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1. Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests

   https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz7005  

   Anderegg, William R.; Trugman, Anna T.; Badgley, Grayson; Anderson, Christa M.; Bartuska, Ann; Ciais, Philippe; Cullenward, Danny; Field, Christopher B.; Freeman, Jeremy; Goetz, Scott J.; et al (June 2020, Science)

   Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions. 

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2. The Engineering of Climate Engineering

   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-control-053018-023725  

   MacMartin, Douglas G.; Kravitz, Ben (May 2019, Annual Review of Control, Robotics, and Autonomous Systems)

   While reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions remains the most essential element of any strategy to manage climate change risk, it is also in principle possible to directly cool the climate by reflecting some sunlight back to space. Such climate engineering approaches include adding aerosols to the stratosphere and marine cloud brightening. Assessing whether these ideas could reduce risk requires a broad, multidisciplinary research effort spanning climate science, social sciences, and governance. However, if such strategies were ever used, the effort would also constitute one of the most critical engineering design and control challenges ever considered: making real-time decisions for a highly uncertain and nonlinear dynamic system with many input variables, many measurements, and a vast number of internal degrees of freedom, the dynamics of which span a wide range of timescales. Here, we review the engineering design aspects of climate engineering, discussing both progress to date and remaining challenges that will need to be addressed. 

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3. Impact of the Climate Matters Program on Public Understanding of Climate Change

   https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0026.1  

   Myers, Teresa A.; Maibach, Edward W.; Placky, Bernadette Woods; Henry, Kimberly L.; Slater, Michael D.; Seitter, Keith L. (October 2020, Weather, Climate, and Society)

   Abstract Climate Matters is a localized climate change reporting resources program developed to support television (TV) weathercasters across the United States. Developed as a pilot test in one media market in 2010, it launched nationwide in 2013; in the autumn of 2019 more than 797 weathercasters were participating in the program. In this paper we present evidence of the impact of the Climate Matters program on Americans’ science-based understanding of climate change. We analyzed three sets of data in a multilevel model: 20 nationally representative surveys of American adults conducted biannually since 2010 ( n = 23 635), data on when and how frequently Climate Matters stories were aired in each U.S. media market, and data describing the demographic, economic, and climatic conditions in each media market. We hypothesized that 1) reporting about climate change by TV weathercasters will increase science-based public understanding of climate change and 2) this effect will be stronger for people who pay more attention to local weather forecasts. Our results partially support the first hypothesis: controlling for market-level factors (population size, temperature, political ideology, and economic prosperity) and individual-level factors (age, education, income, gender, and political ideology), there is a significant positive association between the amount of Climate Matters reporting and some key indicators of science-based understanding (including that climate change is occurring, is primarily human caused, and causes harm). However, there was no evidence for the second hypothesis. These findings suggest that climate reporting by TV weathercasters, as enabled by the Climate Matters program, may be increasing the climate literacy of the American people. 

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4. The Impact of Rotation on Tropical Climate, the Hydrologic Cycle, and Climate Sensitivity

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105850  

   Silvers, Levi G.; Stansfield, Alyssa M.; Reed, Kevin A. (March 2024, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract This work explores the impact of rotation on tropical convection and climate. As our starting point, we use the RCEMIP experiments as control simulations and run additional simulations with rotation. Compared to radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) experiments, rotating RCE (RRCE) experiments have a more stable and humid atmosphere with higher precipitation rates. The intensity of the overturning circulation decreases, water vapor is cycled through the troposphere at a slower rate, the subsidence fraction decreases, and the climate sensitivity increases. Several of these changes can be attributed to an increased flux of latent and sensible heat that results from an increase of near‐surface wind speed with rotation shortly after model initialization. The increased climate sensitivity results from changes of both the longwave cloud radiative effect and the longwave clear‐sky radiative fluxes. This work demonstrates the sensitivity of atmospheric humidity and surface fluxes of moisture and temperature to rotation. 

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5. Plants maintain climate fidelity in the face of dynamic climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2201946119  

   Wang, Yue; Pineda-Munoz, Silvia; McGuire, Jenny L. (February 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Plants will experience considerable changes in climate within their geographic ranges over the next several decades. They may respond by exhibiting niche flexibility and adapting to changing climates. Alternatively, plant taxa may exhibit climate fidelity, shifting their geographic distributions to track their preferred climates. Here, we examine the responses of plant taxa to changing climates over the past 18,000 y to evaluate the extent to which the 16 dominant plant taxa of North America have exhibited climate fidelity. We find that 75% of plant taxa consistently exhibit climate fidelity over the past 18,000 y, even during the times of most extreme climate change. Of the four taxa that do not consistently exhibit climate fidelity, three—elm ( Ulmus ), beech ( Fagus ), and ash ( Fraxinus )—experience a long-term shift in their realized climatic niche between the early Holocene and present day. Plant taxa that migrate longer distances better maintain consistent climatic niches across transition periods during times of the most extreme climate change. Today, plant communities with the highest climate fidelity are found in regions with high topographic and microclimate heterogeneity that are expected to exhibit high climate resilience, allowing plants to shift distributions locally and adjust to some amount of climate change. However, once the climate change buffering of the region is exceeded, these plant communities will need to track climates across broader landscapes but be challenged to do so because of the low habitat connectivity of the regions. 

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