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1. Detecting OODs as datapoints with High Uncertainty

   Kaur, Ramneet; Jha, Susmit; Anirban, Roy; Sangdon, Park; Oleg, Sokolsky; Insup, Lee (July 2021, Uncertainty & Robustness in Deep Learning Workshop @ ICML, 2021)

   null (Ed.)

   Deep neural networks (DNNs) are known to produce incorrect predictions with very high confidence on out-of-distribution inputs (OODs). This limitation is one of the key challenges in the adoption of DNNs in high-assurance systems such as autonomous driving, air traffic management, and medical diagnosis. This challenge has received significant attention recently, and several techniques have been developed to detect inputs where the model’s prediction cannot be trusted. These techniques detect OODs as datapoints with either high epistemic uncertainty or high aleatoric uncertainty. We demonstrate the difference in the detection ability of these techniques and propose an ensemble approach for detection of OODs as datapoints with high uncertainty (epistemic or aleatoric). We perform experiments on vision datasets with multiple DNN architectures, achieving state-of-the-art results in most cases. 

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2. Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

   https://doi.org/10.1175/AIES-D-23-0093.1  

   Schreck, John S; Gagne, David John; Becker, Charlie; Chapman, William E; Elmore, Kim; Fan, Da; Gantos, Gabrielle; Kim, Eliot; Kimpara, Dhamma; Martin, Thomas; et al (October 2024, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems)

   Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) (https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance StatementThis study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking. 

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3. TrEP: Transformer-Based Evidential Prediction for Pedestrian Intention with Uncertainty

   https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v37i3.25463  

   Zhang, Zhengming; Tian, Renran; Ding, Zhengming (June 2023, Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   With rapid development in hardware (sensors and processors) and AI algorithms, automated driving techniques have entered the public’s daily life and achieved great success in supporting human driving performance. However, due to the high contextual variations and temporal dynamics in pedestrian behaviors, the interaction between autonomous-driving cars and pedestrians remains challenging, impeding the development of fully autonomous driving systems. This paper focuses on predicting pedestrian intention with a novel transformer-based evidential prediction (TrEP) algorithm. We develop a transformer module towards the temporal correlations among the input features within pedestrian video sequences and a deep evidential learning model to capture the AI uncertainty under scene complexities. Experimental results on three popular pedestrian intent benchmarks have verified the effectiveness of our proposed model over the state-of-the-art. The algorithm performance can be further boosted by controlling the uncertainty level. We systematically compare human disagreements with AI uncertainty to further evaluate AI performance in confusing scenes. The code is released at https://github.com/zzmonlyyou/TrEP.git. 

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4. Fairness through Aleatoric Uncertainty

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3583780.3614875  

   Tahir, Anique; Cheng, Lu; Liu, Huan (October 2023, ACM)

   We propose a simple yet effective solution to tackle the often-competing goals of fairness and utility in classification tasks. While fairness ensures that the model's predictions are unbiased and do not discriminate against any particular group or individual, utility focuses on maximizing the model's predictive performance. This work introduces the idea of leveraging aleatoric uncertainty (e.g., data ambiguity) to improve the fairness-utility trade-off. Our central hypothesis is that aleatoric uncertainty is a key factor for algorithmic fairness and samples with low aleatoric uncertainty are modeled more accurately and fairly than those with high aleatoric uncertainty. We then propose a principled model to improve fairness when aleatoric uncertainty is high and improve utility elsewhere. Our approach first intervenes in the data distribution to better decouple aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. It then introduces a fairness-utility bi-objective loss defined based on the estimated aleatoric uncertainty. Our approach is theoretically guaranteed to improve the fairness-utility trade-off. Experimental results on both tabular and image datasets show that the proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods w.r.t. the fairness-utility trade-off and w.r.t. both group and individual fairness metrics. This work presents a fresh perspective on the trade-off between utility and algorithmic fairness and opens a key avenue for the potential of using prediction uncertainty in fair machine learning. 

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5. Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling

   Hou, Bairu; Liu, Yujian; Qian, Kaizhi; Andreas, Jacob; Chang, Shiyu; Zhang, Yang (January 2024, ICML)

   Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a predictive model into aleatoric (data) uncertainty, resulting from inherent randomness in the data-generating process, and epistemic (model) uncertainty, resulting from missing information in the model’s training data. In large language models (LLMs) specifically, identifying sources of uncertainty is an important step toward improving reliability, trustworthiness, and interpretability, but remains an important open research question. In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty decomposition framework for LLMs, called input clarification ensembling, which can be applied to any pre-trained LLM. Our approach generates a set of clarifications for the input, feeds them into an LLM, and ensembles the corresponding predictions. We show that, when aleatoric uncertainty arises from ambiguity or under-specification in LLM inputs, this approach makes it possible to factor an (un-clarified) LLM’s predictions into separate aleatoric and epistemic terms, using a decomposition similar to the one employed by Bayesian neural networks. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that input clarification ensembling provides accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification on several language processing tasks. 

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