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Abstract The interaction effect coefficient ψ has been a much-discussed, fundamental parameter of indirect genetic effect (IGE) models since its formal mathematical description in 1997. The coefficient simultaneously describes the form of changes in trait expression caused by genes in the social environment and predicts the evolutionary consequences of those IGEs. Here, we report a striking mismatch between theoretical emphasis on ψ and its usage in empirical studies. Surveying all IGE research, we find that the coefficient ψ has not been equivalently conceptualized across studies. Several issues related to its proper empirical measurement have recently been raised, and these may severely distort interpretations about the evolutionary consequences of IGEs. We provide practical advice on avoiding such pitfalls. The majority of empirical IGE studies use an alternative variance-partitioning approach rooted in well-established statistical quantitative genetics, but several hundred estimates of ψ (from 15 studies) have been published. A significant majority are positive. In addition, IGEs with feedback, that is, involving the same trait in both interacting partners, are far more likely to be positive and of greater magnitude. Although potentially challenging to measure without bias, ψ has critically-developed theoretical underpinnings that provide unique advantages for empirical work. We advocate for a shift in perspective for empirical work, from ψ as a description of IGEs, to ψ as a robust predictor of evolutionary change. Approaches that “run evolution forward” can take advantage of ψ to provide falsifiable predictions about specific trait interactions, providing much-needed insight into the evolutionary consequences of IGEs.
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Putting Quantitative Models to the Test: An Application to the U.S.-China Trade War
Abstract The primary motivation behind quantitative work in international trade and many other fields is to shed light on the economic consequences of policy changes and other shocks. To help assess and potentially strengthen the credibility of such quantitative predictions, we introduce an IV-based goodness-of-fit measure that provides the basis for testing causal predictions in arbitrary general equilibrium environments as well as for estimating the average misspecification in these predictions. As an illustration of how to use the measure in practice, we revisit the welfare consequences of the U.S.-China trade war predicted by Fajgelbaum et al. (2020).
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- Award ID(s):
- 2242367
- PAR ID:
- 10581791
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Volume:
- 140
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0033-5533
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 1471-1524
- Size(s):
- p. 1471-1524
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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