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Strictly proper scoring rules (SPSR) are incentive compatible for eliciting information about random variables from strategic agents when the principal can reward agents after the realization of the random variables. They also quantify the quality of elicited information, with more accurate predictions receiving higher scores in expectation. In this paper, we extend such scoring rules to settings where a principal elicits private probabilistic beliefs but only has access to agents’ reports. We name our solution Surrogate Scoring Rules (SSR). SSR is built on a bias correction step and an error rate estimation procedure for a reference answer defined using agents’ reports. We show that, with a little information about the prior distribution of the random variables, SSR in a multi-task setting recover SPSR in expectation, as if having access to the ground truth. Therefore, a salient feature of SSR is that they quantify the quality of information despite the lack of ground truth, just as SPSR do for the setting with ground truth. As a by-product, SSR induce dominant uniform strategy truthfulness in reporting. Our method is verified both theoretically and empirically using data collected from real human forecasters.
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Gács-Körner Common Information Variational Autoencoder
We propose a notion of common information that allows one to quantify and separate the information that is shared between two random variables from the information that is unique to each. Our notion of common information is defined by an optimization problem over a family of functions and recovers the Gács-Körner common information as a special case. Importantly, our notion can be approximated empirically using samples from the underlying data distribution. We then provide a method to partition and quantify the common and unique information using a simple modification of a traditional variational auto-encoder. Empirically, we demonstrate that our formulation allows us to learn semantically meaningful common and unique factors of variation even on high-dimensional data such as images and videos. Moreover, on datasets where ground-truth latent factors are known, we show that we can accurately quantify the common information between the random variables.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1943467
- PAR ID:
- 10520602
- Publisher / Repository:
- NeurIPS
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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