skip to main content

Attention:

The NSF Public Access Repository (NSF-PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 10 until 2:00 AM ET on Friday, October 11 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Title: Improved dendroclimatic calibration using blue intensity in the southern Yukon

In north-western North America, the so-called divergence problem (DP) is expressed in tree ring width (RW) as an unstable temperature signal in recent decades. Maximum latewood density (MXD), from the same region, shows minimal evidence of DP. While MXD is a superior proxy for summer temperatures, there are very few long MXD records from North America. Latewood blue intensity (LWB) measures similar wood properties as MXD, expresses a similar climate response, is much cheaper to generate and thereby could provide the means to profoundly expand the extant network of temperature sensitive tree-ring (TR) chronologies in North America. In this study, LWB is measured from 17 white spruce sites ( Picea glauca) in south-western Yukon to test whether LWB is immune to the temporal calibration instabilities observed in RW. A number of detrending methodologies are examined. The strongest calibration results for both RW and LWB are consistently returned using age-dependent spline (ADS) detrending within the signal-free (SF) framework. RW data calibrate best with June–July maximum temperatures (Tmax), explaining up to 28% variance, but all models fail validation and residual analysis. In comparison, LWB calibrates strongly (explaining 43–51% of May–August Tmax) and validates well. The reconstruction extends to 1337 CE, but uncertainties increase substantially before the early 17th century because of low replication. RW-, MXD- and LWB-based summer temperature reconstructions from the Gulf of Alaska, the Wrangell Mountains and Northern Alaska display good agreement at multi-decadal and higher frequencies, but the Yukon LWB reconstruction appears potentially limited in its expression of centennial-scale variation. While LWB improves dendroclimatic calibration, future work must focus on suitably preserved sub-fossil material to increase replication prior to 1650 CE.

 
more » « less
Award ID(s):
1743738
NSF-PAR ID:
10546681
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
SAGE Publications
Date Published:
Journal Name:
The Holocene
Volume:
29
Issue:
11
ISSN:
0959-6836
Format(s):
Medium: X Size: p. 1817-1830
Size(s):
p. 1817-1830
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    The 1783–1784 CE Laki eruption in Iceland was one of the largest, in terms of the mass of SO2emitted, high‐latitude eruptions in the last millennium, but the seasonal and regional climate response was heterogeneous in space and time. Although the eruption did not begin until early June, tree‐ring maximum latewood density (MXD) reconstructions from Alaska suggest that the entire 1783 summer was extraordinarily cold. We use high‐resolution quantitative wood anatomy, climate model simulations, and proxy systems modeling to resolve the intra‐annual climate effects of the Laki eruption on temperatures over northwestern North America. We measured wood anatomical characteristics of white spruce (Picea glauca) trees from two northern Alaska sites. Earlywood cell characteristics of the 1783 ring are normal, while latewood cell wall thickness is significantly and anomalously reduced compared to non‐eruption years. Combined with complementary evidence from climate model experiments and proxy systems modeling, these features indicate an abrupt and premature cessation of cell wall thickening due to a rapid temperature decrease toward the end of the growing season. Reconstructions using conventional annual resolution MXD likely over‐estimate total growing season cooling in this year, while ring width fails to capture this abrupt late‐summer volcanic signal. Our study has implications not only for the interpretation of the climatic impacts of the Laki eruption in North America, but more broadly demonstrates the importance of timing and internal variability when comparing proxy temperature reconstructions and climate model simulations. It further demonstrates the value of developing cellular‐scale tree‐ring proxy measurements for paleoclimatology.

