Abstract During the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT; ∼14.7–13.8 Ma), the global climate experienced rapid cooling, leading to modern‐like temperatures, precipitation patterns, and permanent ice sheets. However, proxy records indicate that atmospheric pCO2and regional climate conditions (SST, ice volume) were highly variable from 17 to 12.5 Ma and these changes were not always synchronous. Here, we report on a series of middle Miocene (∼16–12.5 Ma) simulations using the water isotope enabled earth system model (iCESM1.2) to explore the potential for multiple equilibrium states to explain the observed decoupling between pCO2and regional climates. Our simulations indicate that initial ocean conditions can significantly influence deep water formation in the North Atlantic and lead to multiple ocean equilibria. When the model is initiated from a cold state, residual cool surface water temperatures in the North Atlantic intensify Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC) and inhibit Arctic sea‐ice formation. When initiated from a warm state, the AMOC remains weak. The different ocean states drive differences in equator‐to‐pole sea surface temperature gradients and sea ice distributions through heat redistribution changes. These equilibria cause variations in temperature gradients and sea ice distribution due to changes in heat redistribution. Additionally, changes in ocean circulation and a reduced temperature gradient in the North Atlantic increase North Atlantic precipitation when the AMOC is strong. These findings underscore the importance of the ocean's initial state in shaping regional climate responses to atmospheric pCO2, potentially explaining regional climate pattern variability observed during the Miocene.
more »
« less
Climate variability, heat distribution, and polar amplification in the warm unipolar “icehouse” of the Oligocene
Abstract. The Oligocene (33.9–23.03 Ma) had warm climates with flattened meridional temperature gradients, while Antarctica retained a significant cryosphere. These may pose imperfect analogues to distant future climate states with unipolar icehouse conditions. Although local and regional climate and environmental reconstructions of Oligocene conditions are available, the community lacks synthesis of regional reconstructions. To provide a comprehensive overview of marine and terrestrial climate and environmental conditions in the Oligocene, and a reconstruction of trends through time, we review marine and terrestrial proxy records and compare these to numerical climate model simulations of the Oligocene. Results, based on the present relatively sparse data, suggest temperatures around the Equator that are similar to modern temperatures. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) show patterns similar to land temperatures, with warm conditions at mid- and high latitudes (∼60–90°), especially in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Vegetation-based precipitation reconstructions of the Oligocene suggest regionally drier conditions compared to modern times around the Equator. When compared to proxy data, climate model simulations overestimate Oligocene precipitation in most areas, particularly the tropics. Temperatures around the mid- to high latitudes are generally underestimated in models compared to proxy data and tend to overestimate the warming in the tropics. In line with previous proxy-to-model comparisons, we find that models underestimate polar amplification and overestimate the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient suggested from the available proxy data. This further stresses the urgency of solving this widely recorded problem for past warm climates, such as the Oligocene.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1842059
- PAR ID:
- 10557823
- Publisher / Repository:
- EGU/Copernicus
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Climate of the Past
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 1814-9332
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1627 to 1657
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract The Pliocene offers insights into future climate, with near‐modern atmospheric pCO2and global mean surface temperature estimated to be 3–4°C above pre‐industrial. However, the hydrological response differs between future global warming and early Pliocene climate model simulations. This discrepancy results from the use of reduced meridional and zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, based on foraminiferal Mg/Ca and Alkenone proxy evidence, to force the early Pliocene simulation. Subsequent, SST reconstructions based on the organic proxy TEX86, have found warmer temperatures in the warm pool, bringing the magnitude of the gradient reductions into dispute. We design an independent test of Pliocene SST scenarios and their hydrological cycle “fingerprints.” We use an isotope‐enabled General Circulation Model, iCAM5, to model the distribution of water isotopes in precipitation in response to four climatological SST and sea‐ice fields representing modern, abrupt 4 × CO2, late Pliocene and early Pliocene climates. We conduct a proxy‐model comparison with all the available precipitation isotope proxy data, and we identify target regions that carry precipitation isotopic fingerprints of SST gradients as priorities for additional proxy reconstructions. We identify two regions with distinct precipitation isotope (D/H) fingerprints resulting from reduced SST gradients: the Maritime Continent (D‐enriched due to reduced convective rainfall) and the Sahel (wetter, more deep convection, D‐depleted). The proxy‐model comparison using available plant wax reconstructions, mostly from Africa, is promising but inconclusive. Additional proxy reconstructions are needed in both target regions and in much of the world for significant tests of SST scenarios and dynamical linkages to the hydrological cycle.more » « less
