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Abstract We investigate the relative importance of injection and production on the spatial‐temporal distribution of induced seismicity at the Raft River geothermal field. We use time‐series of InSAR measurements to document surface deformation and calibrate a hydro‐mechanical model to estimate effective stress changes imparted by injection and production. Seismicity, located predominantly in the basement, is induced primarily by poroelastic stresses from cold water reinjection into a shallower reservoir. The poroelastic effect of production from a deeper reservoir is minimal and inconsistent with observed seismicity, as is pore‐pressure‐diffusion in the basement and along reactivated faults. We estimate an initial strength excess of ∼20 kPa in the basement and sedimentary cover, but the seismicity rate in the sedimentary cover is four times lower, reflecting lower density of seed‐points for earthquake nucleation. Our modeling workflow could be used to assess the impact of fluid extraction or injection on seismicity and help design or guide operations.
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Induced Seismicity Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification: Application to the Groningen Gas Field
Abstract Reservoir operations for gas extraction, fluid disposal, carbon dioxide storage, or geothermal energy production are capable of inducing seismicity. Modeling tools exist for seismicity forecasting using operational data, but the computational costs and uncertainty quantification (UQ) pose challenges. We address this issue in the context of seismicity induced by gas production from the Groningen gas field using an integrated modeling framework, which combines reservoir modeling, geomechanical modeling, and stress-based earthquake forecasting. The framework is computationally efficient thanks to a 2D finite-element reservoir model, which assumes vertical flow equilibrium, and the use of semianalytical solutions to calculate poroelastic stress changes and predict seismicity rate. The earthquake nucleation model is based on rate-and-state friction and allows for an initial strength excess so that the faults are not assumed initially critically stressed. We estimate uncertainties in the predicted number of earthquakes and magnitudes. To reduce the computational costs, we assume that the stress model is true, but our UQ algorithm is general enough that the uncertainties in reservoir and stress models could be incorporated. We explore how the selection of either a Poisson or a Gaussian likelihood influences the forecast. We also use a synthetic catalog to estimate the improved forecasting performance that would have resulted from a better seismicity detection threshold. Finally, we use tapered and nontapered Gutenberg–Richter distributions to evaluate the most probable maximum magnitude over time and account for uncertainties in its estimation. Although we did not formally account for uncertainties in the stress model, we tested several alternative stress models, and found negligible impact on the predicted temporal evolution of seismicity and forecast uncertainties. Our study shows that the proposed approach yields realistic estimates of the uncertainties of temporal seismicity and is applicable for operational forecasting or induced seismicity monitoring. It can also be used in probabilistic traffic light systems.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1822214
- PAR ID:
- 10536155
- Publisher / Repository:
- Seismological Society of America
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Seismological Research Letters
- ISSN:
- 0895-0695
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Deterministic earthquake prediction remains elusive, but time‐dependent probabilistic seismicity forecasting seems within reach thanks to the development of physics‐based models relating seismicity to stress changes. Difficulties include constraining the earthquake nucleation model and fault initial stress state. Here, we analyze induced earthquakes from the Groningen gas field, where production is strongly seasonal, and seismicity began 3 decades after production started. We use the seismicity response to stress variations to constrain the earthquake nucleation process and calibrate models for time‐dependent forecasting of induced earthquakes. Remarkable agreements of modeled and observed seismicity are obtained when we consider (a) the initial strength excess, (b) the finite duration of earthquake nucleation, and (c) the seasonal variations of gas production. We propose a novel metric to quantify the nucleation model's ability to capture the damped amplitude and the phase of the seismicity response to short‐timescale (seasonal) stress variations which allows further tightening the model's parameters.more » « less
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Abstract Induced seismicity and surface deformation are common observable manifestations of the geomechanical effect of reservoir operations whether related to geothermal energy production, gas extraction or the storage of carbon dioxide, gas, air or hydrogen. Modelling tools to quantitatively predict surface deformation and seismicity based on operation data could thus help manage such reservoirs. To that effect, we present an integrated and modular modelling framework which combines reservoir modelling, geomechanical modelling and earthquake forecasting. To allow effective computational cost, we assume vertical flow equilibrium, semi-analytical Green's functions to calculate surface deformation and poroelastic stresses and a simple earthquake nucleation model based on Coulomb stress changes. We use the test case of the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands to validate the modelling framework and assess its usefulness for reservoir management. For this application, given the relative simplicity of this sandstone reservoir, we assume homogeneous porosity and permeability and single-phase flow. The model fits the measured pressure well, yielding a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.95 MPa, and the seismicity observations as well. The pressure residuals show, however, a systematic increase with time that probably reflects groundwater ingression into the depleted reservoir. The interaction with groundwater could be accounted for by implementing a multiphase-flow vertical flow equilibrium (VFE) model. This is probably the major factor that limits the general applicability of the modelling framework. Nevertheless, he modelled subsidence and seismicity fit very well the historical observations in the case of the Groningen gas field.more » « less
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Induced seismicity in Oklahoma and South Kansas has been widely attributed to wastewater disposal into the deep Arbuckle formation. However, the relative contributions of pore-pressure diffusion and poroelastic stress changes to earthquake triggering remain debated. In this study, we apply the Coulomb threshold rate-and-state seismicity forecasting model of Heimisson et al. (2022) to induced seismicity in the region from 2000 to 2024. Our model is informed by poroelastic stress changes resulting from wastewater injection between 1995 and 2024 and is benchmarked against existing seismicity forecast models. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately reproduces the onset, peak, and decline of seismicity, demonstrating strong agreement with the observed earthquake activity in space and time. It provides robust constraints on permeability, yielding a range consistent with previously reported values. Based on the fit to the data, the model informed by poroelastic stress changes performs better. However, regardless of the assumed mechanism, both models yield similarly reliable seismicity forecasts, indicating that the choice of mechanism has a limited impact on forecasting performance. Finally, we estimate the probability of an >= 5 event occurring between 2021 and 2024 to range from 7% to 18% and conclude that seismic risk will remain elevated if wastewater injection volumes into the Arbuckle persist at similar levels in the coming years.more » « less
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SUMMARY A number of recent modelling studies of induced seismicity have used the 1994 rate-and-state friction model of Dieterich 1994 to account for the fact that earthquake nucleation is not instantaneous. Notably, the model assumes a population of seismic sources accelerating towards instability with a distribution of initial slip speeds such that they would produce earthquakes steadily in the absence of any perturbation to the system. This assumption may not be valid in typical intraplate settings where most examples of induced seismicity occur, since these regions have low stressing rates and initially low seismic activity. The goal of this paper is twofold. First, to derive a revised Coulomb rate-and-state model, which takes into account that seismic sources can be initially far from instability. Second, to apply and test this new model, called the Threshold rate-and-state model, on the induced seismicity of the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. Stress changes are calculated based on a model of reservoir compaction since the onset of gas production. We next compare the seismicity predicted by our threshold model and Dieterich’s model with the observations. The two models yields comparable spatial distributions of earthquakes in good agreement with the observations. We find however that the Threshold model provides a better fit to the observed time-varying seismicity rate than Dieterich’s model, and reproduces better the onset, peak and decline of the observed seismicity rate. We compute the maximum magnitude expected for each model given the Gutenberg–Richter distribution and compare to the observations. We find that the Threshold model both shows better agreement with the observed maximum magnitude and provides result consistent with lack of observed seismicity prior to 1993. We carry out analysis of the model fit using a Chi-squared reduced statistics and find that the model fit is dramatically improved by smoothing the seismicity rate. We interpret this finding as possibly suggesting an influence of source interactions, or clustering, on a long timescale of about 3–5 yr.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230179
