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The social media have been increasingly used for disaster management (DM) via providing real time data on a broad scale. For example, some smartphone applications (e.g. Disaster Alert and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) App) can be used to increase the efficiency of prepositioning supplies and to enhance the effectiveness of disaster relief efforts. To maximize utilities of these apps, it is imperative to have robust human behavior models in social networks with detailed expressions of individual decision-making processes and of the interactions among people. In this paper, we introduce a hierarchical human behavior model by associating extended Decision Field Theory (e-DFT) with the opinion formation and innovation diffusion models. Particularly, its expressiveness and validity are addressed in three ways. First, we estimate individual’s choice patterns in social networks by deriving people’s asymptotic choice probabilities within e-DFT. Second, by analyzing opinion formation models and innovation diffusion models in different types of social networks, the effects of neighbor’s opinions on people and their interactions are demonstrated. Finally, an agent-based simulation is used to trace agents’ dynamic behaviors in different scenarios. The simulated results reveal that the proposed models can be used to establish better disaster management strategies in natural disasters.
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Probabilistic simulation supports generalizable intuitive physics
How do people perform general-purpose physical reasoning across a variety of scenarios in everyday life? Across two stud ies with seven different physical scenarios, we asked participants to predict whether or where two objects will make contact. People achieved high accuracy and were highly consistent with each other in their predictions. We hypothesize that this robust generalization is a consequence of mental simulations of noisy physics. We designed an “intuitive physics engine” model to capture this generalizable simulation. We find that this model generalized in human-like ways to unseen stimuli and to a different query of predictions. We evaluated several state-of-the-art deep learning and scene feature models on the same task and found that they could not explain human predictions as well. This study provides evidence that human’s robust generalization in physics predictions are supported by a probabilistic simulation model, and suggests the need for structure in learned dynamics models.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2121009
- PAR ID:
- 10542746
- Publisher / Repository:
- Cognitive Science Society
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Location:
- https://escholarship.org/content/qt93j3f86q/qt93j3f86q_noSplash_cc592224fe0e74bb9c5a779349e62558.pdf
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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