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1. The 2018 Eruption of Kīlauea: Insights, Puzzles, and Opportunities for Volcano Science

   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-075925  

   Anderson, Kyle R.; Shea, Thomas; Lynn, Kendra J.; Montgomery-Brown, Emily K.; Swanson, Donald A.; Patrick, Matthew R.; Shiro, Brian R.; Neal, Christina A. (May 2024, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences)

   The science of volcanology advances disproportionately during exceptionally large or well-observed eruptions. The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai‘i) was its most impactful in centuries, involving an outpouring of more than one cubic kilometer of basalt, a magnitude 7 flank earthquake, and the volcano's largest summit collapse since at least the nineteenth century. Eruptive activity was documented in detail, yielding new insights into large caldera-rift eruptions; the geometry of a shallow magma storage-transport system and its interaction with rift zone tectonics; mechanisms of basaltic tephra-producing explosions; caldera collapse mechanics; and the dynamics of fissure eruptions and high-volume lava flows. Insights are broadly applicable to a range of volcanic systems and should reduce risk from future eruptions. Multidisciplinary collaboration will be required to fully leverage the diversity of monitoring data to address many of the most important outstanding questions. ▪ Unprecedented observations of a caldera collapse and coupled rift zone eruption yield new opportunities for advancing volcano science. ▪ Magma flow to a low-elevation rift zone vent triggered quasi-periodic step-like collapse of a summit caldera, which pressurized the magma system and sustained the eruption. ▪ Kīlauea's magmatic-tectonic system is tightly interconnected over tens of kilometers, with complex feedback mechanisms and interrelated hazards over widely varying time scales. ▪ The eruption revealed magma stored in diverse locations, volumes, and compositions, not only beneath the summit but also within the volcano's most active rift zone. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 52 is May 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates. 

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2. Reckoning with the Rocky Relationship Between Eruption Size and Climate Response: Toward a Volcano-Climate Index

   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-080921-052816  

   Schmidt, Anja; Black, Benjamin A. (May 2022, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences)

   Volcanic eruptions impact climate, subtly and profoundly. The size of an eruption is only loosely correlated with the severity of its climate effects, which can include changes in surface temperature, ozone levels, stratospheric dynamics, precipitation, and ocean circulation. We review the processes—in magma chambers, eruption columns, and the oceans, biosphere, and atmosphere—that mediate the climate response to an eruption. A complex relationship between eruption size, style, duration, and the subsequent severity of the climate response emerges. We advocate for a new, consistent metric, the Volcano-Climate Index, to categorize climate response to eruptions independent of eruption properties and spanning the full range of volcanic activity, from brief explosive eruptions to long-lasting flood basalts. A consistent metric for categorizing the climate response to eruptions that differ in size, style, and duration is critical for establishing the relationshipbetween the severity and the frequency of such responses aiding hazard assessments, and furthering understanding of volcanic impacts on climate on timescales of years to millions of years. ▪ We review the processes driving the rocky relationship between eruption size and climate response and propose a Volcano-Climate Index. ▪ Volcanic eruptions perturb Earth's climate on a range of timescales, with key open questions regarding how processes in the magmatic system, eruption column, and atmosphere shape the climate response to volcanism. ▪ A Volcano-Climate Index will provide information on the volcano-climate severity-frequency distribution, analogous to earthquake hazards. ▪ Understanding of the frequency of specific levels of volcanic climate effects will aid hazard assessments, planning, and mitigation of societal impacts. 

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3. Enhanced Mobility in Concentrated Pyroclastic Density Currents: An Examination of a Self-Fluidization Mechanism

   https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075759  

   Breard, Eric C.; Dufek, Josef; Lube, Gert (January 2018, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are a significant volcanic hazard. However, their dominant transport mechanisms remain poorly understood, in part because of the large variability of PDC types and deposits. Here we combine field data with experimental and numerical simulations to illuminate the twofold fate of particles settling from an ash cloud to form the dense PDC basal flow. At solid fractions >1 vol %, heterogeneous drag leads to formation of mesoscale particle clusters that favor rapid particle settling and result in a mobile dense layer with significant bed weight support. Conversely, at lower concentrations the absence of particle clusters typically leads to formation of poorly mobile dense beds that deposit massive layers. Based on this transport dichotomy, we present a numerical dense-dilute parameter that allows a PDC’s dominant transport mechanism to be determined directly from the deposit geometry and grainsize characteristics. 

