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Abstract. Climate variability in the last millennium (past 1000 years) is dominated by the effects of large-magnitude volcanic eruptions; however, a long-standing mismatch exists between model-simulated and tree-ring-derived surface cooling. Accounting for the self-limiting effects of large sulfur dioxide (SO2) injections and the limitations in tree-ring records, such as lagged responses due to biological memory, reconciles some of the discrepancy, but uncertainties remain, particularly for the largest tropical eruptions. The representation of volcanic forcing in the latest generation of climate models has improved significantly, but most models prescribe the aerosol optical properties rather than using SO2 emissions directly and including interactions between the aerosol, chemistry, and dynamics. Here, we use the UK Earth System Model (UKESM) to simulate the climate of the last millennium (1250–1850 CE) using volcanic SO2 emissions. Averaged across all large-magnitude eruptions, we find similar Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer cooling compared with other last-millennium climate simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4), run with both SO2 emissions and prescribed forcing, and a continued overestimation of surface cooling compared with tree-ring reconstructions. However, for the largest-magnitude tropical eruptions in 1257 (Mt. Samalas) and 1815 (Mt. Tambora), some models, including UKESM1, suggest a smaller NH summer cooling that is in better agreement with tree-ring records. In UKESM1, we find that the simulated volcanic forcing differs considerably from the PMIP4 dataset used in models without interactive aerosol schemes, with marked differences in the hemispheric spread of the aerosol, resulting in lower forcing in the NH when SO2 emissions are used. Our results suggest that, for the largest tropical eruptions, the spatial distribution of aerosol can account for some of the discrepancies between model-simulated and tree-ring-derived cooling. Further work should therefore focus on better resolving the spatial distribution of aerosol forcing for past eruptions.
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The 852/3 CE Mount Churchill eruption: examining the potential climatic and societal impacts and the timing of the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the North Atlantic region
Abstract. The 852/3 CE eruption of Mount Churchill, Alaska, was one of the largestfirst-millennium volcanic events, with a magnitude of 6.7 (VEI 6) and atephra volume of 39.4–61.9 km3 (95 % confidence). The spatial extent of the ash fallout from this event is considerable and the cryptotephra (White River Ash east; WRAe) extends as far as Finland and Poland. Proximal ecosystem and societal disturbances have been linked with this eruption; however, wider eruption impacts on climate and society are unknown. Greenland ice core records show that the eruption occurred in winter 852/3 ± 1 CE and that the eruption is associated with a relatively moderate sulfate aerosol loading but large abundances of volcanic ash and chlorine. Here we assess the potential broader impact of this eruption using palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, historical records and climate model simulations. We also use the fortuitous timing of the 852/3 CE Churchill eruption and its extensively widespread tephra deposition of the White River Ash (east) (WRAe) to examine the climatic expression of the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly period (MCA; ca. 950–1250 CE) from precisely linked peatlands in the North Atlantic region. The reconstructed climate forcing potential of the 852/3 CE Churchill eruptionis moderate compared with the eruption magnitude, but tree-ring-inferredtemperatures report a significant atmospheric cooling of 0.8 ∘Cin summer 853 CE. Modelled climate scenarios also show a cooling in 853 CE, although the average magnitude of cooling is smaller (0.3 ∘C). The simulated spatial patterns of cooling are generally similar to those generated using the tree-ring-inferred temperature reconstructions. Tree-ring-inferred cooling begins prior to the date of the eruption suggesting that natural internal climate variability may have increased the climate system's susceptibility to further cooling. The magnitude of the reconstructed cooling could also suggest that the climate forcing potential of this eruption may be underestimated, thereby highlighting the need for greater insight into, and consideration of, the role of halogens and volcanic ash when estimating eruption climate forcing potential. Precise comparisons of palaeoenvironmental records from peatlands acrossNorth America and Europe, facilitated by the presence of the WRAe isochron,reveal no consistent MCA signal. These findings contribute to the growingbody of evidence that characterises the MCA hydroclimate astime-transgressive and heterogeneous rather than a well-defined climaticperiod. The presence of the WRAe isochron also demonstrates that nolong-term (multidecadal) climatic or societal impacts from the 852/3 CEChurchill eruption were identified beyond areas proximal to the eruption.Historical evidence in Europe for subsistence crises demonstrate a degree of temporal correspondence on interannual timescales, but similar events were reported outside of the eruption period and were common in the 9thcentury. The 852/3 CE Churchill eruption exemplifies the difficulties ofidentifying and confirming volcanic impacts for a single eruption, even whenthe eruption has a small age uncertainty.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1824770
- PAR ID:
- 10549127
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- European Geosciences Union, Copernicus Publications
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Climate of the Past
- Volume:
- 18
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 1814-9332
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1475 to 1508
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Mount Churchill volcanic eruption, palynology, tree-rings, historical climatology, Nile
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1475-2022
