Abstract Wildfire alters the hydrologic cycle, with important implications for water supply and hazards including flooding and debris flows. In this study we use a combination of electrical resistivity and stable water isotope analyses to investigate the hydrologic response during storms in three catchments: one unburned and two burned during the 2020 Bobcat Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA. Electrical resistivity imaging shows that in the burned catchments, rainfall infiltrated into the weathered bedrock and persisted. Stormflow isotope data indicate that the amount of mixing of surface and subsurface water during storms was similar in all catchments, despite higher streamflow post-fire. Therefore, both surface runoff and infiltration likely increased in tandem. These results suggest that the hydrologic response to storms in post-fire environments is dynamic and involves more surface-subsurface exchange than previously conceptualized, which has important implications for vegetation regrowth and post-fire landslide hazards for years following wildfire.
more »
« less
Variability in Hydrologic Response to Wildfire Between Snow Zones in Forested Headwaters
ABSTRACT Rising temperatures and shifting fire regimes in the western United States are pushing fires upslope into areas of deep winter snowpack, where we have little knowledge of the likely hydrologic impacts of wildfire. We quantified differences in the timing and magnitude of stormflow responses to summer rainstorms among six catchments of varying levels of burn severity and seasonal snowpack cover for years 1–3 after the 2020 Cameron Peak fire. Our objectives were to (1) examine whether responsiveness, magnitude, and timing of stormflow responses to rainfall vary between burned and unburned catchments and between snow zones, and (2) identify the factors that affect these responses. We evaluated whether differences in storm hydrograph peak flow, total flow, stage rise, and lag to peak time differed by snow zone and burn category using generalised linear models. Additional predictors in these models are the maximum 60‐min rainfall intensity for each storm, the cumulative potential water deficit prior to the storm, and the year post‐fire. These models showed that the high snow zone (HSZ) has higher total stormflow than the low snow zone (LSZ), likely due to the higher soil moisture content in that area. In both snow zones, the biggest driver of the magnitude of the stormflow response was MI60. Burn category did not have a clear impact on stormflow response in the HSZ, but it did impact stage rise at the severely burned catchment in the LSZ. This was the only site that had widespread overland flow post‐fire. These results demonstrate that the stormflow responses to fire vary between snow zones, indicating a need to account for elevation and snow persistence in post‐fire risk assessments.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2302594
- PAR ID:
- 10588682
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Hydrological Processes
- Volume:
- 39
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 0885-6087
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract. Climate change affects precipitation phase, which can propagate into changes in streamflow timing and magnitude. This study examines how the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and snowmelt affects discharge in rain–snow transition zones. These zones experience large year-to-year variations in precipitation phase, cover a significant area of mountain catchments globally, and might extend to higher elevations under future climate change. We used observations from 11 weather stations and snow depths measured from one aerial lidar survey to force a spatially distributed snowpack model (iSnobal/Automated Water Supply Model) in a semiarid, 1.8 km2 headwater catchment. We focused on surface water input (SWI; the summation of rainfall and snowmelt on the soil) for 4 years with contrasting climatological conditions (wet, dry, rainy, and snowy) and compared simulated SWI to measured discharge. A strong spatial agreement between snow depth from the lidar survey and model (r2 = 0.88) was observed, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.65 for simulated and measured snow depths at snow depth stations for all modeled years (0.75 for normalized snow depths). The spatial pattern of SWI was consistent between the 4 years, with north-facing slopes producing 1.09–1.25 times more SWI than south-facing slopes, and snowdrifts producing up to 6 times more SWI than the catchment average. Annual discharge in the catchment was not significantly correlated with the fraction of precipitation falling as snow; instead, it was correlated with the magnitude of precipitation and spring snow and rain. Stream cessation depended on total and spring precipitation, as well as on the melt-out date of the snowdrifts. These results highlight the importance of the heterogeneity of SWI at the rain–snow transition zone for streamflow generation and cessation, and emphasize the need for spatially distributed modeling or monitoring of both snowpack and rainfall dynamics.more » « less
-
