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Abstract BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is often asymptomatic and thus under-observed. Given the high risks of stroke and heart failure among patients with AF, early prediction and effective management are crucial. Importantly, obstructive sleep apnea is highly prevalent among AF patients (60–90%); therefore, electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis from polysomnography (PSG), a standard diagnostic tool for subjects with suspected sleep apnea, presents a unique opportunity for the early prediction of AF. Our goal is to identify individuals at a high risk of developing AF in the future from a single-lead ECG recorded during standard PSGs. MethodsWe analyzed 18,782 single-lead ECG recordings from 13,609 subjects at Massachusetts General Hospital, identifying AF presence using ICD-9/10 codes in medical records. Our dataset comprises 15,913 recordings without a medical record for AF and 2,056 recordings from patients who were first diagnosed with AF between 1 day to 15 years after the PSG recording. The PSG data were partitioned into training, validation, and test cohorts. In the first phase, a signal quality index (SQI) was calculated in 30-second windows and those with SQI<0.95 were removed. From each remaining window, 150 hand-crafted features were extracted from time, frequency, time-frequency domains, and phase-space reconstructions of the ECG. A compilation of 12 statistical features summarized these window-specific features per recording, resulting in 1,800 features. We then updated a pre-trained deep neural network and data from the PhysioNet Challenge 2021 using transfer-learning to discriminate between recordings with and without AF using the same Challenge data. The model was applied to the PSG ECGs in 16-second windows to generate the probability of AF for each window. From the resultant probability sequence, 13 statistical features were extracted. Subsequently, we trained a shallow neural network to predict future AF using the extracted ECG and probability features. ResultsOn the test set, our model demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.67, specificity of 0.81, and precision of 0.3 for predicting AF. Further, survival analysis for AF outcomes, using the log-rank test, revealed a hazard ratio of 8.36 (p-value of 1.93 × 10−52). ConclusionsOur proposed ECG analysis method, utilizing overnight PSG data, shows promise in AF prediction despite a modest precision indicating the presence of false positive cases. This approach could potentially enable low-cost screening and proactive treatment for high-risk patients. Ongoing refinement, such as integrating additional physiological parameters could significantly reduce false positives, enhancing its clinical utility and accuracy.
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Differentiating ischemic stroke patients from healthy subjects using a large-scale, retrospective EEG database and machine learning methods
Objectives: We set out to develop a machine learning model capable of distinguishing patients presenting with ischemic stroke from a healthy cohort of subjects. The model relies on a 3-min resting electroencephalogram (EEG) recording from which features can be computed. Materials and methods: Using a large-scale, retrospective database of EEG recordings and matching clinical reports, we were able to construct a dataset of 1385 healthy subjects and 374 stroke patients. With subjects often producing more than one recording per session, the final dataset consisted of 2401 EEG recordings (63% healthy, 37% stroke). Results: Using a rich set of features encompassing both the spectral and temporal domains, our model yielded an AUC of 0.95, with a sensitivity and specificity of 93% and 86%, respectively. Allowing for multiple recordings per subject in the training set boosted sensitivity by 7%, attributable to a more balanced dataset. Conclusions: Our work demonstrates strong potential for the use of EEG in conjunction with machine learning methods to distinguish stroke patients from healthy subjects. Our approach provides a solution that is not only timely (3-minutes recording time) but also highly precise and accurate (AUC: 0.95). Keywords: Electroencephalogram (EEG); Feature engineering; Ischemic stroke; Large vessel occlusion; Machine learning; Prehospital stroke scale.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2213156
- PAR ID:
- 10540688
- Publisher / Repository:
- J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases
- Volume:
- 33
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 1052-3057
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 107714
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2024.107714
