An official website of the United States government
Abstract Herbivores and fire are important consumers of plant biomass that influence vegetation structure, nutrient cycling, and biodiversity globally. Departures from historic biomass consumption patterns due to wild herbivore losses, livestock proliferation, and altered fire regimes can have critical ecological consequences. We set out to (i) understand how consumer dominance and prevalence responded to spatial and temporal moisture gradients in Holocene North America and (ii) examine how past and present consumer dominance patterns in North America compare to less altered consumer regimes of modern Sub-Saharan Africa. We developed long-term records of bison abundance and biomass burning in Holocene midcontinent North America and compared these records to reconstructions of moisture availability and vegetation structure. We used these reconstructions to characterize bison and fire prevalence across associated moisture and vegetation gradients. We found that bison herbivory dominated biomass consumption in dry settings whereas fire dominated in wetter environments. Historical distributions of herbivory and burning in midcontinent North America resemble those of contemporary Sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting disturbance feedbacks and interactions regulate long-term consumer dynamics. Comparisons of consumer dynamics in contemporary North America with Holocene North America and Sub-Saharan Africa also reveal that fire is functionally absent from regions where it was once common, with profound ecological implications.
more »
« less
Holocene land cover change in North America: continental trends, regional drivers, and implications for vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
Abstract. Land cover governs the biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the land surface and atmosphere. Holocene vegetation-atmosphere interactions are of particular interest, both to understand the climate effects of intensifying human land use and as a possible explanation for the Holocene Conundrum, a widely studied mismatch between simulated and reconstructed temperatures. Progress has been limited by a lack of data-constrained, quantified, and consistently produced reconstructions of Holocene land cover change. As a contribution to the Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k Working Group, we present a new suite of land cover reconstructions with uncertainty for North America, based on a network of 1445 sedimentary pollen records and the REVEALS pollen-vegetation model coupled with a Bayesian spatial model. These spatially comprehensive land cover maps are then used to determine the pattern and magnitude of North American land cover changes at continental to regional scales. Early Holocene afforestation in North America was driven by rising temperatures and deglaciation, and this afforestation likely amplified early Holocene warming via the albedo effect. A continental-scale mid-Holocene peak in summergreen trees and shrubs (8.5 to 4 ka) is hypothesized to represent a positive and understudied feedback loop among insolation, temperature, and phenology seasonality. A last-millennium decrease in summergreen trees and shrubs with corresponding increases in open land likely was driven by a spatially varying combination of intensifying land use and neoglacial cooling. Land cover trends vary within and across regions, due to individualistic taxon-level responses to environmental change. Major species-level events, such as the mid-Holocene decline of eastern hemlock, may have altered regional climates. The substantial land-cover changes reconstructed here support the importance of biogeophysical vegetation feedbacks to Holocene climate dynamics. However, recent model experiments that invoke vegetation feedbacks to explain the Holocene Conundrum may have overestimated the land cover forcing by replacing Northern Hemisphere grasslands >30° N with forests; an ecosystem state that is not supported by these land cover reconstructions. These Holocene reconstructions for North America, along with similar LandCover6k products now available for other continents, serve the Earth system modeling community by providing better-constrained land cover scenarios and benchmarks for model evaluation, ultimately making it possible to better understand the regional- to global-scale processes driving Holocene land cover dynamics.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2149482
- PAR ID:
- 10583437
- Publisher / Repository:
- Climates of the Past
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Holocene temperature evolution remains poorly understood. Proxies in the early and mid‐Holocene suggest a Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) where temperatures exceed the pre‐industrial, whereas climate models generally simulate monotonic warming. This discrepancy may reflect proxy seasonality biases or errors in climate model internal feedbacks or dynamics. Using seasonally unbiased ice core reconstructions at NEEM, NGRIP, and Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2, we identify a Greenland HTM of ∼2°C above pre‐industrial, in agreement with other Northern Hemisphere proxy reconstructions. The firn‐based reconstructions are verified through borehole thermometry, producing a multi‐core, multi‐proxy reconstruction of Greenland climate from the last glacial to pre‐industrial. HTM timing across Greenland is heterogenous, occurring earlier at high elevations. Total air content measurements suggest a temperature contribution from elevation changes; regional oceanographic conditions, a weakened polar lapse rate, or variable near‐surface inversions may also be important sensitivities. Our reconstructions support climate simulations with dynamic Holocene vegetation, highlighting the importance of vegetation feedbacks.more » « less
