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1. Different topographic and climatic contexts associated carbon hotspots in a carbon‐dense ecoregion

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70363  

   Carter, Trevor A; Buma, Brian (August 2025, Ecosphere)

   Abstract Forested landscapes have the potential to help offset global carbon emissions. However, current global models do not, nor are they intended to, capture the fine‐scale variability of the distributions of carbon in aboveground or belowground stocks or their simultaneous variability. Regional investigations are necessary to resolve patterns in carbon that can guide policy and planning, but regional maps that quantify multiple carbon pools are scarce. We quantified the spatial relationships of aboveground and belowground carbon stocks to understand their simultaneous variability across the forested area of the perhumid ecoregion of the Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest. Further, we identified topo‐climatic contexts associated with unique patterns in both aboveground and belowground carbon stocks by conducting an overlay analysis across the entire ecoregion. We utilized previously published estimates of carbon stocks based on extensive governmental data and machine learning techniques to model simultaneous spatial relationships of aboveground and belowground carbon stocks and generate a map for a high carbon region. We employed Pearson's correlations as well as ANOVA and Tukey honestly significant difference (HSD) tests for comparisons of topography and climate. Approximately 25% (2.6 million ha) of the area across the perhumid ecoregion had similar trends in aboveground and belowground stocks (convergence). Likewise, 20% of the ecoregion had opposite trends of aboveground and belowground stocks (divergence), and 56% of the ecoregion experienced no relationship (moderate conditions) between aboveground and belowground stocks. Convergence areas consist of carbon hotspots associated with 1.3 million ha and 794 Mg C ha⁻¹on average, or carbon cold spots associated with 1.2 million ha and 224 Mg C ha⁻¹. Areas with convergence, divergence, and moderate carbon stocks all had unique associations with slope, elevation, aspect, mean annual precipitation, and annual mean temperature. High levels of aboveground carbon were associated with steeper slopes, while high levels of belowground carbon were associated with high levels of precipitation. The interactions between slope, precipitation, and temperature correspond with carbon convergence and divergence, likely due to water accumulation which impacts the decomposition of organic matter in soil. These data are critical to regional planning and carbon policy and inform expectations for future carbon storage as the climate changes. 

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2. Modeling the Effects of Increased Hurricane Frequency on the Tropical Forest Carbon Cycle

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-024-00937-6  

   Gutiérrez_del_Arroyo, Omar; Hartman, Melannie_D; Silver, Whendee_L (October 2024, Ecosystems)

   Abstract Models project that climate change is increasing the frequency of severe storm events such as hurricanes. Hurricanes are an important driver of ecosystem structure and function in tropical coastal and island regions and thus impact tropical forest carbon (C) cycling. We used the DayCent model to explore the effects of increased hurricane frequency on humid tropical forest C stocks and fluxes at decadal and centennial timescales. The model was parameterized with empirical data from the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF), Puerto Rico. The DayCent model replicated the well-documented cyclical pattern of forest biomass fluctuations in hurricane-impacted forests such as the LEF. At the historical hurricane frequency (60 years), the dynamic steady state mean forest biomass was 80.9 ± 0.8 Mg C/ha during the 500-year study period. Increasing hurricane frequency to 30 and 10 years did not significantly affect net primary productivity but resulted in a significant decrease in mean forest biomass to 61.1 ± 0.6 and 33.2 ± 0.2 Mg C/ha, respectively (p < 0.001). Hurricane events at all intervals had a positive effect on soil C stocks, although the magnitude and rate of change of soil C varied with hurricane frequency. However, the gain in soil C stocks was insufficient to offset the larger losses from aboveground biomass C over the time period. Heterotrophic respiration increased with hurricane frequency by 1.6 to 4.8%. Overall, we found that an increasing frequency of tropical hurricanes led to a decrease in net ecosystem production by − 0.2 ± 0.08 Mg C/ha/y to − 0.4 ± 0.04 Mg C/ha/y for 30–10-year hurricane intervals, respectively, significantly increasing the C source strength of this forest. These results demonstrate how changes in hurricane frequency can have major implications for the tropical forest C cycle and limit the potential for this ecosystem to serve as a net C sink. 

