Abstract On 3 February 2022, at 18:13 UTC, SpaceX launched and a short time later deployed 49 Starlink satellites at an orbit altitude between 210 and 320 km. The satellites were meant to be further raised to 550 km. However, the deployment took place during the main phase of a moderate geomagnetic storm, and another moderate storm occurred on the next day. The resulting increase in atmospheric drag led to 38 out of the 49 satellites reentering the atmosphere in the following days. In this work, we use both observations and simulations to perform a detailed investigation of the thermospheric conditions during this storm. Observations at higher altitudes, by Swarm‐A (∼438 km, 09/21 Local Time [LT]) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow‐On (∼505 km, 06/18 LT) missions show that during the main phase of the storms the neutral mass density increased by 110% and 120%, respectively. The storm‐time enhancement extended to middle and low latitudes and was stronger in the northern hemisphere. To further investigate the thermospheric variations, we used six empirical and first‐principle numerical models. We found the models captured the upper and lower thermosphere changes, however, their simulated density enhancements differ by up to 70%. Further, the models showed that at the low orbital altitudes of the Starlink satellites (i.e., 200–300 km) the global averaged storm‐time density enhancement reached up to ∼35%–60%. Although such storm effects are far from the largest, they seem to be responsible for the reentry of the 38 satellites.
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The Loss of Starlink Satellites in February 2022: How Moderate Geomagnetic Storms Can Adversely Affect Assets in Low‐Earth Orbit
Abstract On 3 February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites, 38 of which unexpectedly de‐orbited. Although this event was attributed to space weather, definitive causality remained elusive because space weather conditions were not extreme. In this study, we identify solar sources of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections that were responsible for the geomagnetic storms around the time of launch of the Starlink satellites and for the first time, investigate their impact on Earth's magnetosphere using magnetohydrodynamic modeling. The model results demonstrate that the satellites were launched into an already disturbed space environment that persisted over several days. However, on performing comparative satellite orbital decay analyses, we find that space weather alone was not responsible but conspired together with a low‐altitude insertion and low satellite mass‐to‐area ratio to precipitate this unusual loss. Our work bridges space weather causality across the Sun–Earth system—with relevance for space‐based human technologies.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1854790
- PAR ID:
- 10523466
- Publisher / Repository:
- Space Weather
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather
- Volume:
- 22
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1542-7390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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