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1. Decomposing uncertainty for large language models through input clarification ensembling

   Hou, Bairu; Liu, Yujian; Qian, Kaizhi; Andreas, Jacob; Chang, Shiyu; Zhang, Yang (January 2024, ICML)

   Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a model into data (aleatoric) uncertainty, resulting from the inherent complexity or ambiguity of the data, and model (epistemic) uncertainty, resulting from the lack of knowledge in the model. Performing uncertainty decomposition for large language models (LLMs) is an important step toward improving the reliability, trustworthiness, and interpretability of LLMs, but this research task is very challenging and remains unresolved. The existing canonical method, Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), cannot be applied to LLMs, because BNN requires training and ensembling multiple variants of models, which is infeasible or prohibitively expensive for LLMs. In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty decomposition framework for LLMs, called input clarifications ensemble, which bypasses the need to train new models. Rather than ensembling models with different parameters, our approach generates a set of clarifications for the input, feeds them into the fixed LLMs, and ensembles the corresponding predictions. We show that our framework shares a symmetric decomposition structure with BNN. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the proposed framework provides accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification on various tasks. Code will be made publicly available at https://github.com/UCSB-NLP-Chang/llm_uncertainty . 

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2. Estimating Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty with a Single Model

   Chan, Matthew A; Molina, Maria J; Metzler, Christopher A (December 2024, Advances in neural information processing systems)

   Estimating and disentangling epistemic uncertainty, uncertainty that is reducible with more training data, and aleatoric uncertainty, uncertainty that is inherent to the task at hand, is critically important when applying machine learning to highstakes applications such as medical imaging and weather forecasting. Conditional diffusion models’ breakthrough ability to accurately and efficiently sample from the posterior distribution of a dataset now makes uncertainty estimation conceptually straightforward: One need only train and sample from a large ensemble of diffusion models. Unfortunately, training such an ensemble becomes computationally intractable as the complexity of the model architecture grows. In this work we introduce a new approach to ensembling, hyper-diffusion models (HyperDM), which allows one to accurately estimate both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty with a single model. Unlike existing single-model uncertainty methods like Monte-Carlo dropout and Bayesian neural networks, HyperDM offers prediction accuracy on par with, and in some cases superior to, multi-model ensembles. Furthermore, our proposed approach scales to modern network architectures such as Attention U-Net and yields more accurate uncertainty estimates compared to existing methods. We validate our method on two distinct real-world tasks: x-ray computed tomography reconstruction and weather temperature forecasting. Source code is publicly available at https://github.com/matthewachan/hyperdm. 

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3. FUSE: Quantifying uncertainty in vision-language models by Bayesian fusing epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty

   Zhang, Harry; Carlone, Luca (July 2026, Intl. Conf. on Machine Learning (ICML))

   Vision-language models (VLMs) are playing an increasingly important role across multiple domains. In many applications, such as robotics, it is crucial to quantify the uncertainty in the output of these models. } We develop FUSE, a probabilistic framework for capturing two complementary sources of uncertainty in vision-language modeling: (i) aleatoric embedding-level uncertainty derived from input data vision-language ambiguity, and (ii) epistemic model-level uncertainty estimated from the semantic response diversity of VLMs. Our approach formulates a Bayesian fusion mechanism that analytically combines these uncertainty sources to produce a scalar measure of uncertainty. This measure can be used to reliably predict the model's output correctness for downstream applications. We demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines and achieves SOTA uncertainty calibration. 

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4. Fairness through Aleatoric Uncertainty

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3583780.3614875  

   Tahir, Anique; Cheng, Lu; Liu, Huan (October 2023, ACM)

   We propose a simple yet effective solution to tackle the often-competing goals of fairness and utility in classification tasks. While fairness ensures that the model's predictions are unbiased and do not discriminate against any particular group or individual, utility focuses on maximizing the model's predictive performance. This work introduces the idea of leveraging aleatoric uncertainty (e.g., data ambiguity) to improve the fairness-utility trade-off. Our central hypothesis is that aleatoric uncertainty is a key factor for algorithmic fairness and samples with low aleatoric uncertainty are modeled more accurately and fairly than those with high aleatoric uncertainty. We then propose a principled model to improve fairness when aleatoric uncertainty is high and improve utility elsewhere. Our approach first intervenes in the data distribution to better decouple aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. It then introduces a fairness-utility bi-objective loss defined based on the estimated aleatoric uncertainty. Our approach is theoretically guaranteed to improve the fairness-utility trade-off. Experimental results on both tabular and image datasets show that the proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods w.r.t. the fairness-utility trade-off and w.r.t. both group and individual fairness metrics. This work presents a fresh perspective on the trade-off between utility and algorithmic fairness and opens a key avenue for the potential of using prediction uncertainty in fair machine learning. 

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5. Quantifying Uncertainty in Discrete-Continuous and Skewed Data with Bayesian Deep Learning

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3219819.3219996  

   Vandal, Thomas; Kodra, Evan; Dy, Jennifer; Ganguly, Sangram; Nemani, Ramakrishna; Ganguly, Auroop R. (August 2018, KDD 2018)

   Deep Learning (DL) methods have been transforming computer vision with innovative adaptations to other domains including climate change. For DL to pervade Science and Engineering (S&EE) applications where risk management is a core component, well-characterized uncertainty estimates must accompany predictions. However, S&E observations and model-simulations often follow heavily skewed distributions and are not well modeled with DL approaches, since they usually optimize a Gaussian, or Euclidean, likelihood loss. Recent developments in Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL), which attempts to capture uncertainties from noisy observations, aleatoric, and from unknown model parameters, epistemic, provide us a foundation. Here we present a discrete-continuous BDL model with Gaussian and lognormal likelihoods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate the approach by developing UQ estimates on “DeepSD’‘, a super-resolution based DL model for Statistical Downscaling (SD) in climate applied to precipitation, which follows an extremely skewed distribution. We find that the discrete-continuous models outperform a basic Gaussian distribution in terms of predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration. Furthermore, we find that the lognormal distribution, which can handle skewed distributions, produces quality uncertainty estimates at the extremes. Such results may be important across S&E, as well as other domains such as finance and economics, where extremes are often of significant interest. Furthermore, to our knowledge, this is the first UQ model in SD where both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are characterized. 

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