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Title: Sensitivity changes of US maize yields to extreme heat through timely precipitation patterns
Abstract Warm temperatures due to increases of greenhouse gas emissions have changed temperature distribution patterns especially for their extremes, which negatively affect crop yields. However, the assessment of these negative impacts remains unclear when surface precipitation patterns are shifted. Using a statistical model along with 23,944 county-year maize-yield data during 1981–2020 in the US Corn Belt, we found that the occurrence of timely precipitation reduced the sensitivity of maize yields to extreme heat by an average of 20% during the growing season with variations across phenological periods. Spatially across the US corn belt, maize in the northern region exhibited more significant benefits from timely precipitation compared to the southern region, despite the pronounced negative effects of extreme heat on yields in cooler regions. This study underscores the necessity of incorporating timely precipitation as a pivotal factor in estimating heat effects under evolving climates, offering valuable insights into complex climate-related challenges.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2345039
PAR ID:
10553458
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
IOP Publishing
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Communications
Volume:
6
Issue:
7
ISSN:
2515-7620
Page Range / eLocation ID:
071009
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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