-
We develop a prognostic model of Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM) for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus), evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae), grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4), and ragweed (Ambrosia). This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in a regional climate model (RegCM4) over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model: (1) using a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology and emission potential, and (2) a PFT-based land cover, phenology and emission potential. The resulting surface concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model, however we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions model for the general representation of the pollen phenology over the United States.more » « less
-
Tropical mountain ecosystems hold immense ecological and economic importance, yet they face disproportionate risks from shifting tropical climates. For example, present-day montane vegetation of East Africa is characterized by different plant species that grow in and are restricted to certain elevations due to environmental tolerances. As climate changes and temperature/rainfall zones move on mountains, these species must rapidly adjust their ranges or risk extinction. Paleoenvironmental records offer valuable insights into past climate and ecosystem dynamics, aiding predictions for ongoing climate change impacts. In particular, warming and wetting in tropical East Africa during the mid-Holocene resulted in both lowland and highland forest expansion. However, the relative impacts of rainfall and temperature change on montane ecosystems along with the influence of lowland forest expansion on montane communities is not completely understood. We use fossil pollen to study the vegetation changes in two lakes at different altitudes in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda: Lake Mahoma (Montane Forest belt) and Upper Kachope Lake (Afroalpine belt). Further, using the newly relaunched African Pollen Database and recent temperature reconstructions, we provide a regional synthesis of vegetation changes in the Rwenzori and then compare this with changes observed from other equatorial East African montane sites (particularly Mt Kenya). In the early to mid-Holocene in the Rwenzori Mountains, trees common today in lowland forests dominated, driven largely by warmer temperatures. After 4000 years ago (4ka), Afromontane forest trees along with grasses progressively replaced lowland trees. Not all sites experienced identical transitions. For instance, at Lake Rutundu on Mt Kenya at the same elevation as Lake Mahoma, bamboo expansion preceded Afromontane forest growth, likely influenced by variations in fire. Variance partitioning indicates that each site responded differently to changes in temperature and rainfall. Therefore, these site-specific ecological responses underscore the importance of considering biogeographic legacies as management strategies are developed, despite similarities in modern ecology.more » « less
-
Abstract. Noise in Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions can hamper the detection of centennial to millennial climate variations and diagnoses of the dynamics involved. This paper uses multiple ensembles of reconstructions to separate signal and noise and determine what, if any, centennial to millennial variations influenced North America during the past 7000 years. To do so, ensembles of temperature and moisture reconstructions were compared across four different spatial scales: multi-continent, regional, sub-regional, and local. At each scale, two independent multi-record ensembles were compared to detect any centennial to millennial departures from the long Holocene trends, which correlate more than expected from random patterns. In all cases, the potential centennial to millennial variations had small magnitudes. However, at least two patterns of centennial to millennial variability appear evident. First, large-scale variations included a prominent Mid-Holocene anomaly from 5600–5000 yr BP that increased mean effective moisture and produced temperature anomalies of different signs in different regions. The changes shifted the north–south temperature gradient in mid-latitude North America with a pattern similar to that of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Second, correlated multi-century (∼ 350 years) variations produce a distinct spectral signature in temperature and hydroclimate records along the western Atlantic margin. Both patterns differ from random variations, but they express distinct spatiotemporal characteristics consistent with separate controlling dynamics.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Posted Content:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-6
