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Abstract The nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) is believed to be dominated by GW emission from supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). Observations of several dual-active galactic nuclei (AGN) strongly suggest a link between AGN and SMBHBs, given that these dual-AGN systems will eventually form bound binary pairs. Here we develop an exploratory SMBHB population model based on empirically constrained quasar populations, allowing us to decompose the GWB amplitude into an underlying distribution of SMBH masses, SMBHB number density, and volume enclosing the GWB. Our approach also allows us to self-consistently predict the number of local SMBHB systems from the GWB amplitude. Interestingly, we find the local number density of SMBHBs implied by the common-process signal in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set to be roughly five times larger than previously predicted by other models. We also find that at most ∼25% of SMBHBs can be associated with quasars. Furthermore, our quasar-based approach predicts ≳95% of the GWB signal comes fromz≲ 2.5, and that SMBHBs contributing to the GWB have masses ≳108M⊙. We also explore how different empirical galaxy–black hole scaling relations affect the local number density of GW sources, and find that relations predicting more massive black holes decrease the local number density of SMBHBs. Overall, our results point to the important role that a measurement of the GWB will play in directly constraining the cosmic population of SMBHBs, as well as their connections to quasars and galaxy mergers.
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High-redshift Merger Model for Low-frequency Gravitational Wave Background
Abstract In 2023, the Pulsar Timing Array Collaborations announced the discovery of a gravitational wave background (GWB), predominantly attributed to supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) mergers. However, the detected GWB is several times stronger than the default value expected from galactic observations at low and moderate redshifts. Recent findings by the James Webb Space Telescope have unveiled a substantial number of massive, high-redshift galaxies, suggesting more massive SMBHB mergers at these early epochs. Motivated by these findings, we propose an “early merger” model that complements the standard merger statistics by incorporating these early, massive galaxies. We compare the early and standard “late merger” models, which assume peak merger rates in the local Universe, and match both merger models to the currently detected GWB. Our analysis shows that the early merger model has a significantly lower detection probability for single binaries and predicts a ∼30% likelihood that the first detectable single source will be highly redshifted and remarkably massive with rapid frequency evolution. In contrast, the late merger model predicts a nearly monochromatic first source at low redshift. The future confirmation of an enhanced population of massive high-redshift galaxies and the detection of fast-evolving binaries would strongly support the early merger model, offering significant insights into the evolution of galaxies and SMBHs.
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- PAR ID:
- 10535132
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.3847
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 972
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: Article No. 29
- Size(s):
- Article No. 29
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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