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Title: Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice
The science associated with assessing natural hazard phenomena and the risks they pose contains many layers of complex and interacting elements, resulting in diverse sources of uncertainty. This creates a challenge for effective communication, which must consider how people perceive that uncertainty. Thus, we conducted twenty-five mental model interviews in Aotearoa New Zealand with participants ranging from scientists to policy writers and emergency managers, and through to the public. The interviews included three phases: an initial elicitation of free thoughts about uncertainty, a mental model mapping activity, and a semi-structured interview protocol to ex- plore further questions about scientific processes and their personal philosophy of science. Quali- tative analysis led to the construction of key themes, including: (a) understanding that, in addi- tion to data sources, the ‘actors’ involved can also be sources of uncertainty; (b) acknowledging that factors such as governance and funding decisions partly determine uncertainty; (c) the influ- ence of assumptions about expected human behaviours contributing to “known unknowns'; and (d) the difficulty of defining what uncertainty actually is. Participants additionally highlighted the positive role of uncertainty for promoting debate and as a catalyst for further inquiry. They also demonstrated a level of comfort with uncertainty and advocated for ‘sitting with uncertain- ty’ for transparent reporting in advice. Additional influences included: an individual's under- standing of societal factors; the role of emotions; using outcomes as a scaffold for interpretation; and the complex and noisy communications landscape. Each of these require further investiga- tion to enhance the communication of scientific uncertainty.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2103713
PAR ID:
10521739
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Elsevier
Date Published:
Journal Name:
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Volume:
96
Issue:
C
ISSN:
2212-4209
Page Range / eLocation ID:
103948
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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