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1. The 2018 Eruption of Kīlauea: Insights, Puzzles, and Opportunities for Volcano Science

   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-075925  

   Anderson, Kyle R.; Shea, Thomas; Lynn, Kendra J.; Montgomery-Brown, Emily K.; Swanson, Donald A.; Patrick, Matthew R.; Shiro, Brian R.; Neal, Christina A. (May 2024, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences)

   The science of volcanology advances disproportionately during exceptionally large or well-observed eruptions. The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai‘i) was its most impactful in centuries, involving an outpouring of more than one cubic kilometer of basalt, a magnitude 7 flank earthquake, and the volcano's largest summit collapse since at least the nineteenth century. Eruptive activity was documented in detail, yielding new insights into large caldera-rift eruptions; the geometry of a shallow magma storage-transport system and its interaction with rift zone tectonics; mechanisms of basaltic tephra-producing explosions; caldera collapse mechanics; and the dynamics of fissure eruptions and high-volume lava flows. Insights are broadly applicable to a range of volcanic systems and should reduce risk from future eruptions. Multidisciplinary collaboration will be required to fully leverage the diversity of monitoring data to address many of the most important outstanding questions. ▪ Unprecedented observations of a caldera collapse and coupled rift zone eruption yield new opportunities for advancing volcano science. ▪ Magma flow to a low-elevation rift zone vent triggered quasi-periodic step-like collapse of a summit caldera, which pressurized the magma system and sustained the eruption. ▪ Kīlauea's magmatic-tectonic system is tightly interconnected over tens of kilometers, with complex feedback mechanisms and interrelated hazards over widely varying time scales. ▪ The eruption revealed magma stored in diverse locations, volumes, and compositions, not only beneath the summit but also within the volcano's most active rift zone. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 52 is May 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates. 

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2. Reckoning with the Rocky Relationship Between Eruption Size and Climate Response: Toward a Volcano-Climate Index

   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-080921-052816  

   Schmidt, Anja; Black, Benjamin A. (May 2022, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences)

   Volcanic eruptions impact climate, subtly and profoundly. The size of an eruption is only loosely correlated with the severity of its climate effects, which can include changes in surface temperature, ozone levels, stratospheric dynamics, precipitation, and ocean circulation. We review the processes—in magma chambers, eruption columns, and the oceans, biosphere, and atmosphere—that mediate the climate response to an eruption. A complex relationship between eruption size, style, duration, and the subsequent severity of the climate response emerges. We advocate for a new, consistent metric, the Volcano-Climate Index, to categorize climate response to eruptions independent of eruption properties and spanning the full range of volcanic activity, from brief explosive eruptions to long-lasting flood basalts. A consistent metric for categorizing the climate response to eruptions that differ in size, style, and duration is critical for establishing the relationshipbetween the severity and the frequency of such responses aiding hazard assessments, and furthering understanding of volcanic impacts on climate on timescales of years to millions of years. ▪ We review the processes driving the rocky relationship between eruption size and climate response and propose a Volcano-Climate Index. ▪ Volcanic eruptions perturb Earth's climate on a range of timescales, with key open questions regarding how processes in the magmatic system, eruption column, and atmosphere shape the climate response to volcanism. ▪ A Volcano-Climate Index will provide information on the volcano-climate severity-frequency distribution, analogous to earthquake hazards. ▪ Understanding of the frequency of specific levels of volcanic climate effects will aid hazard assessments, planning, and mitigation of societal impacts. 

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3. Volcanic Hazard Assessment for an Eruption Hiatus, or Post-eruption Unrest Context: Modeling Continued Dome Collapse Hazards for Soufrière Hills Volcano

   https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.535567  

   Spiller, Elaine T.; Wolpert, Robert L.; Ogburn, Sarah E.; Calder, Eliza S.; Berger, James O.; Patra, Abani K.; Pitman, E. Bruce (December 2020, Frontiers in Earth Science)

   null (Ed.)

