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Abstract Estimates of coseismic vertical displacements from past and potential future subduction zone earthquakes provide critical constraints on regional seismic and tsunami hazard. Many studies use elastic homogeneous half‐space models to calculate vertical displacements from a specified earthquake slip distribution, neglecting complexities of 3D structure in subduction zone settings. Here, we use 3D ground motion simulations of potential Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes to investigate the impact of realistic 3D Earth structure on estimated vertical displacements. We show that offshore uplift increases when including 3D structure due to high fault slip in low‐rigidity accretionary wedge sediments and coastal subsidence decreases due to higher rigidity material at depth. These larger offshore uplifts cause increased tsunami maximum wave heights, and coastal subsidence at paleoseismic sites decreases on average by ∼17 cm, or ∼60%, which can have important implications for the amplitude and extent of slip in earthquake scenarios developed based on paleoseismic data constraints. 

Abstract Sandy beaches act as buffers against various coastal hazards but are vulnerable to episodic (seasonal) and chronic (interannual) erosion. Understanding the variation of shoreline position, a key metric in coastal morphology, over a spectrum of time scales is therefore crucial in assessing hazard vulnerability. Long-standing research has investigated the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific Basin, in seasonal shoreline variability. Yet, ENSO’s chronic influence—and that of another Pacific climate mode, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)—on shoreline anomalies remains poorly understood. Here, we examine the variability of sandy beaches in the US Pacific Northwest, a ∼750 km long coastal region on the US West Coast. We leverage 40 years (1984–2024) of shoreline data from publicly available Earth-observing (Landsat) satellite imagery at a high spatial resolution (>10,000 shore-normal transects at 50-m alongshore spacing) and employ Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a methodology for inferring causality in dynamical systems. We discover that strong El Niño years are signified by erosion (75.1% of transects), and strong La Niña years exhibit accretional behavior (73.4% of transects). Furthermore, we establish, for the first time, that both ENSO and PDO exert a statistically significant control on interannual shoreline variability, particularly on the alongshore component (in 95 and 100% of littoral cells, respectively), with water level fluctuations playing a critical role. This effort advances our understanding of the seasonal-to-interannual interactions between Pacific Basin climate variability and the PNW’s coastal morphodynamics, with implications for sediment management and coastal adaptation. 

Abstract Strike‐slip faults act as landscape change agents, offsetting rivers, driving river capture, and generating hillslope responses. In this study, inspired by the hyperarid Atacama Fault System in Chile, we use numerical models to investigate how landscapes that experience oscillatory dry and humid periods respond to strike‐slip faulting at variable slip rates. Our results show that riverbed aggradation from hillslope sediment flux during dry periods delays stream capture, increases deflection angles of fault‐crossing channels, and produces highly perturbed longitudinal river profiles. In some cases, these phenomena, as well as the thickness of aggraded sediment, are slip‐rate dependent. Lags in capture timing and/or fully missed captures that occur in landscapes with climatic oscillation have a profound impact on the long‐term evolution of strike‐slip landscapes. Our work also highlights the importance of hillslope contributions to landscape modification in arid and semi‐arid settings with ephemeral rivers. 

Abstract We use an idealized numerical model to investigate the dynamics and fate of a small river discharging into the surf zone. Our study reveals that the plume reaches a steady state, at which point the combined advective and diffusive freshwater fluxes from the surf zone to the inner shelf balance the river discharge. At a steady state, the surf zone is well mixed vertically due to wave-enhanced vertical turbulent diffusion and has a strong cross-shore salinity gradient. The horizontal gradient drives a cross-shore buoyancy-driven circulation, directed offshore at the surface and onshore near the bottom, which opposes the wave-driven circulation. Using a scaling analysis based on momentum and freshwater budgets, we determine that the steady-state alongshore plume extent (L_p) and the fraction of river water trapped in the surf zone depend on the ratio of the near-field plume length to the surf-zone width (L_nf/L_sz) across a wide range of discharge and wave conditions and a limited set of tidal conditions. This scaling also allows us to predict the residence time and freshwater fraction (or dilution ratio) in the steady-state plume within the surf zone, which ranges from approximately 0.1 to 10 days and from 0.1 to 0.3, respectively. Our findings establish the basic dynamics and scales of an idealized plume in the surf zone, as well as estimates of residence times and dilution rates that may provide guidance to coastal managers. Significance StatementSmall rivers and estuaries often carry pollutants, sediments, and larvae into the coastal ocean, where wave action in the surf zone can trap them near the shore. This process can play an important role in the flux of material into and out of the nearshore ecosystem and presents a potential risk to swimmers when materials are harmful. The present study uses a numerical model to investigate the fate of freshwater discharged from small rivers into the surf zone and the processes through which trapped riverine freshwater escapes from the surf zone. These results establish a basis for predicting the fate of river-borne materials from coastal rivers and understanding the exchange between the surf zone and the inner shelf. Additionally, this work provides a theoretical framework for predicting the residence time and concentration of river-borne material trapped in the surf zone. 

