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Abstract We use 47 gravitational wave sources from the Third LIGO–Virgo–Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC–3) to estimate the Hubble parameter H ( z ), including its current value, the Hubble constant H 0 . Each gravitational wave (GW) signal provides the luminosity distance to the source, and we estimate the corresponding redshift using two methods: the redshifted masses and a galaxy catalog. Using the binary black hole (BBH) redshifted masses, we simultaneously infer the source mass distribution and H ( z ). The source mass distribution displays a peak around 34 M ⊙ , followed by a drop-off. Assuming this mass scale does not evolve with the redshift results in a H ( z ) measurement, yielding H 0 = 68 − 8 + 12 km s − 1 Mpc − 1 (68% credible interval) when combined with the H 0 measurement from GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart. This represents an improvement of 17% with respect to the H 0 estimate from GWTC–1. The second method associates each GW event with its probable host galaxy in the catalog GLADE+ , statistically marginalizing over the redshifts of each event’s potential hosts. Assuming a fixed BBH population, we estimate a value of H 0 = 68 − 6 + 8 km s − 1 Mpc − 1 with the galaxy catalog method, an improvement of 42% with respect to our GWTC–1 result and 20% with respect to recent H 0 studies using GWTC–2 events. However, we show that this result is strongly impacted by assumptions about the BBH source mass distribution; the only event which is not strongly impacted by such assumptions (and is thus informative about H 0 ) is the well-localized event GW190814.
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This content will become publicly available on March 1, 2026
Bayesian framework to infer the Hubble constant from the cross-correlation of individual gravitational wave events with galaxies
Gravitational waves (GWs) from the inspiral of binary compact objects offer a one-step measurement of the luminosity distance to the event, which is essential for the measurement of the Hubble constant, 𝐻0, which characterizes the expansion rate of the Universe. However, unlike binary neutron stars, the inspiral of binary black holes is not expected to be accompanied by electromagnetic radiation and a subsequent determination of its redshift. Consequently, independent redshift measurements of such GW events are necessary to measure 𝐻0. In this study, we present a novel Bayesian approach to infer 𝐻0 by measuring the overdensity of galaxies around individual binary black hole merger events in configuration space. We model the measured overdensity using the 3D cross-correlation between galaxies and GW events, explicitly accounting for the GW event localization uncertainty. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method with 250 simulated GW events distributed within 1 Gpc in colored Gaussian noise of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors operating at O4 sensitivity. We show that such measurements can constrain the Hubble constant with a precision of ≲8% (90% highest density interval). We highlight the potential improvements that need to be accounted for in further studies before the method can be applied to real data.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2309352
- PAR ID:
- 10578930
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Physical Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Physical Review D
- Volume:
- 111
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2470-0010
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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