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Abstract This paper examines the trends in hot summer days for the Pacific Northwest in observations and a regional climate model ensemble. Hot days are identified by the temperature threshold for several percentile values computed over 10-year intervals (85, 90, 95, and absolute maximum) to differentiate heat events of different intensities and are compared to the median temperature (50 th percentile). For the stations analyzed, the observed rate of warming during hot days is not statistically different from the warming rate of median days since the 1950s. However, for projections to 2100, hot days show a statistically significant increase in the warming rate of the hottest days compared to the warming rate for median days. Depending on location, the 95 th percentile daily maximum temperature shows a warming rate of up to 0.2°C per decade above the median warming rate. The divergence in the trends of median and extreme temperature shows substantial regional variation depending on local terrain and coastlines. The warming trend during hot days is related to the unique circulation patterns during heat events, which respond to different feedbacks and amplifying effects in the land-atmosphere system from those that prevail during typical days. The regional climate model simulations are taken from an ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations forced by 12 global climate model simulations from the 5 th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using the RCP8.5 emissions scenario and 12-km grid spacing.
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Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations
Multiple recent record-shattering weather events raise questions about the adequacy of climate models to effectively predict and prepare for unprecedented climate impacts on human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Here, we show that extreme heat in several regions globally is increasing significantly and faster in magnitude than what state-of-the-art climate models have predicted under present warming even after accounting for their regional summer background warming. Across all global land area, models underestimate positive trends exceeding 0.5 °C per decade in widening of the upper tail of extreme surface temperature distributions by a factor of four compared to reanalysis data and exhibit a lower fraction of significantly increasing trends overall. To a lesser degree, models also underestimate observed strong trends of contraction of the upper tails in some areas, while moderate trends are well reproduced in a global perspective. Our results highlight the need to better understand and model the drivers of extreme heat and to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to avoid further harm from unexpected weather events.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1934358
- PAR ID:
- 10556908
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 121
- Issue:
- 49
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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