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Abstract The ocean has absorbed about 25% of the carbon emitted by humans to date. To better predict how much climate will change, it is critical to understand how this ocean carbon sink will respond to future emissions. Here, we examine the ocean carbon sink response to low emission (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6), intermediate emission (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-3.4-OS), and high emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios in CMIP6 Earth System Models and in MAGICC7, a reduced-complexity climate carbon system model. From 2020–2100, the trajectory of the global-mean sink approximately parallels the trajectory of anthropogenic emissions. With increasing cumulative emissions during this century (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5), the cumulative ocean carbon sink absorbs 20%–30% of cumulative emissions since 2015. In scenarios where emissions decline, the ocean absorbs an increasingly large proportion of emissions (up to 120% of cumulative emissions since 2015). Despite similar responses in all models, there remains substantial quantitative spread in estimates of the cumulative sink through 2100 within each scenario, up to 50 PgC in CMIP6 and 120 PgC in the MAGICC7 ensemble. We demonstrate that for all but SSP1-2.6, approximately half of this future spread can be eliminated if model results are adjusted to agree with modern observation-based estimates. Considering the spatial distribution of air-sea CO2fluxes in CMIP6, we find significant zonal-mean divergence from the suite of newly-available observation-based constraints. We conclude that a significant portion of future ocean carbon sink uncertainty is attributable to modern-day errors in the mean state of air-sea CO2fluxes, which in turn are associated with model representations of ocean physics and biogeochemistry. Bringing models into agreement with modern observation-based estimates at regional to global scales can substantially reduce uncertainty in future role of the ocean in absorbing anthropogenic CO2from the atmosphere and mitigating climate change.
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This content will become publicly available on January 1, 2026
Climate-driven shifts in Southern Ocean primary producers and biogeochemistry in CMIP6 models
Abstract. As a net source of nutrients fuelling global primary production, changes in Southern Ocean productivity are expected to influence biological carbon storage across the global ocean. Following a high-emission, low-mitigation pathway (SSP5-8.5), we show that primary productivity in the Antarctic zone of the Southern Ocean is predicted to increase by up to 30 % over the 21st century. The ecophysiological response of marine phytoplankton experiencing climate change will be a key determinant in understanding the impact of Southern Ocean productivity shifts on the carbon cycle. Yet, phytoplankton ecophysiology is poorly represented in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models, leading to substantial uncertainty in the representation of its role in carbon sequestration. Here we synthesise the existing spatial and temporal projections of Southern Ocean productivity from CMIP6 models, separated by phytoplankton functional type, and identify key processes where greater observational data coverage can help to improve future model performance. We find substantial variability between models in projections of light concentration (>15 000 (µE m−2 s−1)2) across much of the iron- and light-limited Antarctic zone. Projections of iron and light limitation of phytoplankton vary by up to 10 % across latitudinal zones, while the greatest increases in productivity occurs close to the coast. Temperature, pH and nutrients are less spatially variable – projections for 2090–2100 under SSP5-8.5 show zonally averaged changes of +1.6 °C and −0.45 pH units and Si* ([Si(OH)4]–[NO3-]) decreases by 8.5 µmol L−1. Diatoms and picophytoplankton and/or miscellaneous phytoplankton are equally responsible for driving productivity increases across the subantarctic and transitional zones, but picophytoplankton and miscellaneous phytoplankton increase at a greater rate than diatoms in the Antarctic zone. Despite the variability in productivity with different phytoplankton types, we show that the most complex models disagree on the ecological mechanisms behind these productivity changes. We propose that a sampling approach targeting the regions with the greatest rates of climate-driven change in ocean biogeochemistry and community assemblages would help to resolve the empirical principles underlying the phytoplankton community structure in the Southern Ocean.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2224611
- PAR ID:
- 10611337
- Publisher / Repository:
- European Geoscience Union
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Biogeosciences
- Volume:
- 22
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1726-4189
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 975 to 994
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Global Climate Change
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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