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Forecasting the impacts of changing climate on the phenology of plant populations is essential for anticipating and managing potential ecological disruptions to biotic communities. Herbarium specimens enable assessments of plant phenology across broad spatiotemporal scales. However, specimens are collected opportunistically, and it is unclear whether their collection dates – used as proxies of phenological stages – are closest to the onset, peak, or termination of a phenophase, or whether sampled individuals represent early, average, or late occurrences in their populations. Despite this, no studies have assessed whether these uncertainties limit the utility of herbarium specimens for estimating the onset and termination of a phenophase. Using simulated data mimicking such uncertainties, we evaluated the accuracy with which the onset and termination of population‐level phenological displays (in this case, of flowering) can be predicted from natural‐history collections data (controlling for biases in collector behavior), and how the duration, variability, and responsiveness to climate of the flowering period of a species and temporal collection biases influence model accuracy. Estimates of population‐level onset and termination were highly accurate for a wide range of simulated species' attributes, but accuracy declined among species with longer individual‐level flowering duration and when there were temporal biases in sample collection, as is common among the earliest and latest‐flowering species. The amount of data required to model population‐level phenological displays is not impractical to obtain; model accuracy declined by less than 1 day as sample sizes rose from 300 to 1000 specimens. Our analyses of simulated data indicate that, absent pervasive biases in collection and if the climate conditions that affect phenological timing are correctly identified, specimen data can predict the onset, termination, and duration of a population's flowering period with similar accuracy to estimates of median flowering time that are commonplace in the literature.
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Phenological mismatch between trees and wildflowers: Reconciling divergent findings in two recent analyses
Abstract Recent evidence suggests that community science and herbarium datasets yield similar estimates of species' phenological sensitivities to temperature. Despite this, two recent studies by Alecrim et al. (2023) and Miller et al. (2022) found very different results when using different data sources (community science and herbarium specimens, respectively) to investigate whether warming threatens wildflowers with phenological mismatch in relation to shading by deciduous trees.Here, we investigated whether differences between the two studies' results could be reconciled by testing four hypotheses related to model design, species, spatiotemporal data extent and phenophase.Hybrid model structures brought results from the two datasets closer together but did not fully reconcile the differences between the studies. Neither the species nor the phenophase selected for analysis seemed to be responsible for differences in results. Cropping the datasets to match spatial and temporal extents appeared to reconcile most differences but only at the cost of much higher uncertainty associated with reduced sample size.Synthesis: Our analysis suggests that although species‐level estimates of phenological sensitivity may be similar between community science and herbarium datasets, inherent differences in the types and extent of data may lead to contradictory inference about complex biotic interactions. We conclude that, until community science data repositories expand to match the range of climate conditions present in herbarium collections or until herbarium collections match the spatial extent and temporal frequency of community science repositories, ecological studies should ideally be evaluated using both datasets to test the possibility of biased results from either.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1936971
- PAR ID:
- 10587812
- Publisher / Repository:
- British Ecological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Ecology
- Volume:
- 112
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0022-0477
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1184 to 1199
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14317
