skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO 2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest
The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO2effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO2enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limitedEucalyptusforest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO2effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO2-driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2021898
PAR ID:
10589855
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more » ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; « less
Publisher / Repository:
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Science Advances
Volume:
10
Issue:
27
ISSN:
2375-2548
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ABSTRACT Photosynthesis is the largest flux of carbon between the atmosphere and Earth's surface and is driven by enzymes that require nitrogen, namely, ribulose‐1,5‐bisphosphate (RuBisCO). Thus, photosynthesis is a key link between the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle, and the representation of this link is critical for coupled carbon‐nitrogen land surface models. Models and observations suggest that soil nitrogen availability can limit plant productivity increases under elevated CO2. Plants acclimate to elevated CO2by downregulating RuBisCO and thus nitrogen in leaves, but this acclimation response is not currently included in land surface models. Acclimation of photosynthesis to CO2can be simulated by the photosynthetic optimality theory in a way that matches observations. Here, we incorporated this theory into the land surface component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM). We simulated land surface carbon and nitrogen processes under future elevated CO2conditions to 2100 using the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. Our simulations showed that when photosynthetic acclimation is considered, photosynthesis increases under future conditions, but maximum RuBisCO carboxylation and thus photosynthetic nitrogen demand decline. We analyzed two simulations that differed as to whether the saved nitrogen could be used in other parts of the plant. The allocation of saved leaf nitrogen to other parts of the plant led to (1) a direct alleviation of plant nitrogen limitation through reduced leaf nitrogen requirements and (2) an indirect reduction in plant nitrogen limitation through an enhancement of root growth that led to increased plant nitrogen uptake. As a result, reallocation of saved leaf nitrogen increased ecosystem carbon stocks by 50.3% in 2100 as compared to a simulation without reallocation of saved leaf nitrogen. These results suggest that land surface models may overestimate future ecosystem nitrogen limitation if they do not incorporate leaf nitrogen savings resulting from photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2
    more » « less
  2. Abstract Increased plant growth under elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) slows the pace of climate warming and underlies projections of terrestrial carbon (C) and climate dynamics. However, this important ecosystem service may be diminished by concurrent changes to vegetation carbon‐to‐nitrogen (C:N) ratios. Despite clear observational evidence of increasing foliar C:N under elevated CO2, our understanding of potential ecological consequences of foliar stoichiometric flexibility is incomplete. Here, we illustrate that when we incorporated CO2‐driven increases in foliar stoichiometry into the Community Land Model the projected land C sink decreased two‐fold by the end of the century compared to simulations with fixed foliar chemistry. Further, CO2‐driven increases in foliar C:N profoundly altered Earth's hydrologic cycle, reducing evapotranspiration and increasing runoff, and reduced belowground N cycling rates. These findings underscore the urgency of further research to examine both the direct and indirect effects of changing foliar stoichiometry on soil N cycling and plant productivity. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract In 2021, the Ocean Thematic Centre of the European Research Infrastructure “Integrated Carbon Observation System” conducted an international partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) instrument intercomparison. The goal was to understand how different types of instrumentation for the measurement of oceanpCO2compare to each other. During the two‐week long experiment, we installed various instruments in a tank facility using natural sea water (North Sea). These included direct air–water equilibration systems and membrane‐based flow‐through instruments along with submersible sensors and instruments that are normally installed on buoys and autonomous surface vehicles. In situ instruments were installed inside the tank and the flow‐through instruments were fed the same water using a pumping system. We changed the temperature (between 10°C and 28°C) and the seawaterpCO2(between 250 and 800μatm) to observe instrument responses over a wide range. Since there is no reference for surface oceanpCO2measurements, we agreed on a set of instruments serving as intercomparison reference. All data from the different instruments were then compared against the intercomparison reference during periods of stable temperature andpCO2. The study provides important information to enhance future ocean carbon monitoring networks, but makes no direct recommendation for the use of any specific sensor. A major finding is that equilibration through direct air–water contact appears to be more consistent and independent of external factors than equilibration through a membrane or photometric detection. We found several instruments with no temperature measurements at the location of equilibration or with uncalibrated temperature sensors introducing significant uncertainty in the results. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract Boreal‐Arctic regions are key stores of organic carbon (C) and play a major role in the greenhouse gas balance of high‐latitude ecosystems. The carbon‐climate (C‐climate) feedback potential of northern high‐latitude ecosystems remains poorly understood due to uncertainty in temperature and precipitation controls on carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and the decomposition of soil C into CO2and methane (CH4) fluxes. While CH4fluxes account for a smaller component of the C balance, the climatic impact of CH4outweighs CO2(28–34 times larger global warming potential on a 100‐year scale), highlighting the need to jointly resolve the climatic sensitivities of both CO2and CH4. Here, we jointly constrain a terrestrial biosphere model with in situ CO2and CH4flux observations at seven eddy covariance sites using a data‐model integration approach to resolve the integrated environmental controls on land‐atmosphere CO2and CH4exchanges in Alaska. Based on the combined CO2and CH4flux responses to climate variables, we find that 1970‐present climate trends will induce positive C‐climate feedback at all tundra sites, and negative C‐climate feedback at the boreal and shrub fen sites. The positive C‐climate feedback at the tundra sites is predominantly driven by increased CH4emissions while the negative C‐climate feedback at the boreal site is predominantly driven by increased CO2uptake (80% from decreased heterotrophic respiration, and 20% from increased photosynthesis). Our study demonstrates the need for joint observational constraints on CO2and CH4biogeochemical processes—and their associated climatic sensitivities—for resolving the sign and magnitude of high‐latitude ecosystem C‐climate feedback in the coming decades. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract The strength and persistence of the tropical carbon sink hinges on the long‐term responses of woody growth to climatic variations and increasing CO2. However, the sensitivity of tropical woody growth to these environmental changes is poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in growth predictions. Here, we used tree ring records from a Southeast Asian tropical forest to constrain ED2.2‐hydro, a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit vegetation demography. Specifically, we assessed individual‐level woody growth responses to historical climate variability and increases in atmospheric CO2(Ca). When forced with historical Ca, ED2.2‐hydro reproduced the magnitude of increases in intercellular CO2concentration (a major determinant of photosynthesis) estimated from tree ring carbon isotope records. In contrast, simulated growth trends were considerably larger than those obtained from tree rings, suggesting that woody biomass production efficiency (WBPE = woody biomass production:gross primary productivity) was overestimated by the model. The estimated WBPE decline under increasing Cabased on model‐data discrepancy was comparable to or stronger than (depending on tree species and size) the observed WBPE changes from a multi‐year mature‐forest CO2fertilization experiment. In addition, we found that ED2.2‐hydro generally overestimated climatic sensitivity of woody growth, especially for late‐successional plant functional types. The model‐data discrepancy in growth sensitivity to climate was likely caused by underestimating WBPE in hot and dry years due to commonly used model assumptions on carbon use efficiency and allocation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to constrain model predictions of individual tree‐level growth sensitivity to Caand climate against tropical tree‐ring data. Our results suggest that improving model processes related to WBPE is crucial to obtain better predictions of tropical forest responses to droughts and increasing Ca. More accurate parameterization of WBPE will likely reduce the stimulation of woody growth by Carise predicted by biosphere models. 
    more » « less