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3. Sparse subalpine forest recovery pathways, plant communities, and carbon stocks 34 years after stand‐replacing fire

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1644  

   Kiel, Nathan_G; Mavencamp, Eileen_F; Turner, Monica_G (January 2025, Ecological Monographs)

   Abstract Changing global climate and wildfire regimes are threatening forest resilience (i.e., the ability to recover from disturbance). Yet distinguishing areas of “no” versus “slow” postfire forest recovery is challenging, and consequences of sparse tree regeneration for plant communities and carbon dynamics are uncertain. We studied previously forested areas where tree regeneration remained sparse 34 years after the large, stand‐replacing 1988 Yellowstone fires (Wyoming, USA) to ask the following questions: (1) What are the recovery pathways in areas of sparse and reduced forest recovery and how are they distributed across the landscape? (2) What explains variation in postfire tree regeneration density (total and by species) among sparse recovery pathways? (3) What are the implications of sparse recovery for understory plant communities? (4) How diminished are aboveground carbon stocks in areas of sparse postfire forest recovery? Tree densities and species‐specific age distributions, understory plant communities, and carbon stocks were sampled in 55 plots during summer 2022. We detected three qualitatively distinct sparse recovery pathways (persistent sparse or non‐forest, continuous tree infilling, and recent seedling and sapling establishment). Nearly half of the plots appeared “locked in” as persistently sparse or non‐forest, while the remaining may be on a slow path to forest recovery. Plots with nearby upwind seed sources as well as in situ seed pressure from young postfire trees appear likely to recover to forest. Where trees were sparse or absent, plant communities resembled those found in meadows, capturing compositional changes expected to become more common with continued forest loss. However, forest‐affinity species persisted in mesic locations, indicating mismatches between some plant communities and future forest change. Aboveground carbon stocks were low owing to minimal tree reestablishment. Almost all (96%) carbon was stored in coarse wood, a sharp departure from C storage patterns where forests are recovering. If not offset by future tree regeneration, decomposition of dead biomass will protract postfire aboveground carbon stock recovery. As global disturbance regimes and climate continue to change, determining the drivers of ecosystem reorganization and understanding how such changes will cascade to influence ecosystem structure and function will be increasingly important. 

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4. Mature Andean forests as globally important carbon sinks and future carbon refuges

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22459-8  

   Duque, Alvaro; Peña, Miguel A.; Cuesta, Francisco; González-Caro, Sebastián; Kennedy, Peter; Phillips, Oliver L.; Calderón-Loor, Marco; Blundo, Cecilia; Carilla, Julieta; Cayola, Leslie; et al (December 2021, Nature Communications)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract It is largely unknown how South America’s Andean forests affect the global carbon cycle, and thus regulate climate change. Here, we measure aboveground carbon dynamics over the past two decades in 119 monitoring plots spanning a range of >3000 m elevation across the subtropical and tropical Andes. Our results show that Andean forests act as strong sinks for aboveground carbon (0.67 ± 0.08 Mg C ha −1 y −1 ) and have a high potential to serve as future carbon refuges. Aboveground carbon dynamics of Andean forests are driven by abiotic and biotic factors, such as climate and size-dependent mortality of trees. The increasing aboveground carbon stocks offset the estimated C emissions due to deforestation between 2003 and 2014, resulting in a net total uptake of 0.027 Pg C y −1 . Reducing deforestation will increase Andean aboveground carbon stocks, facilitate upward species migrations, and allow for recovery of biomass losses due to climate change. 

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5. Moderate-resolution mapping of aboveground biomass stocks, forest structure, and composition in coastal Alaska and British Columbia

   Lamping, J; Lucash, M; Bell, D; Irvine, D; Gregory, M (May 2025, Forest Ecology and Management)

   The forests of coastal Alaska and British Columbia are globally significant for their high carbon storage capacity and complex forest structure, hosting some of the densest values of aboveground biomass in the world. These ecosystems support biodiversity, provide critical habitat, and serve as long-term carbon sinks, offering resilience to climate change. However, comprehensive, spatially continuous estimates of forest structure across this region have been limited, particularly across political boundaries. In this study, we used a Gradient Nearest Neighbor (GNN) modeling approach to integrate extensive forest inventory plot data with satellite-derived environmental variables. This approach enabled us to produce moderate-resolution (30-meter) maps of aboveground biomass, species biomass, forest age, basal area, and additional structural attributes. Our results indicated that climate and topography accounted for the majority of the explainable variation across all modeling regions. Predictions of aboveground live biomass were higher than previous estimates, particularly in Southeast Alaska, where estimates were 30–53 % greater than previous studies. Forest structure varied across the region, with older forests found in Southeast Alaska and higher tree densities in British Columbia. Collectively, the coastal forests of Alaska and British Columbia store approximately 3.58 petagrams of carbon. These spatially explicit maps offer critical insights for carbon monitoring, forest management, and biodiversity conservation across this ecologically diverse and politically fragmented landscape. 

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