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Abstract El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability, and its predicted response to anthropogenic climate change remains unclear. Determining ENSO's sensitivity to climatic mean state and the strength of positive and negative feedbacks, notably the thermocline feedback, will help constrain its future behavior. To this end, we collected ENSO proxy data from the early and mid‐Pliocene, a time during which tropical Pacific zonal and vertical temperature gradients were much lower than today. We found that El Niño events had a reduced amplitude throughout the early Pliocene, compared to the late Holocene. By the mid‐Pliocene, El Niño amplitude was variable, sometimes reduced and sometimes similar to the late Holocene. This trend in Pliocene ENSO amplitude mirrors the long‐term strengthening of zonal and vertical temperature gradients and verifies model results showing dampened ENSO under reduced gradients due to a weaker thermocline feedback.
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This content will become publicly available on August 28, 2026
Warm Equatorial Upper Ocean Thermal Structure During the Mid‐Pliocene Warm Period: A Data‐Model Comparison
Abstract The tropical Pacific climate has an outsized impact on global climate, yet future projections are poorly constrained. Data‐model comparisons from the mid‐Pliocene warm period (3.3 million years ago) can help investigate warm climate dynamics and evaluate model behavior. Here we compare proxy records to PlioMIP2 models and a model with modified cloud albedo. Relative to modern, the mid‐Pliocene warm period records show subsurface warming across the tropical Pacific, strong eastern Pacific surface warming and weak western Pacific surface warming. Using clustering analyses to group model behavior relative to the proxy data, we find the model cluster with the best fit with the proxy data has enhanced warming in mid‐latitude thermocline source water regions which connect to the equator through the ventilated thermocline. Our study shows tropical ocean heat content during the mid‐Pliocene warm period was higher than today and has broad implications for the ocean's ability to absorb anthropogenic heat.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1844380
- PAR ID:
- 10655520
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 52
- Issue:
- 16
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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