     
    more » « less
  2. Proxy evidence is necessary to place current temperature and hydroclimatic changes in a long‐term context and to assess the full range of natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. Here, we present the first millennium‐length reconstruction of late summer (August–September) temperature variability for the Mediterranean region. We compiled 132 maximum latewood density (MXD) tree‐ring series of living and relictPinus heldreichiitrees from a network of four high‐elevation sites in the Pindus Mountains of Greece. Forty series reach back into the first millennium and the oldest sample dates to 575 CE. At annual to decadal scales, the record correlates significantly with August–September temperatures over the Balkan Peninsula and northeastern Mediterranean (r1950–2014= 0.71,p< 0.001). We produce two reconstructions emphasizing interannual and decadal scale variance over the past millennium. Analysis of temperature extremes reveals the coldest summers occurred in 1035, 1117, 1217, 1884 and 1959 and the coldest decades were 1061–1070 and 1811–1820. The warmest summers occurred in 1240 and 1474, and the warmest decades were 1141–1150 and 1481–1490. Comparison of this new reconstruction with MXD‐based summer temperature reconstructions across Europe reveals synchronized occurrences of extreme cool summers in the northeastern Mediterranean, and an antiphase‐relationship with warm summer temperatures over the British Isles and Scandinavia. This temperature dipole is related to anomalies in the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic Jet. Despite the representation of common atmospheric forcing patterns, the occurrence of warm extremes is limited to few events, suggesting potential weaknesses of MXD to record warm temperature anomalies. In addition, we acknowledge problems in the observational data to capture local temperature variability due to small scale topographic differences in this high‐elevation landscape. At a broader geographical scale, the occurrence of common cold summer extremes is restricted to years with volcanically induced changes in radiative forcing.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract. We evaluate a range of blue intensity (BI) tree-ringparameters in eight conifer species (12 sites) from Tasmania and New Zealandfor their dendroclimatic potential, and as surrogate wood anatomicalproxies. Using a dataset of ca. 10–15 trees per site, we measured earlywoodmaximum blue intensity (EWB), latewood minimum blue intensity (LWB), and theassociated delta blue intensity (DB) parameter for dendrochronologicalanalysis. No resin extraction was performed, impacting low-frequency trends.Therefore, we focused only on the high-frequency signal by detrending alltree-ring and climate data using a 20-year cubic smoothing spline. All BIparameters express low relative variance and weak signal strength comparedto ring width. Correlation analysis and principal component regressionexperiments identified a weak and variable climate response for mostring-width chronologies. However, for most sites, the EWB data, despite weaksignal strength, expressed strong coherence with summer temperatures.Significant correlations for LWB were also noted, but the sign of therelationship for most species is opposite to that reported for all coniferspecies in the Northern Hemisphere. DB results were mixed but performedbetter for the Tasmanian sites when combined through principal componentregression methods than for New Zealand. Using the fullmulti-species/parameter network, excellent summer temperature calibrationwas identified for both Tasmania and New Zealand ranging from 52 % to78 % explained variance for split periods (1901–1950/1951–1995), withequally robust independent validation (coefficient of efficiency = 0.41 to0.77). Comparison of the Tasmanian BI reconstruction with a quantitativewood anatomical (QWA) reconstruction shows that these parameters recordessentially the same strong high-frequency summer temperature signal.Despite these excellent results, a substantial challenge exists with thecapture of potential secular-scale climate trends. Although DB, band-pass,and other signal processing methods may help with this issue, substantiallymore experimentation is needed in conjunction with comparative analysis withring density and QWA measurements. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    Paleoclimate data play a critical role in contextualizing recent hydroclimate extremes, but asymmetries in tree‐ring responses to extreme climate conditions pose challenges for reconstruction and interpretation of past climate. Here we establish the extent to which existing tree‐ring records capture precipitation extremes in western North America and evaluate climate factors hypothesized to lead to asymmetric extreme capture, including timing of precipitation, seasonal temperatures, snowpack, and atmospheric river events. We find that while there is dry‐biased asymmetry in one third of western North American tree‐ring records, 45% of sites capture wet extremes as well as or better than dry extremes. Summer extremes are rarely captured at any sites. Latitude and elevation affect site‐level extreme responses, as do seasonal climate conditions, particularly in the autumn and spring. Directly addressing asymmetric extreme value capture in tree‐ring records can aid our interpretation of past climate and help identify alternative avenues for future reconstructions.

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    Climate change has contributed to recent declines in mountain snowpack and earlier runoff, which in turn have intensified hydrological droughts in western North America. Climate model projections suggest that continued and severe snowpack reductions are expected over the 21st century, with profound consequences for ecosystems and human welfare. Yet the current understanding of trends and variability in mountain snowpack is limited by the relatively short and strongly temperature forced observational record. Motivated by the urgent need to better understand snowpack dynamics in a long-term, spatially coherent framework, here we examine snow-growth relationships in western North American tree-ring chronologies. We present an extensive network of snow-sensitive proxy data to support high space/time resolution paleosnow reconstruction, quantify and interpret the type and spatial density of snow related signals in tree-ring records, and examine the potential for regional bias in the tree-ring based reconstruction of different snow drought types (dry versus warm). Our results indicate three distinct snow-growth relationships in tree-ring chronologies: moisture-limited snow proxies that include a spring temperature signal, moisture-limited snow proxies lacking a spring temperature signal, and energy-limited snow proxies. Each proxy type is based on distinct physiological tree-growth mechanisms related to topographic and climatic site conditions, and provides unique information on mountain snowpack dynamics that can be capitalized upon within a statistical reconstruction framework. This work provides a platform and foundational background required for the accelerated production of high-quality annually resolved snowpack reconstructions from regional to high (<12 km) spatial scales in western North America and, by extension, will support an improved understanding of the vulnerability of snowmelt-derived water resources to natural variability and future climate warming.

     
    more » « less