More Like this

1. Phenological displacement is uncommon among sympatric angiosperms

   https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.04.236935  

   Park, Daniel S.; Breckheimer, Ian K.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Lyra, Goia M.; Davis, Charles C. (August 2020, bioRxiv)

   null (Ed.)

   Interactions between species can influence access to resources and successful reproduction. One possible outcome of such interactions is reproductive character displacement. Here, the similarity of reproductive traits – such as flowering time – among close relatives growing in sympatry differ more so than when growing apart. However, evidence for the overall prevalence and direction of this phenomenon, or the stability of such differences under environmental change, remains untested across large taxonomic and spatial scales. We apply data from tens of thousands of herbarium specimens to examine character displacement in flowering time across 110 animal-pollinated angiosperm species in the eastern USA. We demonstrate that the degree and direction of phenological displacement among co-occurring closely related species pairs varies tremendously. Overall, flowering time displacement in sympatry is not common. However, displacement is generally greater among species pairs that flower close in time, regardless of direction. We additionally identify that future climate change may alter the nature of phenological displacement among many of these species pairs. On average, flowering times of closely related species were predicted to shift further apart by the mid-21st century, which may have significant future consequences for species interactions and gene flow.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest. 

   more » « less
2. Assessing Plant Phenological Character Displacement Across the Eastern United States Since 1895

   https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/c17fcc2ba0f9212938b2b5f6161615d8  

   Park, Daniel; Breckheimer, Ian; Davis, Charles (January 2020, Environmental Data Initiative)

   Reproductive character displacement has long been hypothesized to be a key determinant of speciation and co-existence in flowering plants. A central tenet of this hypothesis is that reproductive traits of close relatives growing in sympatry diverge more than they do where close relatives do not grow together. However, this idea remains untested across taxa and at large spatial scales. Here, we use data collected from tens of thousands of herbarium specimens to examine evidence for character displacement in flowering time for 91 closely-related pairs of animal-pollinated angiosperm species in the eastern USA. We see no evidence for overall phenological divergence in sympatry across regions, clades, or life histories. Rather our results indicate widespread convergence of flowering times in sympatry for species pairs that generally tend to flower close in time. We also find that climate change could alter the nature of these convergent flowering events by shifting them further apart in a majority species pair comparisons. Specifically, congeneric species in New England and the Atlantic Coastal Plain are projected to flower 2–4 days further apart, on average, by the mid-21st century as warming temperatures drive species-specific phenological shifts within genera. This may have significant consequences for species interactions and gene flow, especially if current sympatric convergence in flowering times has resulted from facilitative interactions between species. 

   more » « less
3. Warmer springs increase potential for temporal reproductive isolation among habitat patches in subalpine flowering plants

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14175  

   Rivest, Sébastien; Inouye, Brian D.; Forrest, Jessica R. K. (August 2023, Journal of Ecology)

   Abstract Flowering phenology can vary considerably even at fine spatial scales, potentially leading to temporal reproductive isolation among habitat patches. Climate change could alter flowering synchrony, and hence temporal isolation, if plants in different microhabitats vary in their phenological response to climate change. Despite the importance of temporal isolation in determining patterns of gene flow, and hence population genetic structure and local adaptation, little is known about how changes in climate affect temporal isolation within populations.Here, we use flowering phenology and floral abundance data of 50 subalpine plant species over 44 years to test whether temporal isolation between habitat patches is affected by spring temperature. For each species and year, we analysed temporal separation in peak flowering and flowering overlap between habitat patches separated by 5–950 m.Across our study species, warmer springs were associated with more temporal differentiation in flowering peaks among habitat patches, and less flowering overlap, increasing potential for temporal isolation within populations.Synthesis. By reducing opportunities for mating among plants in nearby habitat patches, our results suggest that warmer springs may reduce opportunities for gene flow within populations, and, consequently, the capacity of plant populations to adapt to environmental changes. 

   more » « less
4. Complex climate‐mediated effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology and frost risk

   https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.18893  

   Park, Daniel S.; Xie, Yingying; Ellison, Aaron M.; Lyra, Goia M.; Davis, Charles C. (April 2023, New Phytologist)

   Summary Urbanization can affect the timing of plant reproduction (i.e. flowering and fruiting) and associated ecosystem processes. However, our knowledge of how plant phenology responds to urbanization and its associated environmental changes is limited.Herbaria represent an important, but underutilized source of data for investigating this question. We harnessed phenological data from herbarium specimens representing 200 plant species collected across 120 yr from the eastern US to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on flowering and fruiting phenology and frost risk (i.e. time between the last frost date and flowering).Effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology varied significantly in direction and magnitude across species ranges. Increased urbanization led to earlier flowering in colder and wetter regions and delayed fruiting in regions with wetter spring conditions. Frost risk was elevated with increased urbanization in regions with colder and wetter spring conditions.Our study demonstrates that predictions of phenological change and its associated impacts must account for both climatic and human effects, which are context dependent and do not necessarily coincide. We must move beyond phenological models that only incorporate temperature variables and consider multiple environmental factors and their interactions when estimating plant phenology, especially at larger spatial and taxonomic scales. 

   more » « less
5. Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover

   https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.19698  

   Peng, Shijia; Ramirez‐Parada, Tadeo_H; Mazer, Susan_J; Record, Sydne; Park, Isaac; Ellison, Aaron_M; Davis, Charles_C (March 2024, New Phytologist)

   Summary Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate‐sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges.Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel ‘phenology‐informed’ SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology‐informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting.When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology‐informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes.Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait‐based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales. 

   more » « less