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Debates over racial voting, and over policies to combat vote dilution, turn on the extent to which groups’ voting preferences differ and vary across geography. We present the first study of racial voting patterns in every congressional district (CD) in the United States. Using large-sample surveys combined with aggregate demographic and election data, we find that national-level differences across racial groups explain 60% of the variation in district-level voting patterns, whereas geography explains 30%. Black voters consistently choose Democratic candidates across districts, whereas Hispanic and white voters’ preferences vary considerably across geography. Districts with the highest racial polarization are concentrated in the parts of the South and Midwest. Importantly, multiracial coalitions have become the norm: in most CDs, the winning majority requires support from non-white voters. In arriving at these conclusions, we make methodological innovations that improve the precision and accuracy when modeling sparse survey data.
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Classification of Hispanic Voters in Hispanic Groups Using Name and Zip Code Data in Palm Beach, Florida
When it comes to registering to vote, Hispanic voters can only register as “Hispanic” in the “Race/ Ethnicity” category, causing difficulties when analyzing voting trends amongst the Hispanic community. Upon the recent idea that not all Hispanic Groups vote the same, the goal is to create a model that can possibly identify a voter’s Hispanic Group with the information provided on the public Florida voter file. This is accomplished using name and zip code data for all voters in Palm Beach, Florida. This paper will explore the model implemented, its findings and limitations. Palm Beach, Florida, is met with low confidence in classification, leaving the final sample of highly confident active Hispanic voters with 15% of its original sample. Further analysis on other counties will be needed to gauge how impactful this limitation might be on the rest of the state.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2050754
- PAR ID:
- 10520062
- Publisher / Repository:
- ERAU
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal
- Volume:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 0000-0000
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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