We present predictions for the high-redshift halo–galaxy–supermassive black hole (SMBH) connection from the Trinity model. Matching a comprehensive compilation of galaxy (0 ≤ z ≤ 13) and SMBH data sets (0 ≤ z ≤ 6.5), Trinity finds: (1) The number of SMBHs with M• > 109 M⊙ in the observable Universe increases by five orders of magnitude from z ∼ 10 to z ∼ 2, and by another factor of ∼3 from z ∼ 2 to z = 0; (2) The M• > 109 and 1010 M⊙ SMBHs at z ∼ 6 live in haloes with ∼(2 − 3) and (3 − 5) × 1012 M⊙; (3) the newly discovered JWST AGN candidates at 7 ≲ z ≲ 11 are overmassive compared to the intrinsic SMBH mass–galaxy mass relation from Trinity, but they are still broadly consistent with Trinity predictions for flux limited AGN samples with Lauer bias. This bias favours the detection for overmassive SMBHs due to higher luminosities at a fixed Eddington ratio. However UHZ1’s M•/M* ratio is still some 1 dex higher than Trinity AGNs, indicating a discrepancy; (4) Trinity underpredicts the number densities of GN-z11 and CEERS_1019 analogues. But given the strong constraints from existing data in Trinity, the extra constraint from GN-z11 and CEERS_1019 does not significantly change trinity model results. (5) z = 6–10 quasar luminosity functions will reduce uncertainties in the trinity prediction of the z = 6–10 SMBH mass–galaxy mass relation by up to ∼0.5 dex. These luminosity functions will be available with future telescopes, such as Roman and Euclid.
This content will become publicly available on August 1, 2025
The first wave of observations with JWST has revealed a striking overabundance of luminous galaxies at early times (
- Award ID(s):
- 2205900
- PAR ID:
- 10550062
- Publisher / Repository:
- Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics
- Volume:
- 2024
- Issue:
- 08
- ISSN:
- 1475-7516
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 025
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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