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Moving away from fossil fuels is essential for a sustainable future. Carrying out this transition without reversing the improvements in the quality of life is the ultimate challenge. While minimizing the anticipated impacts of climate change is the primary driver of decarbonization, the inevitable exhaustion of fossil energy sources should provide just as strong or perhaps even stronger incentives. The vast majority of publications outlining the pathways to “net-zero carbon emission” fall short from leading to a truly “fossil fuel-free” future without falling back to some level of dependence on fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration. While carbon capture and sequestration might be a necessary step toward decarbonization, such intermediate goals might turn into a dead end without defining the end point. The main obstacle to wider adoption of renewable energy resources is their inherent intermittency. Solar and wind are, by far, the most abundant renewable energy sources that are expected to take the lion share in transitioning to a sustainable future. Intermittency arises at multiple levels. The most recognized are theshort-term(minute-by-minute, hourly, or diurnal) variations that should be the easiest to address. Less frequently realized are theseasonalandinter-annualvariabilities.Seasonalityposes far greater challenges than minute-by-minute or hourly variations because they lead to the absence of energy resources for prolonged periods of time. Our interest is the feasibility of a future where all energy (100%) comes from renewable sources leaving no room for fossil fuels. We carry out rudimentary statistical analyses of solar radiation and wind speed time series records to quantify the degree of their intermittencies seasonally and inter-annually. We employ a simple but robust accounting of the shortfalls when the supplies do not meet demand via a modified cumulative supply/deficit analysis that incorporates energy losses arising from transporting excess energy to storage and retrieving it as needed. The presented analysis provides guidance for choosing between the installation of excess capacity or the deployment of energy storage to guarantee reliable energy services under the assumption that the energy system is powered exclusively by renewable energy sources. This paper examines the seasonal and inter-annual variability of hydropower and biofuel resources to estimate their potential to mitigate the intermittencies of solar and wind resources. The presented analyses are meant to provide crude, bulk part estimates and are not intended for planning or operational purposes of the actual energy infrastructures. The primary focus of this paper is the Northeast region of the United States using the conterminous United States as a reference to assess the viability of reducing the energy storage need in the study region via improved connectivity to the national grid. This paper builds on the modeling exercises carried out as part of the climate-induced extremes on food, energy, water systems studies.
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Amplified summer wind stilling and land warming compound energy risks in Northern Midlatitudes
Abstract Wind energy plays a critical role in mitigating climate change and meeting growing energy demands. However, the long-term impacts of anthropogenic warming on wind resources, particularly their seasonal variations and potential compounding risks, remain understudied. Here we analyze large-ensemble climate simulations in high-emission scenarios to assess the projected changes in near-surface wind speed and their broader implications. Our analyses show robust wind changes including a decrease of wind speed (i.e., stilling) up to ~15% during the summer months in Northern Midlatitudes. This stilling is linked to amplified warming of the midlatitude land and the overlying troposphere. Despite regional and model uncertainties, robust signals of warming-induced wind stilling will likely emerge from natural climate variations in the late 21st century under the high-emission scenarios. Importantly, the summertime wind stilling coincides with a projected surge in cooling demand, and their compounding may disrupt the energy supply-demand balance earlier. These findings highlight the importance of considering the seasonal responses of wind resources and the associated climate-energy risks in a warming climate. By integrating these insights into future energy planning decisions, we can better adapt to a changing climate and ensure a reliable and resilient energy future.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2327959
- PAR ID:
- 10570214
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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