-
Abstract In the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica, periodic large-scale marine ice-sheet fluctuations since the mid-Miocene are recorded by drill core and seismic data, revealing a dynamic ice-sheet response to past increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2. In the adjacent, predominantly ice-free McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs), preserved terrestrial landscapes reflect persistent cold conditions and have been interpreted as indicators of a stable polar ice sheet, implying that the Antarctic Ice Sheet was largely insensitive during past warm periods. These disparate data-based perspectives highlight a long-standing debate around the past stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, with direct implications for the future ice-sheet response to ongoing climate warming. We reconcile marine records of dynamic ice-sheet behavior and episodic open-marine conditions with nearby ancient terrestrial landscapes recording consistent cold-polar conditions. Coupled ice-sheet and regional climate models nested at a high resolution are used to investigate surface temperatures in the MDVs during past warm periods. We find that high-elevation regions of the MDVs remain below freezing even when ice-free conditions prevail in the nearby Ross Sea. We compare observed landscapes with the spatial extent of modeled persistent cold conditions required for preservation of these ancient features, demonstrating that frozen MDVs landscapes could have coexisted with receded or collapsed ice sheets during past warm periods.more » « less
-
Abstract The Miocene (23.03–5.33 Ma) is recognized as a period with close to modern‐day paleogeography, yet a much warmer climate. With large uncertainties in future hydroclimate projections, Miocene conditions illustrate a potential future analog for the Earth system. A recent opportunistic Miocene Model Intercomparison Project 1 (MioMIP1) focused on synthesizing published Miocene climate simulations and comparing them with available temperature reconstructions. Here, we build on this effort by analyzing the hydrological cycle response to Miocene forcings across early‐to‐middle (E2MMIO; 20.03–11.6 Ma) and middle‐to‐late Miocene (M2LMIO; 11.5–5.33 Ma) simulations with CO2concentrations ranging from 200 to 850 ppm and providing a model‐data comparison against available precipitation reconstructions. We find global precipitation increases by ∼2.1 and 2.3% per degree of warming for E2MMIO and M2LMIO simulations, respectively. Models generally agree on a wetter than modern‐day tropics; mid and high‐latitude, however, do not agree on the sign of subtropical precipitation changes with warming. Global monsoon analysis suggests most monsoon regions, except the North American Monsoon, experience higher precipitation rates under warmer conditions. Model‐data comparison shows that mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models regardless of CO2concentration, particularly in the mid‐ to high‐latitudes. This suggests that the models may not be (a) resolving key processes driving the hydrological cycle response to Miocene boundary conditions and/or (b) other boundary conditions or processes not considered here are critical to reproducing Miocene hydroclimate. This study highlights the challenges in modeling and reconstructing the Miocene hydrological cycle and serves as a baseline for future coordinated MioMIP efforts.more » « less
-
Abstract Earth's hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming, with a “wet‐gets‐wetter, dry‐gets‐drier” response anticipated over the ocean. Subtropical regions (∼15°–30°N/S) are predicted to become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these regions may be characterized by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data‐modeling approach to reconstruct global and zonal‐mean rainfall patterns during the early Eocene (∼56–48 million years ago). The Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) model ensemble indicates that the mid‐ (30°–60°N/S) and high‐latitudes (>60°N/S) are characterized by a thermodynamically dominated hydrological response to warming and overall wetter conditions. The tropical band (0°–15°N/S) is also characterized by wetter conditions, with several DeepMIP models simulating narrowing of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone. However, the latter is not evident from the proxy data. The subtropics are characterized by negative precipitation‐evaporation anomalies (i.e., drier conditions) in the DeepMIP models, but there is surprisingly large inter‐model variability in mean annual precipitation (MAP). Intriguingly, we find that models with weaker meridional temperature gradients (e.g., CESM, GFDL) are characterized by a reduction in subtropical moisture divergence, leading to an increase in MAP. These model simulations agree more closely with our new proxy‐derived precipitation reconstructions and other key climate metrics and imply that the early Eocene was characterized by reduced subtropical moisture divergence. If the meridional temperature gradient was even weaker than suggested by those DeepMIP models, circulation‐induced changes may have outcompeted thermodynamic changes, leading to wetter subtropics. This highlights the importance of accurately reconstructing zonal temperature gradients when reconstructing past rainfall patterns.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

