skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: How well do global ocean biogeochemistry models simulate dissolved iron distributions?
Abstract Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are relied upon to make projections about the impact of climate change on marine resources and test hypotheses regarding the drivers of past changes in climate and ecosystems. In large areas of the ocean, iron availability regulates the functioning of marine ecosystems and hence the ocean carbon cycle. Accordingly, our ability to quantify the drivers and impacts of fluctuations in ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling in space and time relies on first achieving an appropriate representation of the modern marine iron cycle in models. When the iron distributions from 13 global ocean biogeochemistry models are compared against the latest oceanic sections from the GEOTRACES program, we find that all models struggle to reproduce many aspects of the observed spatial patterns. Models that reflect the emerging evidence for multiple iron sources or subtleties of its internal cycling perform much better in capturing observed features than their simpler contemporaries, particularly in the ocean interior. We show that the substantial uncertainty in the input fluxes of iron results in a very wide range of residence times across models, which has implications for the response of ecosystems and global carbon cycling to perturbations. Given this large uncertainty, iron fertilization experiments based on any single current generation model should be interpreted with caution. Improvements to how such models represent iron scavenging and also biological cycling are needed to raise confidence in their projections of global biogeochemical change in the ocean.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2140395
PAR ID:
10534298
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
The Oceanography Society
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Volume:
30
Issue:
2
ISSN:
0886-6236
Page Range / eLocation ID:
149 to 174
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; ; (, Biogeosciences)
    Abstract. As a net source of nutrients fuelling global primary production, changes in Southern Ocean productivity are expected to influence biological carbon storage across the global ocean. Following a high-emission, low-mitigation pathway (SSP5-8.5), we show that primary productivity in the Antarctic zone of the Southern Ocean is predicted to increase by up to 30 % over the 21st century. The ecophysiological response of marine phytoplankton experiencing climate change will be a key determinant in understanding the impact of Southern Ocean productivity shifts on the carbon cycle. Yet, phytoplankton ecophysiology is poorly represented in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models, leading to substantial uncertainty in the representation of its role in carbon sequestration. Here we synthesise the existing spatial and temporal projections of Southern Ocean productivity from CMIP6 models, separated by phytoplankton functional type, and identify key processes where greater observational data coverage can help to improve future model performance. We find substantial variability between models in projections of light concentration (>15 000 (µE m−2 s−1)2) across much of the iron- and light-limited Antarctic zone. Projections of iron and light limitation of phytoplankton vary by up to 10 % across latitudinal zones, while the greatest increases in productivity occurs close to the coast. Temperature, pH and nutrients are less spatially variable – projections for 2090–2100 under SSP5-8.5 show zonally averaged changes of +1.6 °C and −0.45 pH units and Si* ([Si(OH)4]–[NO3-]) decreases by 8.5 µmol L−1. Diatoms and picophytoplankton and/or miscellaneous phytoplankton are equally responsible for driving productivity increases across the subantarctic and transitional zones, but picophytoplankton and miscellaneous phytoplankton increase at a greater rate than diatoms in the Antarctic zone. Despite the variability in productivity with different phytoplankton types, we show that the most complex models disagree on the ecological mechanisms behind these productivity changes. We propose that a sampling approach targeting the regions with the greatest rates of climate-driven change in ocean biogeochemistry and community assemblages would help to resolve the empirical principles underlying the phytoplankton community structure in the Southern Ocean. 
    more » « less
  2. ; (, Nature Geoscience)
    Climate warming increasingly drives changes in large-scale ocean physics and biogeochemistry, and affects the kinetics of biological reactions. Together these factors govern phytoplankton productivity, thereby shaping the responses of ocean carbon and nutrient cycles to global change. Here we bring together results from experimental, observational and modelling studies to highlight how interactive feedbacks between warming and nutrient limitation can affect the responses of biogeochemically critical marine primary producers. The availability of many bioactive elements in seawater will be altered markedly in the future, thereby shifting resource deficiencies. These modifications to nutrient limitation when compounded by concurrent warming can change phytoplankton optimum growth temperatures and elemental use efficiencies in group-specific and nutrient-specific ways. The biogeochemical impacts of these nutrient and warming interactions reflect a distinction between the thermal reactivity of major cellular structural elements like nitrogen (N) and catalytic micronutrients like iron (Fe). Integrating the mechanistic feedbacks between warming, nutrient availability and primary productivity into Earth system models is necessary to improve confidence in projections of ocean biogeochemical cycle transformations in a changing climate. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences)
    The oceans contain large reservoirs of inorganic and organic carbon and play a critical role in both global carbon cycling and climate. Most of the biogeochemical transformations in the oceans are driven by marine microbes. Thus, molecular processes occurring at the scale of single cells govern global geochemical dynamics, posing a challenge of scales. Understanding the processes controlling ocean carbon cycling from the cellular to the global scale requires the integration of multiple disciplines including microbiology, ecology, biogeochemistry, and computational fields such as numerical models and bioinformatics. A shared language and foundational knowledge will facilitate these interactions. This review provides the state of knowledge on the role marine microbes play in large-scale ocean carbon cycling through the lens of observational oceanography and biogeochemical models. We conclude by outlining ways in which the field can bridge the gap between -omics datasets and ocean models to understand ocean carbon cycling across scales. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ; (, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)
    Abstract Dissolved iron (dFe) plays an important role in regulating marine productivity. In high nutrient, low chlorophyll regions (>33% of the global ocean), iron is the primary growth limiting nutrient, and elsewhere iron can regulate nitrogen fixation by diazotrophs. The link between iron availability and carbon export is strongly dependent on the phytoplankton iron quotas or cellular Fe:C ratios. This ratio varies by more than an order of magnitude in the open ocean and is positively correlated with ambient dFe concentrations in field observations. Representing Fe:C ratios within models is necessary to investigate how ocean carbon cycling will interact with perturbations to iron cycling in a changing climate. The Community Earth System Model ocean component was modified to simulate dynamic, group‐specific, phytoplankton Fe:C that varies as a function of ambient iron concentration. The simulated Fe:C ratios improve the representation of the spatial trends in the observed Fe:C ratios. The acclimation of phytoplankton Fe:C ratios dampens the biogeochemical response to varying atmospheric deposition of soluble iron, compared to a fixed Fe:C ratio. However, varying atmospheric soluble iron supply has first order impacts on global carbon and nitrogen fluxes and on nutrient limitation spatial patterns. Our results suggest that pyrogenic Fe is a significant dFe source that rivals mineral dust inputs in some regions. Changes in dust flux and iron combustion sources (anthropogenic and wildfires) will modify atmospheric Fe inputs in the future. Accounting for dynamic phytoplankton iron quotas is critical for understanding ocean biogeochemistry and projecting its response to variations in atmospheric deposition. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al (, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)
    Abstract Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper‐ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email