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4. Volcanic Hazard Assessment for an Eruption Hiatus, or Post-eruption Unrest Context: Modeling Continued Dome Collapse Hazards for Soufrière Hills Volcano

   https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.535567  

   Spiller, Elaine T.; Wolpert, Robert L.; Ogburn, Sarah E.; Calder, Eliza S.; Berger, James O.; Patra, Abani K.; Pitman, E. Bruce (December 2020, Frontiers in Earth Science)

   null (Ed.)

   Effective volcanic hazard management in regions where populations live in close proximity to persistent volcanic activity involves understanding the dynamic nature of hazards, and associated risk. Emphasis until now has been placed on identification and forecasting of the escalation phase of activity, in order to provide adequate warning of what might be to come. However, understanding eruption hiatus and post-eruption unrest hazards, or how to quantify residual hazard after the end of an eruption, is also important and often key to timely post-eruption recovery. Unfortunately, in many cases when the level of activity lessens, the hazards, although reduced, do not necessarily cease altogether. This is due to both the imprecise nature of determination of the “end” of an eruptive phase as well as to the possibility that post-eruption hazardous processes may continue to occur. An example of the latter is continued dome collapse hazard from lava domes which have ceased to grow, or sector collapse of parts of volcanic edifices, including lava dome complexes. We present a new probabilistic model for forecasting pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) from lava dome collapse that takes into account the heavy-tailed distribution of the lengths of eruptive phases, the periods of quiescence, and the forecast window of interest. In the hazard analysis, we also consider probabilistic scenario models describing the flow’s volume and initial direction. Further, with the use of statistical emulators, we combine these models with physics-based simulations of PDCs at Soufrière Hills Volcano to produce a series of probabilistic hazard maps for flow inundation over 5, 10, and 20 year periods. The development and application of this assessment approach is the first of its kind for the quantification of periods of diminished volcanic activity. As such, it offers evidence-based guidance for dome collapse hazards that can be used to inform decision-making around provisions of access and reoccupation in areas around volcanoes that are becoming less active over time. 

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5. Expedition 398 Scientific Prospectus: Hellenic Arc Volcanic Field

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.sp.398.2022  

    Druitt, T.; Kutterolf, S.; Höfig, T.W. (March 2022, Scientific prospectus)

   The understanding of island arc volcanism and associated hazards requires study of the processes that drive such volcanism and how the volcanoes interact with their marine surroundings. What are the links and feedbacks between crustal tectonics, volcanic activity, and magma genesis? What are the dynamics and impacts of submarine explosive volcanism and caldera-forming eruptions? How do calderas collapse during explosive eruptions and then recover to enter new magmatic cycles? What are the reactions of marine ecosystems to volcanic eruptions? The Christiana-Santorini-Kolumbo (CSK) volcanic field on the Hellenic volcanic arc is a unique system for addressing these questions. It consists of three large volcanic centers (Christiana, Santorini, and Kolumbo), and a line of small submarine cones, founded on thinned continental crust in a 100 km long rift zone that cuts across the island arc. The marine rift basins around the CSK field, as well as the Santorini caldera, contain volcano-sedimentary fills up to several hundreds of meters thick, providing rich archives of CSK volcanic products, tectonic evolution, magma genesis and paleoenvironments accessible only by deep drilling backed up by seismic interpretations. We will drill four primary sites in the rift's basins and two additional primary sites inside the Santorini caldera. The expedition science has five main objectives, each with a leading testable hypothesis, and two secondary objectives. Deep ocean drilling will enable us to identify, characterize, and interpret depositional packages visible on seismic images, chemically correlate primary volcaniclastic layers in the rift fills with their source volcanoes, fill in the many gaps in the onshore volcanic records, provide a tight chronostratigraphic framework for rift tectonic and sedimentary histories, and sample deep subsurface microbial life. 

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