As the international community continues to fall short on reducing emissions to avoid disastrous impacts of climate change, some scientists have called for more research into solar geoengineering (SGE) as a potential temporary fix. Others, however, have adamantly rejected the notion of considering SGE in climate policy discussions. One prominent concern with considering SGE technologies to help manage climate change is the so-called “free driver” conjecture. The prediction is that among countries with different preferences for the level of SGE, the country that prefers the most will deploy levels higher than the global optimum. This paper tests the free-driver hypothesis experimentally under different conditions and institutions. We find that aggregate deployment of SGE is inefficiently high in all settings, but slightly less so when players are heterogeneous in endowments or when aggregate deployment is determined by a best-shot technology. Despite persistent inefficiencies in SGE deployment, free-driver behavior, on average, is less extreme than the theoretical predictions.
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International Climate Agreements under the Threat of Solar Geoengineering
The possibility of overshooting global emissions targets has triggered a de-bate about the role of solar geoengineering (SGE)—using technologies to reflect solar radiation away from Earth—in managing climate change. One major concern is thatSGE technologies are relatively cheap and could potentially be deployed by a single country (the “free driver”). We develop a model to analyze how opportunities to de-ploy SGE impact global abatement and the effectiveness of international environ-mental agreements (IEAs). We show that noncooperative abatement may increase or decrease under the threat of SGE, depending on how damaging the free driver’s level of deployment is to others. When free-driver externalities are significant, other countries have additional incentives to abate—called anti-driver incentives—to reduce the free driver’s deployment. We also show that compared to a world withoutSGE opportunities, stable IEAs can be large (small) if anti-driver incentives are relatively strong (weak).
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- Award ID(s):
- 2033855
- PAR ID:
- 10527223
- Publisher / Repository:
- The University of Chicago Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2333-5955
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 853 to 886
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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