Abstract Great subduction earthquakes (M_w ≥ 8.0) can generate devastating tsunamis by rapidly displacing the seafloor and overlying water column. These potentially tsunamigenic seafloor offsets result from coseismic fault slip and deformation beneath or within the accretionary wedge. The mechanics of these shallow rupture phenomena and their dependence on subduction zone properties remain unresolved, partly due to the sparsity of offshore observations of shallow megathrust earthquake deformation. Here, we analyze how offshore structure influences shallow rupture mechanics and slip partitioning using 3D dynamic earthquake simulations of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) megathrust with and without variably dipping seaward‐ or landward‐vergent splay faults in the wedge that sole into the megathrust. Resulting tradeoffs between splay and megathrust slip reveal structural controls on rupture partitioning, with greater splay slip leading to less shallow megathrust slip updip. Gently dipping and seaward‐vergent splays host more slip than those with steeper, landward‐vergent splays. To isolate the underlying mechanisms, we compare models with Andersonian and plunging principal stresses. Results suggest distinct static and dynamic processes control the dip‐ and vergence‐dependence of splay rupture: static (mis)alignment relative to far‐field tectonic loading favors slip on more optimally oriented, shallowly dipping splay faults. In contrast, dynamic stress interactions of an updip‐propagating megathrust rupture front with the free surface and potential branch faults favor forward branching onto seaward‐vergent splays and inhibit backward branching onto landward‐vergent splays. Resulting seafloor displacements suggest splay fault structure may influence coseismic tsunami source processes, highlighting the importance of dynamically viable rupture scenarios in subduction hazard assessments. 

Abstract Models of near‐field tsunamis and an extreme hurricane provide further evidence for a great precolonial earthquake along the Puerto Rico Trench. The models are benchmarked to brain‐coral boulders and cobbles on Anegada, 125 km south of the trench. The models are screened by their success in flooding the mapped sites of these erratics, which were emplaced some six centuries ago. Among 25 tsunami scenarios, 19 have megathrust sources and the rest posit normal faulting on the outer rise. The modeled storm, the most extreme of 15 hurricanes of category 5, produces tsunami‐like bores from surf beat. In the tsunami scenarios, simulated flow depth is 1 m or more at all the clast sites, and 2 m or more at nearly all, given either a megathrust rupture 255 km long with 7.5 m of dip slip and M8.45, or an outer‐rise rupture 130 km long with 11.4 m of dip slip and M8.17. By contrast, many coral clasts lie beyond the reach of simulated flooding from the extreme hurricane. The tsunami screening may underestimate earthquake size by neglecting trees and shrubs that likely impeded both the simulated flows and the observed clasts; and it may overestimate earthquake size by leaving coastal sand barriers intact. The screening results broadly agree with those from previously published tsunami simulations. In either successful scenario, the average recurrence interval spans thousands of years, and flooding on the nearest Caribbean shores begins within a half‐hour. 

