minus preindustrial) than to smaller ice loss (i.e., future minus present-day). Following the weakening of the stratospheric circulation in early boreal winter, the coupled stratosphere–troposphere response to ice loss strengthens in late winter and early spring, projecting onto a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the lower troposphere. To investigate whether the stratospheric response to sea ice loss and subsequent surface impacts depend on the background oceanic state, ensemble members are initialized by a combination of varying phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV). Different AMV and IPV states combined, indeed, can modulate the stratosphere–troposphere responses to sea ice loss, particularly in the North Atlantic sector. Similar experiments with another climate model show that, although strong sea ice forcing also leads to tighter stratosphere–troposphere coupling than weak sea ice forcing, the timing of the response differs from that in WACCM6. Our findings suggest that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the stratospheric circulation and subsequent tropospheric variability on seasonal time scales, but modulation by the background oceanic state and model dependence need to be taken into account. Significance StatementThis study uses new-generation climate models to better understand the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on the surface climate in the midlatitudes, including North America, Europe, and Siberia. We focus on the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, which involves the weakening of stratospheric winds and its downward coupling into the troposphere. Our results show that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the surface climate in the midlatitudes via the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, and highlight the modulations from background mean oceanic states as well as model dependence. 

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5. Northern Hemisphere Winter Air Temperature Patterns and Their Associated Atmospheric and Ocean Conditions

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0533.1  

   Deng, Jiechun; Dai, Aiguo; Chyi, Dorina (July 2020, Journal of Climate)

   Abstract The Northern Hemisphere (NH) has experienced winter Arctic warming and continental cooling in recent decades, but the dominant patterns in winter surface air temperature (SAT) are not well understood. Here, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis is performed to identify the leading patterns in winter daily SAT fields from 1979 to 2018, and their associated atmospheric and ocean conditions are also examined. Three distinct winter SAT patterns with two phases of nearly opposite signs and a time scale of 7–12 days are found: one pattern exhibits concurrent SAT anomalies of the same sign over North America (NA) and northern Eurasia, while the other two patterns show SAT anomalies of opposite signs between, respectively, NA and the Bering Sea, and the Kara Sea and East Asia (EA). Winter SAT variations may arise from changes in the SOM frequencies. Specifically, the observed increasing trends of winter cold extremes over NA, central Eurasia, and EA during 1998–2013 can be understood as a result of the increasing occurrences of some specific SAT patterns. These SOMs are closely related to poleward advection of midlatitude warm air and equatorward movements of polar cold airmass. These meridional displacements of cold and warm airmasses cause concurrent anomalies over different regions not only in SAT but also in water vapor and surface downward longwave radiation. Anomalous sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, midlatitude North Pacific, and North Atlantic and anomalous Arctic sea ice concentrations also concur to support and maintain the anomalous atmospheric circulation that causes the SAT anomalies. 

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