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Abstract Although hydropower produces a relatively small portion of the electricity we use in the United States, it is a flexible and dispatchable resource that serves various critical functions for managing the electricity grid. Climate-induced changes to water availability will affect future hydropower production, and such changes could impact how the areas where the supply and demand of electricity are balanced, called balancing authority areas, are able to meet decarbonization goals. We calculate hydroclimate risk to hydropower at the balancing authority scale, which is previously underexplored in the literature and has real implications for decarbonization and resilience-building. Our results show that, by 2050, most balancing authority areas could experience significant changes in water availability in areas where they have hydropower. Balancing areas facing the greatest changes are located in diverse geographic areas, not just the Western and Northwestern United States, and vary in hydropower generation capacity. The range of projected changes experienced within each balancing area could exacerbate or offset existing hydropower generation deficits. As power producers and managers undertake increasing regional cooperation to account for introducing more variable renewable energy into the grid, analysis of risk at this regional scale will become increasingly salient.
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Hydroclimate Risks to the Western US Electric Grid under a Warming Climate
Purpose of Review Changing hydroclimate creates risks to the western U.S. electric grid, particularly when hydropower generation changes, but tools to characterize these risks are relatively new. Here, we ask: how is hydropower changing in a warming climate, and what are the consequences of hydroclimate change for the grid? Current Findings Climate projections of future hydropower generation are somewhat uncertain due to precipitation change uncertainties, but production is consistently expected to shift from summer towards winter, out of phase with changes in load. Interactions between hydrologic drought and hot temperatures are particularly problematic, yielding increased prices and greenhouse gas emissions, with uncertain shortfall risks.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2241892
- PAR ID:
- 10583082
- Publisher / Repository:
- Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2196-3010
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 68 to 76
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s40518-024-00237-6
