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Title: Linking frass and insect phenology to optimize annual forest defoliation estimation
It is often logistically impractical to measure forest defoliation events in the field due to seasonal variability in larval feeding phenology (e.g., start, peak, and end) in any given year. As such, field data collections are either incomplete or at coarse temporal resolutions, both of which result in inaccurate estimation of annual defoliation (frass or foliage loss). Using Choristoneura pinus F. and Lymantria dispar dispar L., we present a novel approach that leverages a weather-driven insect simulation model (BioSIM) and defoliation field data. Our approach includes optimization of a weighting parameter (w) for each instar and imputation of defoliation. Results show a negative skew in this weighting parameter, where the second to last instar in a season exhibits the maxi- mum consumption and provides better estimates of annual frass and foliage biomass loss where sampling data gaps exist. Respective cross-validation RMSE (and normalized RMSE) results for C. pinus and L. dispar dispar are 77.53 kg·ha−¹ (0.16) and 38.24 kg·ha−¹ (0.02) for frass and 74.85 kg·ha−¹ (0.10) and 47.77 kg·ha−¹ (0.02) for foliage biomass loss imputation. Our method provides better estimates for ecosystem studies that leverage remote sensing data to scale defoliation rates from the field to broader landscapes and regions.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1920908
PAR ID:
10542312
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Elsevier BV
Date Published:
Journal Name:
MethodsX
Volume:
10
Issue:
C
ISSN:
2215-0161
Page Range / eLocation ID:
102075
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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