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Synopsis Intraspecific variation can be as great as variation across species, but the role of intraspecific variation in driving local and large-scale patterns is often overlooked, particularly in the field of thermal biology. In amphibians, which depend on environmental conditions and behavior to regulate body temperature, recognizing intraspecific thermal trait variation is essential to comprehensively understanding how global change impacts populations. Here, we examine the drivers of micro- and macrogeographical intraspecific thermal trait variation in amphibians. At the local scale, intraspecific variation can arise via changes in ontogeny, body size, and between the sexes, and developmental plasticity, acclimation, and maternal effects may modulate predictions of amphibian performance under future climate scenarios. At the macrogeographic scale, local adaptation in thermal traits may occur along latitudinal and elevational gradients, with seasonality and range-edge dynamics likely playing important roles in patterns that may impact future persistence. We also discuss the importance of considering disease as a factor affecting intraspecific variation in thermal traits and population resilience to climate change, given the impact of pathogens on thermal preferences and critical thermal limits of hosts. Finally, we make recommendations for future work in this area. Ultimately, our goal is to demonstrate why it is important for researchers to consider intraspecific variation to determine the resilience of amphibians to global change.
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Machine learning and phylogenetic models identify predictors of genetic variation in Neotropical amphibians
Abstract AimIntraspecific genetic variation is key for adaptation and survival in changing environments and is known to be influenced by many factors, including population size, dispersal and life‐history traits. We investigated genetic variation within Neotropical amphibian species to provide insights into how natural history traits, phylogenetic relatedness, climatic and geographic characteristics can explain intraspecific genetic diversity. LocationNeotropics. TaxonAmphibians. MethodsWe assembled data sets using open‐access databases for natural history traits, genetic sequences, phylogenetic trees, climatic and geographic data. For each species, we calculated overall nucleotide diversity (π) and tested for isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE). We then identified predictors ofπ, IBD and IBE using random forest (RF) regression or RF classification. We also fitted phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models (PGLMMs) to predictπ, IBD and IBE. ResultsWe compiled 4052 mitochondrial DNA sequences from 256 amphibian species (230 frogs and 26 salamanders), georeferencing 2477 sequences from 176 species that were not linked to occurrence data. RF regressions and PGLMMs were congruent in identifying range size and precipitation (σ) as the most important predictors ofπ, influencing it positively. RF classification and PGLMMs identified minimum elevation as an important predictor of IBD; most species without IBD tended to occur at higher elevations. Maximum latitude and precipitation (σ) were the best predictors of IBE, and most species without IBE occur at lower latitudes and in areas with more variable precipitation. Main ConclusionsThis study identified predictors of genetic variation in Neotropical amphibians using both machine learning and phylogenetic methods. This approach was valuable to determine which predictors were congruent between methods. We found that species with small ranges or living in zones with less variable precipitation tended to have low genetic diversity. We also showed that Western Mesoamerica, Andes and Atlantic Forest biogeographic units harbour high diversity across many species that should be prioritized for protection. These results could play a key role in the development of conservation strategies for Neotropical amphibians.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2112946
- PAR ID:
- 10536021
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Online Library
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Biogeography
- Volume:
- 51
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 0305-0270
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 909 to 923
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14795
