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Accurate representations of unknown and sub-grid physical processes through parameterizations (or closure) in numerical simulations with quantified uncertainty are critical for resolving the coarse-grained partial differential equations that govern many problems ranging from weather and climate prediction to turbulence simulations. Recent advances have seen machine learning (ML) increasingly applied to model these subgrid processes, resulting in the development of hybrid physics-ML models through the integration with numerical solvers. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for the joint estimation and uncertainty quantification of physical parameters and machine learning parameterizations in tandem, leveraging differentiable programming. Achieved through online training and efficient Bayesian inference within a high-dimensional parameter space, this approach is enabled by the capabilities of differentiable programming. This proof of concept underscores the substantial potential of differentiable programming in synergistically combining machine learning with differential equations, thereby enhancing the capabilities of hybrid physics-ML modeling.
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When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling
Recent advances in differentiable modeling, a genre of physics-informed machine learning that trains neural networks (NNs) together with process-based equations, have shown promise in enhancing hydrological models' accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge-discovery potential. Current differentiable models are efficient for NN-based parameter regionalization, but the simple explicit numerical schemes paired with sequential calculations (operator splitting) can incur numerical errors whose impacts on models' representation power and learned parameters are not clear. Implicit schemes, however, cannot rely on automatic differentiation to calculate gradients due to potential issues of gradient vanishing and memory demand. Here we propose a “discretize-then-optimize” adjoint method to enable differentiable implicit numerical schemes for the first time for large-scale hydrological modeling. The adjoint model demonstrates comprehensively improved performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency coefficients, peak-flow and low-flow metrics, and evapotranspiration that moderately surpass the already-competitive explicit model. Therefore, the previous sequential-calculation approach had a detrimental impact on the model's ability to represent hydrological dynamics. Furthermore, with a structural update that describes capillary rise, the adjoint model can better describe baseflow in arid regions and also produce low flows that outperform even pure machine learning methods such as long short-term memory networks. The adjoint model rectified some parameter distortions but did not alter spatial parameter distributions, demonstrating the robustness of regionalized parameterization. Despite higher computational expenses and modest improvements, the adjoint model's success removes the barrier for complex implicit schemes to enrich differentiable modeling in hydrology.
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- PAR ID:
- 10541021
- Publisher / Repository:
- European Geosciences Union
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
- Volume:
- 28
- Issue:
- 13
- ISSN:
- 1607-7938
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 3051 to 3077
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024
