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Abstract Flowering phenology can vary considerably even at fine spatial scales, potentially leading to temporal reproductive isolation among habitat patches. Climate change could alter flowering synchrony, and hence temporal isolation, if plants in different microhabitats vary in their phenological response to climate change. Despite the importance of temporal isolation in determining patterns of gene flow, and hence population genetic structure and local adaptation, little is known about how changes in climate affect temporal isolation within populations.Here, we use flowering phenology and floral abundance data of 50 subalpine plant species over 44 years to test whether temporal isolation between habitat patches is affected by spring temperature. For each species and year, we analysed temporal separation in peak flowering and flowering overlap between habitat patches separated by 5–950 m.Across our study species, warmer springs were associated with more temporal differentiation in flowering peaks among habitat patches, and less flowering overlap, increasing potential for temporal isolation within populations.Synthesis. By reducing opportunities for mating among plants in nearby habitat patches, our results suggest that warmer springs may reduce opportunities for gene flow within populations, and, consequently, the capacity of plant populations to adapt to environmental changes.
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A life‐history spectrum of population responses to simultaneous change in climate and land use
Abstract Climate and land use change are two of the primary threats to global biodiversity; however, each species within a community may respond differently to these facets of global change. Although it is typically assumed that species use the habitat that is advantageous for survival and reproduction, anthropogenic changes to the environment can create ecological traps, making it critical to assess both habitat selection (e.g. where species congregate on the landscape) and the influence of selected habitats on the demographic processes that govern population dynamics.We used a long‐term (1958–2011), large‐scale, multi‐species dataset for waterfowl that spans the United States and Canada to estimate species‐specific responses to climate and land use variables in a landscape that has undergone significant environmental change across space and time. We first estimated the effects of change in climate and land use variables on habitat selection and population dynamics for nine species. We then hypothesized that species‐specific responses to environmental change would scale with life‐history traits, specifically: longevity, nesting phenology and female breeding site fidelity.We observed species‐level heterogeneity in the demographic and habitat selection responses to climate and land use change, which would complicate community‐level habitat management. Our work highlights the importance of multi‐species monitoring and community‐level analysis, even among closely related species.We detected several relationships between life‐history traits, particularly nesting phenology, and species' responses to environmental change. One species, the early‐nesting northern pintail (Anas acuta), was consistently at the extreme end of responses to land use and climate predictors and has been a species of conservation concern since their population began to decline in the 1980s. They, and the blue‐winged teal, also demonstrated a positive habitat selection response to the proportion of cropland on the landscape that simultaneously reduced abundance the following year, indicative of susceptibility to ecological traps.By distilling the diversity of species' responses to environmental change within a community, our methodological approach and findings will help improve predictions of community responses to global change and can inform multi‐species management and conservation plans in dynamic landscapes that are based on simple tenets of life‐history theory.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2209765
- PAR ID:
- 10520332
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Animal Ecology
- Volume:
- 92
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0021-8790
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1267 to 1284
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Summary Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate‐sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges.Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel ‘phenology‐informed’ SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology‐informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting.When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology‐informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes.Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait‐based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.more » « less
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Abstract Despite a global footprint of shifts in flowering phenology in response to climate change, the reproductive consequences of these shifts are poorly understood. Furthermore, it is unknown whether altered flowering times affect plant population viability.We examine whether climate change‐induced earlier flowering has consequences for population persistence by incorporating reproductive losses from frost damage (a risk of early flowering) into population models of a subalpine sunflower (Helianthella quinquenervis). Using long‐term demographic data for three populations that span the species’ elevation range (8–15 years, depending on the population), we first examine how snowmelt date affects plant vital rates. To verify vital rate responses to snowmelt date experimentally, we manipulate snowmelt date with a snow removal experiment at one population. Finally, we construct stochastic population projection models and Life Table Response Experiments for each population.We find that populations decline (λs < 1) as snowmelt dates become earlier. Frost damage to flower buds, a consequence of climate change‐induced earlier flowering, does not contribute strongly to population declines. Instead, we find evidence that negative effects on survival, likely due to increased drought risk during longer growing seasons, drive projected population declines under earlier snowmelt dates.Synthesis.Shifts in flowering phenology are a conspicuous and important aspect of biological responses to climate change, but here we show that the phenology of reproductive events can be unreliable measures of threats to population persistence, even when earlier flowering is associated with substantial reproductive losses. Evidence for shifts in reproductive phenology, along with scarcer evidence that these shifts actually influence reproductive success, are valuable but can paint an incomplete and even misleading picture of plant population responses to climate change.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13919