   Effective volcanic hazard management in regions where populations live in close proximity to persistent volcanic activity involves understanding the dynamic nature of hazards, and associated risk. Emphasis until now has been placed on identification and forecasting of the escalation phase of activity, in order to provide adequate warning of what might be to come. However, understanding eruption hiatus and post-eruption unrest hazards, or how to quantify residual hazard after the end of an eruption, is also important and often key to timely post-eruption recovery. Unfortunately, in many cases when the level of activity lessens, the hazards, although reduced, do not necessarily cease altogether. This is due to both the imprecise nature of determination of the “end” of an eruptive phase as well as to the possibility that post-eruption hazardous processes may continue to occur. An example of the latter is continued dome collapse hazard from lava domes which have ceased to grow, or sector collapse of parts of volcanic edifices, including lava dome complexes. We present a new probabilistic model for forecasting pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) from lava dome collapse that takes into account the heavy-tailed distribution of the lengths of eruptive phases, the periods of quiescence, and the forecast window of interest. In the hazard analysis, we also consider probabilistic scenario models describing the flow’s volume and initial direction. Further, with the use of statistical emulators, we combine these models with physics-based simulations of PDCs at Soufrière Hills Volcano to produce a series of probabilistic hazard maps for flow inundation over 5, 10, and 20 year periods. The development and application of this assessment approach is the first of its kind for the quantification of periods of diminished volcanic activity. As such, it offers evidence-based guidance for dome collapse hazards that can be used to inform decision-making around provisions of access and reoccupation in areas around volcanoes that are becoming less active over time. 

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4. Stepping back to the source: The expression of eruption column collapse through submarine terraces

   Gilchrist, Johan; Jellinek, AM; Hooft, E; Wanket, S (December 2024, 2024 Fall Meeting, American Geophysical Union)

   Explosive eruption jets rising through relatively shallow water layers form eruption columns that can deliver volcanic ash, gases, and entrained water to the atmosphere and ocean in sequence or simultaneously, depending on eruption source parameters (Gilchrist et al. 2023). Despite the mesospheric eruption column height of the January 15, 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH), the majority of erupted material was delivered to the surrounding seafloor via submarine pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Deposits of HTHH show evidence of axisymmetric terraced deposits, which we show are linked to the mass eruption rate and dynamics of column collapse. We use scaled analog experiments on multiphase sand-water fountains injected into water layers of varying depth to model the collapse dynamics of shallow water eruption columns and to link fountain source conditions to deposit topography. The source strength of multiphase fountains predicts whether they collapse periodically or continuously via sedimentation waves with varying frequency and momentum. In turn, the frequency and momentum of sedimentation waves impacting the tank base determines whether ground-hugging gravity currents flowing out of the sedimentation wave impact zone are initially erosive or depositional. On the basis of experiments, we propose that syn-eruptive shallow submarine caldera deposits that show evidence of terracing and proximal scouring are linked to relatively strong eruption jets in the regime where the jet is in partial collapse or total collapse. In these regimes, the eruption jet collapses periodically as sedimentation waves that erode the deposit in the impact zone and transition into submarine PDCs that deposit the sedimentation wave mixture into regularly spaced terraces thereafter (Fig. 1, black boxes). In contrast, we expect weak eruption jets to occur in the total collapse regime where sedimentation waves descend in rapid succession and effectively supply submarine PDCs continuously which, in turn, build deposits lacking terraces (Fig. 1, blue box). For common values of caldera eruption source parameters, we link submarine PDC deposit morphology to eruption jet strength and plausible mass eruption rates. 

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5. Expedition 398 Scientific Prospectus: Hellenic Arc Volcanic Field

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.sp.398.2022  

    Druitt, T.; Kutterolf, S.; Höfig, T.W. (March 2022, Scientific prospectus)

   The understanding of island arc volcanism and associated hazards requires study of the processes that drive such volcanism and how the volcanoes interact with their marine surroundings. What are the links and feedbacks between crustal tectonics, volcanic activity, and magma genesis? What are the dynamics and impacts of submarine explosive volcanism and caldera-forming eruptions? How do calderas collapse during explosive eruptions and then recover to enter new magmatic cycles? What are the reactions of marine ecosystems to volcanic eruptions? The Christiana-Santorini-Kolumbo (CSK) volcanic field on the Hellenic volcanic arc is a unique system for addressing these questions. It consists of three large volcanic centers (Christiana, Santorini, and Kolumbo), and a line of small submarine cones, founded on thinned continental crust in a 100 km long rift zone that cuts across the island arc. The marine rift basins around the CSK field, as well as the Santorini caldera, contain volcano-sedimentary fills up to several hundreds of meters thick, providing rich archives of CSK volcanic products, tectonic evolution, magma genesis and paleoenvironments accessible only by deep drilling backed up by seismic interpretations. We will drill four primary sites in the rift's basins and two additional primary sites inside the Santorini caldera. The expedition science has five main objectives, each with a leading testable hypothesis, and two secondary objectives. Deep ocean drilling will enable us to identify, characterize, and interpret depositional packages visible on seismic images, chemically correlate primary volcaniclastic layers in the rift fills with their source volcanoes, fill in the many gaps in the onshore volcanic records, provide a tight chronostratigraphic framework for rift tectonic and sedimentary histories, and sample deep subsurface microbial life. 

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