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1. Advancing a Major U.S. Airline’s Practice in Flight-level Checked Baggage Prediction

   https://doi.org/10.1093/iti/liae001  

   Chen, Shijie; Park, Chiwoo; Guo, Qianwen; Sun, Yanshuo (March 2024, Intelligent Transportation Infrastructure)

   In this paper, we aim to address a relevant estimation problem that aviation professionals encounter in their daily operations. Specifically, aircraft load planners require information on the expected number of checked bags for a flight several hours prior to its scheduled departure to properly palletize and load the aircraft. However, the checked baggage prediction problem has not been sufficiently studied in the literature, particularly at the flight level. Existing prediction approaches have not properly accounted for the different impacts of overestimating and underestimating checked baggage volumes on airline operations. Therefore, we propose a custom loss function, in the form of a piecewise quadratic function, which aligns with airline operations practice and utilizes machine learning algorithms to optimize checked baggage predictions incorporating the new loss function. We consider multiple linear regression, LightGBM, and XGBoost, as supervised learning algorithms. We apply our proposed methods to baggage data from a major airline and additional data from various U.S. government agencies. We compare the performance of the three customized supervised learning algorithms. We find that the two gradient boosting methods (i.e., LightGBM and XGBoost) yield higher accuracy than the multiple linear regression; XGBoost outperforms LightGBM while LightGBM requires much less training time than XGBoost. We also investigate the performance of XGBoost on samples from different categories and provide insights for selecting an appropriate prediction algorithm to improve baggage prediction practices. Our modeling framework can be adapted to address other prediction challenges in aviation, such as predicting the number of standby passengers or no-shows. 

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2. Abstraction and analogy‐making in artificial intelligence

   https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14619  

   Mitchell, Melanie (June 2021, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences)

   Abstract Conceptual abstraction and analogy‐making are key abilities underlying humans' abilities to learn, reason, and robustly adapt their knowledge to new domains. Despite a long history of research on constructing artificial intelligence (AI) systems with these abilities, no current AI system is anywhere close to a capability of forming humanlike abstractions or analogies. This paper reviews the advantages and limitations of several approaches toward this goal, including symbolic methods, deep learning, and probabilistic program induction. The paper concludes with several proposals for designing challenge tasks and evaluation measures in order to make quantifiable and generalizable progress in this area. 

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3. A Reference Architecture of Human Cyber-Physical Systems – Part III: Semantic Foundations

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3622881  

   Damm, Werner; Fränzle, Martin; Kerscher, Alyssa J.; Laine, Forrest; Bengler, Klaus; Biebl, Bianca; Hagemann, Willem; Held, Moritz; Hess, David; Ihme, Klas; et al (January 2024, ACM Transactions on Cyber-Physical Systems)

   Chenyang Lu (Ed.)

   The design and analysis of multi-agent human cyber-physical systems in safety-critical or industry-critical domains calls for an adequate semantic foundation capable of exhaustively and rigorously describing all emergent effects in the joint dynamic behavior of the agents that are relevant to their safety and well-behavior. We present such a semantic foundation. This framework extends beyond previous approaches by extending the agent-local dynamic state beyond state components under direct control of the agent and belief about other agents (as previously suggested for understanding cooperative as well as rational behavior) to agent-local evidence and belief about the overall cooperative, competitive, or coopetitive game structure. We argue that this extension is necessary for rigorously analyzing systems of human cyber-physical systems because humans are known to employ cognitive replacement models of system dynamics that are both non-stationary and potentially incongruent. These replacement models induce visible and potentially harmful effects on their joint emergent behavior and the interaction with cyber-physical system components. 

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4. Networks of beliefs: An integrative theory of individual- and social-level belief dynamics.

   https://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000494  

   Dalege, Jonas; Galesic, Mirta; Olsson, Henrik (September 2024, Psychological Review)

   We present a theory of belief dynamics that explains the interplay between internal beliefs in people’s minds and beliefs of others in their external social environments. The networks of belief theory goes beyond existing theories of belief dynamics in three ways. First, it provides an explicit connection between belief networks in individual minds and belief dynamics on social networks. The connection, absent from most previous theories, is established through people’s social beliefs or perceived beliefs of others. Second, the theory recognizes that the correspondence between social beliefs and others’ actual beliefs can be imperfect, because social beliefs are affected by personal beliefs as well as by the actual beliefs of others. Past theories of belief dynamics on social networks do not distinguish between perceived and actual beliefs of others. Third, the theory explains diverse belief dynamics phenomena parsimoniously through the differences in attention and the resulting felt dissonances in personal, social, and external parts of belief networks. We implement our theoretical assumptions in a computational model within a statistical physics framework and derive model predictions. We find support for our theoretical assumptions and model predictions in two large survey studies (N1 = 973, N2 = 669). We then derive insights about diverse phenomena related to belief dynamics, including group consensus and polarization, group radicalization, minority influence, and different empirically observed belief distributions. We discuss how the theory goes beyond different existing models of belief dynamics and outline promising directions for future research. 

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5. Collaborative Programming for Work-Relevant Learning: Comparing Programming Practice with Example-Based Reflection for Student Learning and Transfer Task Performance

   https://doi.org/10.1109/TLT.2022.3169121  

   Sankaranarayanan, Sreecharan; Kandimalla, Siddharth Reddy; Bogart, Christopher; Murray, R. Charles; Hilton, Michael; Sakr, Majd F; Rose, Carolyn Penstein (April 2022, IEEE Transactions on Learning Technologies)

   Computer science pedagogy, especially in the higher education and vocational training context, has long-favored the hands-on practice provided by programming tasks due to the belief that this leads to better performance on hands-on tasks at work. This assumption, however, has not been experimentally tested against other modes of engagement such as worked example-based reflection. While theory suggests that example-based reflection could be better for conceptual learning, the concern is that the lack of practice will leave students unable to implement the learned concepts in practice, thus leaving them unprepared for work. In this paper, therefore, we experimentally contrast programming practice with example-based reflection to observe their differential impact on conceptual learning and performance on a hands-on task in the context of a collaborative programming project. The industry paradigm of Mob Programming, adapted for use in an online and instructional context, is used to structure the collaboration. Keeping with the prevailing view held in pedagogy, we hypothesize that example-based reflection will lead to better conceptual learning but will be detrimental to hands-on task performance. Results support that reflection leads to conceptual learning. Additionally, however, reflection does not pose an impediment to hands-on task performance. We discuss possible explanations for this effect, thus providing an improved understanding of prior theory in this new computer science education context. We also discuss implications for the pedagogy of software engineering education, in light of this new evidence, that impacts student learning as well as work performance in the future. 

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