Abstract. In steep wildfire-burned terrains, intense rainfall can produce large runoff that can trigger highly destructive debris flows. However, the abilityto accurately characterize and forecast debris flow susceptibility in burned terrains using physics-based tools remains limited. Here, we augmentthe Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess postfiredebris flow susceptibility over a regional domain. We perform hindcast simulations using high-resolution weather-radar-derived precipitation andreanalysis data to drive non-burned baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Our simulations focus on January 2021 when an atmospheric rivertriggered numerous debris flows within a wildfire burn scar in Big Sur – one of which destroyed California's famous Highway 1. Compared to thebaseline, our burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge and shorter lags between rainfall onset and peakdischarge, consistent with streamflow observations at nearby US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gage sites. For the 404 catchments located inthe simulated burn scar area, median catchment-area-normalized peak discharge increases by ∼ 450 % compared to the baseline. Catchmentswith anomalously high catchment-area-normalized peak discharge correspond well with post-event field-based and remotely sensed debris flowobservations. We suggest that our regional postfire debris flow susceptibility analysis demonstrates WRF-Hydro as a compelling new physics-basedtool whose utility could be further extended via coupling to sediment erosion and transport models and/or ensemble-based operational weatherforecasts. Given the high-fidelity performance of our augmented version of WRF-Hydro, as well as its potential usage in probabilistic hazardforecasts, we argue for its continued development and application in postfire hydrologic and natural hazard assessments.more » « less
-
Abstract Snow duration in post‐fire forests is influenced by neighbourhoods of trees, snags, and deadwood. We used annually resolved, spatially explicit tree and tree mortality data collected in an old‐growth, mixed‐conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada, California, that burned at low to moderate severity to calculate 10 tree neighbourhood metrics for neighbourhoods up to 40 m from snow depth and snow disappearance sampling points. We developed two linear mixed models, predicting snow disappearance timing as a function of tree neighbourhood, litter density, and simulated incoming solar radiation, and two multiple regression models explaining variation in snow depth as a function of tree neighbourhood. Higher densities of post‐fire large‐diameter snags within 10 m of a sampling point were related to higher snow depth (indicating reduced snow interception). Higher densities of large‐diameter trees within 5 m and larger amounts of litter were associated with shorter snow duration (indicating increased longwave radiation emittance and accelerated snow albedo decay). However, live trees with diameters >60 cm within 10 m of a snow disappearance sampling point were associated with a longer‐lasting spring snowpack. This suggests that, despite the local effects of canopy interception and emitted longwave radiation from boles of large trees, shading from their canopies may prolong snow duration over a larger area. Therefore, conservation of widely spaced, large‐diameter trees is important in old‐growth forests because they are resistant to fire and can enhance the seasonal duration of snowmelt.more » « less
-
Post-wildfire mass wasting is a major problem throughout many regions worldwide. Recent dramatic increases in global wildfire activities coupled with a shift in wildfire-prone elevation to higher altitudes raise the need to better predict post-fire rainfall-triggered landslides. Despite its importance, only a limited number of studies have investigated landslide susceptibility in areas hit by wildfires using hydromechanical models. However, most of these studies follow either qualitative or semi-quantitative approaches without explicitly considering the fire’s effects on the impacted area’s physical behavior. This study aims to develop and employ a physics-based framework to generate susceptibility maps of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in areas disturbed by wildfire. A coupled hydromechanical model considering unsaturated flow and root reinforcement is integrated into an infinite slope stability model to simulate the triggering of shallow landslides from rainfall. The impact of fire is considered through its effects on soil and land cover properties, near-surface processes, and canopy interception. The developed model is then integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) to characterize the regional distribution of landslide potential and its variability considering topography, geology, land cover, and burn severity. The proposed framework was tested for a study site in Southern California. The site was burned in the San Gabriel Complex Fire in June 2016 and experienced widespread landsliding almost three years later following an extreme rainstorm in January 2019. The proposed framework could successfully model the location of observed shallow landslides. The model also revealed a significantly higher likelihood for slope failure in areas burned at moderate to high severities as opposed to unburned and low-burn severity areas. The findings of this study can be employed to predict the timing and general locations of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides following wildfires.more » « less
An official website of the United States government