Abstract During a storm, as the beach profile is impacted by increased wave forcing and rapidly changing water levels, sand berms may help mitigate erosion of the backshore. However, the mechanics of berm morphodynamics have not been fully described. In this study, 26 trials were conducted in a large wave flume to explore the response of a near‐prototype berm to scaled storm conditions. Sensors were used to quantify hydrodynamics, sheet flow dynamics, and berm evolution. Results indicate that berm overtopping and offshore sediment transport were key processes causing berm erosion. During the morphological evolution of the beach profile, two sand bars were formed offshore that attenuated subsequent wave energy. The landward extent of that energy was confined to the seaward foreshore, inhibiting inundation of the backshore. Net offshore‐directed transport was dominant when infragravity motions increased in the swash zone. Conversely, the influence of incident‐band motions on sediment transport was relatively greater in the inner‐surf zone. Near‐bed flow velocities and sheet flow layer thicknesses were larger in the swash zone than in the inner‐surf zone. This paper also provides a valuable analysis between morphology‐estimated total sediment transport rates and rates derived from in situ measurements. Sheet flow dynamics dominated foreshore cross‐shore sediment processes, constituting the largest portion of the total sediment transport load throughout the berm erosion. 

ABSTRACT Earthquake-induced landslides can record information about the seismic shaking that generated them. In this study, we present new mapping, Light Detection and Ranging-derived roughness dating, and analysis of over 1000 deep-seated landslides from the Puget Lowlands of Washington, U.S.A., to probe the landscape for past Seattle fault earthquake information. With this new landslide inventory, we observe spatial and temporal evidence of landsliding related to the last major earthquake on the Seattle fault ∼1100 yr before present. We find spatial clusters of landslides that correlate with ground motions from recent 3D kinematic models of Seattle fault earthquakes. We also find temporal patterns in the landslide inventory that suggest earthquake-driven increases in landsliding. We compare the spatial and temporal landslide data with scenario-based ground motion models and find stronger evidence of the last major Seattle fault earthquake from this combined analysis than from spatial or temporal patterns alone. We also compare the landslide inventory with ground motions from different Seattle fault earthquake scenarios to determine the ground motion distributions that are most consistent with the landslide record. We find that earthquake scenarios that best match the clustering of ∼1100-year-old landslides produce the strongest shaking within a band that stretches from west to east across central Seattle as well as along the bluffs bordering the broader Puget Sound. Finally, we identify other landslide clusters (at 4.6–4.2 ka, 4.0–3.8 ka, 2.8–2.6 ka, and 2.2–2.0 ka) in the inventory which let us infer potential ground motions that may correspond to older Seattle fault earthquakes. Our method, which combines hindcasting of the surface response to the last major Seattle fault earthquake, using a roughness-aged landslide inventory with forecasts of modeled ground shaking from 3D seismic scenarios, showcases a powerful new approach to gleaning paleoseismic information from landscapes. 

Abstract Research conducted in the context of a disaster or public health emergency is essential to improve knowledge about its short- and long-term health consequences, as well as the implementation and effectiveness of response and recovery strategies. Integrated approaches to conducting Disaster Research Response (DR2) can answer scientific questions, while also providing attendant value for operational response and recovery. Here, we propose a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) template to guide the collaborative development and implementation of DR2 among academic public health and public health agencies, informed by previous literature, semi-structured interviews with disaster researchers from academic public health across the United States, and discussion groups with public health practitioners. The proposed CONOPS outlines actionable strategies to address DR2 issues before, during, and after disasters for public health scholars and practitioners who seek to operationalize or enhance their DR2 programs. Additional financial and human resources will be necessary to promote widespread implementation of collaborative DR2 programs. 

Abstract Coastal morphological changes can be assessed using shoreline position observations from space. However, satellite-derived waterline (SDW) and shoreline (SDS; SDW corrected for hydrodynamic contributions and outliers) detection methods are subject to several sources of uncertainty and inaccuracy. We extracted high-spatiotemporal-resolution (~50 m-monthly) time series of mean high water shoreline position along the Columbia River Littoral Cell (CRLC), located on the US Pacific Northwest coast, from Landsat missions (1984–2021). We examined the accuracy of the SDS time series along the mesotidal, mildly sloping, high-energy wave climate and dissipative beaches of the CRLC by validating them against 20 years of quarterlyin situbeach elevation profiles. We found that the accuracy of the SDS time series heavily depends on the capability to identify and remove outliers and correct the biases stemming from tides and wave runup. However, we show that only correcting the SDW data for outliers is sufficient to accurately measure shoreline change trends along the CRLC. Ultimately, the SDS change trends show strong agreement within situdata, facilitating the spatiotemporal analysis of coastal change and highlighting an overall accretion signal along the CRLC during the past four decades.