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Primary productivity response to climatic drivers varies temporally, indicating state-dependent interactions between climate and productivity. Previous studies primarily employed equation-based approaches to clarify this relationship, ignoring the state-dependent nature of ecological dynamics. Here, using 40 y of climate and productivity data from 48 grassland sites across Mongolia, we applied an equation-free, nonlinear time-series analysis to reveal sensitivity patterns of productivity to climate change and variability and clarify underlying mechanisms. We showed that productivity responded positively to annual precipitation in mesic regions but negatively in arid regions, with the opposite pattern observed for annual mean temperature. Furthermore, productivity responded negatively to decreasing annual aridity that integrated precipitation and temperature across Mongolia. Productivity responded negatively to interannual variability in precipitation and aridity in mesic regions but positively in arid regions. Overall, interannual temperature variability enhanced productivity. These response patterns are largely unrecognized; however, two mechanisms are inferable. First, time-delayed climate effects modify annual productivity responses to annual climate conditions. Notably, our results suggest that the sensitivity of annual productivity to increasing annual precipitation and decreasing annual aridity can even be negative when the negative time-delayed effects of annual precipitation and aridity on productivity prevail across time. Second, the proportion of plant species resistant to water and temperature stresses at a site determines the sensitivity of productivity to climate variability. Thus, we highlight the importance of nonlinear, state-dependent sensitivity of productivity to climate change and variability, accurately forecasting potential biosphere feedback to the climate system.
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Cross-continental comparison of plant reproductive phenology shows high intraspecific variation in temperature sensitivity
Abstract The success of plant species under climate change will be determined, in part, by their phenological responses to temperature. Despite the growing need to forecast such outcomes across entire species ranges, it remains unclear how phenological sensitivity to temperature might vary across individuals of the same species. In this study, we harnessed community science data to document intraspecific patterns in phenological temperature sensitivity across the multicontinental range of six herbaceous plant species. Using linear models, we correlated georeferenced temperature data with 23 220 plant phenological records from iNaturalist to generate spatially explicit estimates of phenological temperature sensitivity across the shared range of species. We additionally evaluated the geographic association between local historic climate conditions (i.e. mean annual temperature [MAT] and interannual variability in temperature) and the temperature sensitivity of plants. We found that plant temperature sensitivity varied substantially at both the interspecific and intraspecific levels, demonstrating that phenological responses to climate change have the potential to vary both within and among species. Additionally, we provide evidence for a strong geographic association between plant temperature sensitivity and local historic climate conditions. Plants were more sensitive to temperature in hotter climates (i.e. regions with high MAT), but only in regions with high interannual temperature variability. In regions with low interannual temperature variability, plants displayed universally weak sensitivity to temperature, regardless of baseline annual temperature. This evidence suggests that pheno-climatic forecasts may be improved by accounting for intraspecific variation in phenological temperature sensitivity. Broad climatic factors such as MAT and interannual temperature variability likely serve as useful predictors for estimating temperature sensitivity across species’ ranges.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1936971
- PAR ID:
- 10554408
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- AoB PLANTS
- Volume:
- 16
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2041-2851
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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