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Abstract Active traces of the southern Fairweather fault were revealed by light detection and ranging (lidar) and show evidence for transpressional deformation between North America and the Yakutat block in southeast Alaska. We map the Holocene geomorphic expression of tectonic deformation along the southern 30 km of the Fairweather fault, which ruptured in the 1958 moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake. Digital maps of surficial geology, geomorphology, and active faults illustrate both strike-slip and dip-slip deformation styles within a 10°–30° double restraining bend where the southern Fairweather fault steps offshore to the Queen Charlotte fault. We measure offset landforms along the fault and calibrate legacy 14C data to reassess the rate of Holocene strike-slip motion (≥49 mm/yr), which corroborates published estimates that place most of the plate boundary motion on the Fairweather fault. Our slip-rate estimates allow a component of oblique-reverse motion to be accommodated by contractional structures west of the Fairweather fault consistent with geodetic block models. Stratigraphic and structural relations in hand-dug excavations across two active fault strands provide an incomplete paleoseismic record including evidence for up to six surface ruptures in the past 5600 years, and at least two to four events in the past 810 years. The incomplete record suggests an earthquake recurrence interval of ≥270 years—much longer than intervals <100 years implied by published slip rates and expected earthquake displacements. Our paleoseismic observations and map of active traces of the southern Fairweather fault illustrate the complexity of transpressional deformation and seismic potential along one of Earth's fastest strike-slip plate boundaries.
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Islands of chaos in a sea of periodic earthquakes
Long paleoseismic records on mature faults suggest potentially chaotic recurrence patterns with cycles of strain accumulation and release that challenge simple slip-or time-predictable recurrence models. In apparent contradiction, the relatively small variability of earthquake recurrence times on these faults is often characterized as quasi-periodic, implying much regularity in the underlying mechanics. To reconcile these observations, we simulate one of the longest paleoearthquake records – the 24-event record from the Hokuri Creek site on the Alpine fault in New Zealand – using a physical model of rate-and state-dependent friction. In a parameter space formed by three non-dimensional parameters, a sea of parameters produces periodic earthquake recurrence behavior. Only a few models are characterized by fundamentally aperiodic recurrence patterns, in parametric islands of chaos. Complex models that produce partial and full ruptures of the Alpine fault can explain the earthquake recurrence behavior of the Alpine fault, reproducing up to 11 consecutive events of the Hokuri Creek paleoseismic record within uncertainties. The breakdown of the slip-and time-predictable recurrence patterns occurs for faults that are much longer than the characteristic nucleation size. The quasi-periodicity of seismic cycles is compatible with the nonlinear and potentially chaotic underlying mechanical system, posing an inherent challenge to long-term earthquake prediction.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1848192
- PAR ID:
- 10525032
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth and Planetary Science Letters
- Volume:
- 618
- Issue:
- C
- ISSN:
- 0012-821X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 118274
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118274
